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  • From: jhart AT ipass.net (Jeff Hart)
  • To: ch-scene AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: electoral stuff
  • Date: 29 Sep 2004 09:18:52 -0700

also from "electoral-vote.com" regarding the unreliability of some
polls due to oversampling registered republicans (from the sept. 28
webmaster's message):

"Some bad news for the polling business. Strategic Vision (R) has a
new poll in Ohio showing Bush ahead 52% to 43% there. However, there
is also a Lake Snell Perry (D) poll showing the race there to be an
exact tie, with both candidates at 46%. It is becoming increasingly
clear that the pollsters are producing the results that the people
paying the bills want to hear. Even pollsters who were once thought to
be above suspicion are now suspicious. Gallup, for example, is now
normalizing its samples to include 40% Republicans, even though the
2000 exit polls showed the partisan distribution to be 39% Democratic,
35% Republican. There is scant evidence that the underlying partisan
distribution has changed much since then. Other pollsters also
normalize their data, but most don't say how. Normalizing the sample
to ensure the proper number of women, elderly voters, etc. is
legitimate provided that the pollster publicly states what has been
done."

pootiepoot AT hotmail.com (pootie poot) wrote in message
news:<900a3a3b.0409280716.4e00d5ef AT posting.google.com>...
> Hate to bust your bubble but Rasmussen shows Bush with a 13 point lead
> in NC.
>
> http://www.rasmussenreports.com/North%20Carolina%20Sept%2011.htm
>
> Electoral Vote (http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/north-carolina.html)
> shows Bush with a 5 point lead.
>
> Hopes of a southern strategy--fading




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