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  • From: "Laura Frazier" <farmgirlarts@gmail.com>
  • To: slowfooddc@lists.ibiblio.org, permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: [permaculture] Climate and changes in the food supply
  • Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2007 15:07:12 -0400

I found this article to be helpful in laying out many of the variables
regarding food and climate change.

Laura

foodnavigator.com
*Climate and changes in the food supply*

By Jess Halliday
14/06/2007- *The world is changing - that much few now deny. While
businesses of all sorts are striving to clean up their act, the food supply
is one area where the impact of climate change could be felt most keenly.*

*How climate change could affect global food supply
*
No-one yet knows whether climate change will be reversible - or indeed what
all its effects could be. But scientists have more than an inkling, and if
some of their predictions come to pass it does not paint a very pretty
picture for the future.

First of all, a bad harvest always meant not enough to eat for the coming
winter. Well, that's not really the case with today's globalised food
industry. A hurricane or a too-hot summer in one part of the world might
mean avocados are few and far between for a year or two, but we'll always be
able to fly in supplies from elsewhere, even if they do cost more. Right?

But the outlook could be beyond one bad harvest.

Last month the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research
(CGIAR) warned that many as 61 percent of the 51 wild peanut species
analysed and 12 percent of the 108 wild potato species analysed could become
extinct in the next fifty years, as weather patterns or soil conditions
alter.

Beyond the immediate threat of fewer peanuts and potatoes (and they expect
these predictions could also hold true for many other kinds of crops too),
the disappearance of species means that the pool of genes available to breed
more resilient crops that can withstand drought, pests and, yes, the effects
of climate change, could shrink dramatically.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said last week that
intensification of agricultural methods and standardisation of products are
causing some varieties to drop out and, again, limiting the genetic tool kit
we have to tinker with crops and ensure their survival.
While the CGIAR stressed the importance of seed banks in safeguarding genes
for future use, Professor Mark Tester, a plant genomics researcher at the
University of Adelaide's Australian Centre for Plant Functional Genomics and
fellow of the Australian Research Council Federation, believes that genetic
modification will play a major role in securing the food supply.

Tester and his team are working on identifying genes that make some plants
more tolerant to hostile environments like drought, salinity and frost. The
aim is to use these genes in plants that are suitable for commercial
production, using both genetic modification and conventional breeding
techniques.

So far, laboratory tests "*suggest great promise" **for the rapid
development of crops with increased salt tolerance**,* Tester reports.

While there is considerable resistance to GM in Europe, in Africa and other
regions where the food supply is already insecure it has garnered
considerably more interest for the good it could do - even if some fear the
biotech giants are exploiting the poor for their own gain.

In the same vein, Tester believes GM will come to play a greater role in
developed countries.

For instance, Australia - like other countries - is presently experiencing
increasing levels of salinity. Around 5.7m hectares of soil are affected,
with efforts to combat the problem costing an estimated A$270 m a year.

In the UK, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs lists the
potential threats of climate change on farmers' livelihoods, including
prolonged and more frequent droughts, rainfall distribution changes, rising
sea levels, changing pest loads, risk of heat stress in livestock, and
changes in the soil water balance.

While not actually referencing GM, it says: *"Individual agricultural
businesses need to be ready to seize opportunities for new crops and
markets, and to adapt to evolving pressures."*

Until quite recently, it was a fairly safe bet that most of what we grow is
intended for consumption - if not by humans then by livestock.

But another, indirect affect of climate change on agriculture is biofuel.
Much in the news as an alternative to fossil fuels, which are fast running
out and emit harmful gasses when burnt anyhow, biofuels have been blamed for
pushing up food prices as demand for corn hots up

It doesn't just stop at corn. Farmers, realizing there is a burgeoning
market, divert acrage that was previously devoted to other crops like
soybeans to corn and drive up prices of those, too.

And when gains are getting to cost so much, why waste precious supplies
feeding cows and chickens just so you can sell their meat or milk?

*The knock on effect for the food industry
*
So far, so bad for the farmers. But there are several steps in the journey
from field to fork, and it would be far-fetched to conjure up Soviet-era
images of empty shelves and lines of hungry consumers - at least in the
West.

But next in line are food ingredient suppliers and manufacturers, and the
impact on them and their bottom lines could be significant.

The prudent ingredient company keeps open several channels of supply for a
vital raw material open at once - just in case one should close up, so it
doesn't leave them high and dry.

This is particularly important for ingredients sourced from politically
unstable regions, but other factors, such as unpredictable weather, can also
throw the most well-thought out commercial strategy into disarray.

However a back up plan is not always possible. Food ingredients companies
need to keep a constant eye on their supply chain and be aware that they may
need to deal with exceptional costs.

It was nary a balance sheet this year that did not mention raw material or
energy costs as having an effect on margins.

It could be prudent to build extra costs into financial planning, and assess
whether these cost can realistically be passed on to the consumer.

R&D scientists are hot on developing alternatives to ingredients that are
crucial in formulations, but which may not always be to hand.

For instance, researchers have found that maltodextrin and whey protein
could be used instead of gum arabic; as could ezyme-modified soybean sugar.

In worse cases, manufacturers may even have to consider reformulating food
products to do without ingredients that are no longer available.

Prof Tester believes that climate change could be the decisive factor in
great GM debate. Quite simply, he thinks consumers may not have much choice
over whether or not they eat GM foods, if they want to eat at all.

If he's right, it will mark a significant turn-around from the current state
of affairs, where companies are increasingly using natural and non-GM
affirmations to reel in the socially- and environmentally-aware consumer.

The next leap in consumer consciousness could see sustainability could
become a bigger buzz-word on labels - and the first steps are already with
us.

Last year the third-party ProTerra Certification Programme from Cert ID was
launched, recognizing responsible companies and giving them the chance to
communicate that materials have not been produced in a manner that
contributes to social and environmental degradation.

The present food supply model is basically linear - from farmers, to
ingredients makers, to manufacturers, to retailers, to consumers.

But the relation between consumer awareness and industry trends is more
complex, with influences flowing in both directions. White-coated
scientists, boardroom execs, environmental activists, and ethical consumers
now broadly agree - climate is already changing the way we eat. And
practices and attitudes will have to change too. * Copyright - Unless
otherwise stated all contents of this web site are (c) 2000/2007 – Decision
News Media SAS – All Rights Reserved. For permission to reproduce any
contents of this web site, please email our Syndication department: contact
our Syndication
department<http://www.foodnavigator.com/feedback/index.asp?type=4&page=%2Fnews%2FprintNewsBis%2Easp%3Fid%3D77318>.
Full details for the use of materials on this site can be found in the Terms
& Conditions <http://www.foodnavigator.com/misc/misc.asp?idmisc=6>. *




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