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  • From: Lori <bakequery@aol.com>
  • To: livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] warming trends
  • Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2013 21:05:50 -0500 (EST)

According to the Milankovitch Cycle theory, the temperature fluctuation on the changed orbit would be an increase in temperature of 6.8% higher at it's worst position to the sun, in ~26,000 years.  It's all theory, based on warming trends and studying ice cores.   If it's true and then you add the greenhouse effect to THAT, we are talking some serious heat on the planet. 
 
"Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 11,800 CE ; the last maximum was reached in 8,700 BCE. This trend, by itself, tends to make winters warmer and summers colder with an overall cooling trend leading to an ice age, but the 20th century instrumental temperature record shows a sudden rise in global temperatures and a concurring glacial melt has led the scientific community to attribute recent changes to greenhouse gas emissions.[7]
 
Precession is the trend in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars, with a period of roughly 26,000 years. This gyroscopic motion is due to the tidal forces exerted by the Sun and the Moon on the solid Earth, which has the shape of an oblate spheroid rather than a sphere. The Sun and Moon contribute roughly equally to this effect.
When the axis points toward the Sun in perihelion, one polar hemisphere has a greater difference between the seasons while the other has milder seasons. The hemisphere that is in summer at perihelion receives much of the corresponding increase in solar radiation, but that same hemisphere in winter at aphelion has a colder winter. The other hemisphere will have a relatively warmer winter and cooler summer.
When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion occur near the equinoxes, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will have similar contrasts in the seasons.
At present, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere's summer, and aphelion is reached during the southern winter. Thus the southern hemisphere seasons are somewhat more extreme than the northern hemisphere seasons, when other factors are equal."
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Lynn Montgomery <sunfarm@toast.net>
To: livingontheland <livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org>
Sent: Mon, Jan 14, 2013 4:46 pm
Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] warming trends

These orbital fluctuations take place over such a long time, there is no way they could be the cause of the dramatic rise in global temps we are experiencing. It matters not what the cause when one encounters this:
 
Recently, scientist Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication was interviewed on PBS's Bill Moyers. The following is an excerpt:
 
""Wow, you know, four, five degrees, that doesn't sound like very much. I mean, I see the temperature change more from night to day." But it's the wrong way to think about it. I mean, think about when you get sick and you get a fever, okay. Your body is usually at, you know, 98.7 degrees.
If your temperature rises by one degree you feel a little off, but you can still go to work. You're fine. It rises by two degrees and you're now feeling sick, in fact you're probably going to take the day off because you definitely don't feel good. And in fact, you're getting everything from hot flashes to cold chills, okay.
At three you're starting to get really sick. And at four degrees and five degrees your brain is actually slipping into a coma, okay, you're close to death. I think there's an analogy here of that little difference in global average temperature just like that little difference in global body temperature can have huge implications as you keep going. And so unfortunately the world after two and especially after three degrees starts getting much more frightening, and that's exactly what the scientists keep telling us. But will we pay attention to those warning signs?"
 
 "The altar cloth of one aeon is the doormat of the next."
     -Mark Twain
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