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  • From: "Scott Pittman" <scott@permaculture.org>
  • To: "'permaculture'" <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [permaculture] Climate and changes in the food supply
  • Date: Fri, 12 Oct 2007 11:23:26 -0600

While I appreciate the sentiment that Laura expressed in contributing this
paper by Jeff Halliday it is another of those GMO advocate pieces disguised
as caring for the poor.



Africans aren't the ones looking to the west for GMO help. The Rockefeller
Brothers and Bill Gates are putting up millions of dollars to promote GMO
research and development in Africa. No one has asked the Africans what they
think, but the billions that could be made off Africa is being shilled by
Kofi Annan former U.N. head.

Since Kofi is highly respected in Africa the unholy alliance of Gates and
Rockefeller couldn't have chosen a better salesman.



It makes sense to go after Africa, it is the last frontier of natural
resources, the final place that we haven't completely dominated with our
technology and heavy equipment. The African people are easily pushed aside
in order to benefit the Swiss bank accounts of their own leaders and now the
bottomless pockets of the West's greed bags. If you control the food
(seeds) you control the people.



I get so disheartened when I hear people use the hunger card to gain a
foothold in the agricultural processes of a culture. We now have World
Watch founder and ex-Rockefeller intern Lester Brown and yuppie tool
empresario Hawkins promote the future of biotechnology (read GMO). These
are the "good guys" aren't they?? Not really, they are as much a capitalist
as Gates or any other greed driven egomaniac.



Glad to get that off my chest.



Scott Pittman

Director

Permaculture Institute

www.permaculture.org



-----Original Message-----
From: Laura Frazier [mailto:farmgirlarts@gmail.com]
Sent: Thursday, October 11, 2007 1:07 PM
To: slowfooddc@lists.ibiblio.org; permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org
Subject: [permaculture] Climate and changes in the food supply



I found this article to be helpful in laying out many of the variables

regarding food and climate change.



Laura



foodnavigator.com

*Climate and changes in the food supply*



By Jess Halliday

14/06/2007- *The world is changing - that much few now deny. While

businesses of all sorts are striving to clean up their act, the food supply

is one area where the impact of climate change could be felt most keenly.*



*How climate change could affect global food supply

*

No-one yet knows whether climate change will be reversible - or indeed what

all its effects could be. But scientists have more than an inkling, and if

some of their predictions come to pass it does not paint a very pretty

picture for the future.



First of all, a bad harvest always meant not enough to eat for the coming

winter. Well, that's not really the case with today's globalised food

industry. A hurricane or a too-hot summer in one part of the world might

mean avocados are few and far between for a year or two, but we'll always be

able to fly in supplies from elsewhere, even if they do cost more. Right?



But the outlook could be beyond one bad harvest.



Last month the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research

(CGIAR) warned that many as 61 percent of the 51 wild peanut species

analysed and 12 percent of the 108 wild potato species analysed could become

extinct in the next fifty years, as weather patterns or soil conditions

alter.



Beyond the immediate threat of fewer peanuts and potatoes (and they expect

these predictions could also hold true for many other kinds of crops too),

the disappearance of species means that the pool of genes available to breed

more resilient crops that can withstand drought, pests and, yes, the effects

of climate change, could shrink dramatically.



The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said last week that

intensification of agricultural methods and standardisation of products are

causing some varieties to drop out and, again, limiting the genetic tool kit

we have to tinker with crops and ensure their survival.

While the CGIAR stressed the importance of seed banks in safeguarding genes

for future use, Professor Mark Tester, a plant genomics researcher at the

University of Adelaide's Australian Centre for Plant Functional Genomics and

fellow of the Australian Research Council Federation, believes that genetic

modification will play a major role in securing the food supply.



Tester and his team are working on identifying genes that make some plants

more tolerant to hostile environments like drought, salinity and frost. The

aim is to use these genes in plants that are suitable for commercial

production, using both genetic modification and conventional breeding

techniques.



So far, laboratory tests "*suggest great promise" **for the rapid

development of crops with increased salt tolerance**,* Tester reports.



While there is considerable resistance to GM in Europe, in Africa and other

regions where the food supply is already insecure it has garnered

considerably more interest for the good it could do - even if some fear the

biotech giants are exploiting the poor for their own gain.



