Biblical Hebrew Forum

["Lisbeth S. Fried" <lizfried AT umich.edu>]

Dear Rolf,
If you are unwilling to say "swan," then you are not behaving
scientifically at all. Applying Bayes' Theorem, the probability of
the bird being a swan and not a crow is the 
probability of it being a swan given that it's white = the probability
of it being white given that it is a swan (.998) times the probability that
it is a swan=.5 divided by the probability of getting a white bird = .5.
Therefore the probability that it is a swan is .998 = (.998*.5)/.5=.998.
Best,
LIz

 

> -----Original Message-----
> From: b-hebrew-bounces AT lists.ibiblio.org 
> [mailto:b-hebrew-bounces AT lists.ibiblio.org] On Behalf Of 
> furuli AT online.no
> Sent: Sunday, May 23, 2004 1:52 PM
> To: b-hebrew AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Subject: RE: [b-hebrew] Prophetic Perfect? Psalm 107
> 
> Dear Liz,
> 
> When you ask me, I would guess the bird was a swan, because 
> that would be more likely statistically speaking. But as a 
> scientist I would not venture a guess. Because I am aware of 
> the existence of white crows, according to your words, the 
> birds could have been a crows as well.
>