In the same vein, Tester believes GM will come to play a greater role in

developed countries.



For instance, Australia - like other countries - is presently experiencing

increasing levels of salinity. Around 5.7m hectares of soil are affected,

with efforts to combat the problem costing an estimated A$270 m a year.



In the UK, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs lists the

potential threats of climate change on farmers' livelihoods, including

prolonged and more frequent droughts, rainfall distribution changes, rising

sea levels, changing pest loads, risk of heat stress in livestock, and

changes in the soil water balance.



While not actually referencing GM, it says: *"Individual agricultural

businesses need to be ready to seize opportunities for new crops and

markets, and to adapt to evolving pressures."*



Until quite recently, it was a fairly safe bet that most of what we grow is

intended for consumption - if not by humans then by livestock.



But another, indirect affect of climate change on agriculture is biofuel.

Much in the news as an alternative to fossil fuels, which are fast running

out and emit harmful gasses when burnt anyhow, biofuels have been blamed for

pushing up food prices as demand for corn hots up



It doesn't just stop at corn. Farmers, realizing there is a burgeoning

market, divert acrage that was previously devoted to other crops like

soybeans to corn and drive up prices of those, too.



And when gains are getting to cost so much, why waste precious supplies

feeding cows and chickens just so you can sell their meat or milk?



*The knock on effect for the food industry

*

So far, so bad for the farmers. But there are several steps in the journey

from field to fork, and it would be far-fetched to conjure up Soviet-era

images of empty shelves and lines of hungry consumers - at least in the

West.



But next in line are food ingredient suppliers and manufacturers, and the

impact on them and their bottom lines could be significant.



The prudent ingredient company keeps open several channels of supply for a

vital raw material open at once - just in case one should close up, so it

doesn't leave them high and dry.



This is particularly important for ingredients sourced from politically

unstable regions, but other factors, such as unpredictable weather, can also

throw the most well-thought out commercial strategy into disarray.



However a back up plan is not always possible. Food ingredients companies

need to keep a constant eye on their supply chain and be aware that they may

need to deal with exceptional costs.



It was nary a balance sheet this year that did not mention raw material or

energy costs as having an effect on margins.



It could be prudent to build extra costs into financial planning, and assess

whether these cost can realistically be passed on to the consumer.



R&D scientists are hot on developing alternatives to ingredients that are

crucial in formulations, but which may not always be to hand.



For instance, researchers have found that maltodextrin and whey protein

could be used instead of gum arabic; as could ezyme-modified soybean sugar.



In worse cases, manufacturers may even have to consider reformulating food

products to do without ingredients that are no longer available.



Prof Tester believes that climate change could be the decisive factor in

great GM debate. Quite simply, he thinks consumers may not have much choice

over whether or not they eat GM foods, if they want to eat at all.



If he's right, it will mark a significant turn-around from the current state

of affairs, where companies are increasingly using natural and non-GM

affirmations to reel in the socially- and environmentally-aware consumer.



The next leap in consumer consciousness could see sustainability could

become a bigger buzz-word on labels - and the first steps are already with

us.



Last year the third-party ProTerra Certification Programme from Cert ID was

launched, recognizing responsible companies and giving them the chance to

communicate that materials have not been produced in a manner that

contributes to social and environmental degradation.



The present food supply model is basically linear - from farmers, to

ingredients makers, to manufacturers, to retailers, to consumers.



But the relation between consumer awareness and industry trends is more

complex, with influences flowing in both directions. White-coated

scientists, boardroom execs, environmental activists, and ethical consumers

now broadly agree - climate is already changing the way we eat. And

practices and attitudes will have to change too. * Copyright - Unless

otherwise stated all contents of this web site are (c) 2000/2007 - Decision

News Media SAS - All Rights Reserved. For permission to reproduce any

contents of this web site, please email our Syndication department: contact

our Syndication

department<http://www.foodnavigator.com/feedback/index.asp?type=4&page=%2Fne
ws%2FprintNewsBis%2Easp%3Fid%3D77318>.

Full details for the use of materials on this site can be found in the Terms

& Conditions <http://www.foodnavigator.com/misc/misc.asp?idmisc=6>. *







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