Healthy soil and sustainable growing

["Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net>]

Similar to Winona's lecture, Ikerd sums it all up for me. See his mountains 
of papers at the other link there.

paul tradingpost@lobo.net
------------------------------------------

2050 in America, Food and Farms of the Future
(excerpts, citations on website)
By John Ikerd, Professor Emeritus of Agricultural Economics, University of 
Missouri Columbia College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources
http://web.missouri.edu/~ikerdj/papers/Joliet%20JC%20--%202050%20-%20Econ-Food-Farms.htm
Many more papers and books http://web.missouri.edu/~ikerdj/

A “food revolution” is erupting all across America. Last spring Jamie Oliver, 
an outspoken British chef turned activist, called for a “food revolution” in 
America.[1] The occasion was the premier of a six-episode reality show on ABC 
Television. The premise of the show was that our physical health is linked 
directly to the foods we eat. In the first episode, Oliver pointed out that 
today’s children are the first generation whose members are expected to live 
shorter lives than their parents. It’s not the kids’ fault; they eat what 
their parents and other adults choose to feed them, or at least allow them to 
eat. Too often, this means whatever is cheapest, quickest, and most 
convenient. In our pursuit of quick, convenient, cheap food we are destroying 
the health of our children and the future of our nation.

Best-selling books, such as Fast Food Nation[2] and Omnivore’s Dilemma,[3] 
have awakened mainstream society to the dramatic changes that have been 
taking place in our food system. Video documentaries such as Future of 
Food,[4] Broken Limbs,[5] Food Inc[6] and Fresh; the Movie[7] provide 
gripping images of the negative impacts of our industrial food system on 
nature, our society, and even the future of humanity. They all tell the same 
story of a food system that is lacking in ecological, social, and economic 
integrity. The tipping point may be growing public concerns about diet 
related health problems and the associated costs of healthcare. The HBO 
network has a new multi-documentary project underway linking the rise in 
obesity and other diet related health problems to the industrialization of 
the food system.

The various books and documentaries also tell a story of hope for the future 
through the voices and images of the farmers and consumers who together are 
creating a new, sustainable food system. The farmers may label themselves 
organic, biodynamic, ecological, natural, holistic, or choose no label at 
all. The foods may be natural, organic, free-range, cage-free, locally grown, 
or any number of other distinctions from conventional, industrial foods. 
These farmers and consumers are creating a permanent, sustainable agriculture 
and a healthful, sustainable food system. They are creating a food system 
that has ecological, social, and economic integrity. These farmers and their 
customers are leading the “good food revolution.”

The “local food movement” is the most prominent dimension of the good food 
revolution at present. People tend to underestimate the importance of local 
food because they associate it with farmers markets and community supported 
agricultural organizations or CSAs – and more recently, with home gardens and 
community gardens. While these are and will continue to be important, the 
local food movement is probably most accurately defined by the growing number 
of retail food stores, restaurants, and institutional food buyers who are 
committed to sourcing as much food as possible from local growers.

The transformation is being driven by questions of sustainability. 
Sustainability is not just a buzzword; it is the fundamental question 
confronting both the developed and developing worlds of today.  It asks 
whether our current way of life is sustainable – ecologically, socially, and 
economically. It asks whether we can meet the needs of the present without 
diminishing opportunities for the future. Virtually every major U.S. 
corporation, government agency, and non-profit organization now feels 
compelled to have a major sustainability initiative. These initiatives deal 
with issues of environmental protection, social equity, and economic 
viability. When we ask the deeper questions of sustainability, we realize 
that we eventually must change virtually every aspect of our economy, our 
society, and our individual lives.

Most important, we must change our economy. Rates of economic growth that we 
have come to consider as “normal” quite simply are not sustainable. The 
economy of the industrial era, particularly of the past century, was an 
aberration in human history. For example, if economic growth rates of 3% to 
4% had persisted over the past 2010 years, since the year one, a global Gross 
Domestic Product of one-dollar at that time would have grown into a global 
economy that would provide every person on earth, all six-and-one-half 
billion of us, with enough money to spend a million dollars every second of 
every day of the year. Furthermore, every 20-yrs people would have twice as 
much to spend as the 20-yrs before. The US economy of some $10-trillion 
obviously cannot sustain growth rates of 3%-4% for another 2000 or even 100 
more years.

The economic growth of the industrial era was possible only because of 
abundant supplies of easily accessible energy. First it was the old-growth 
forests, then surface coal, and for the last century shallow deposits of oil 
and natural gas. But the days of cheap, abundant energy are over. The old 
forests are gone, tops of mountains are being blown off to get the remaining 
coal, and the remaining reserves of oil and gas are deep beneath the ocean 
floor or in remote corners of the earth hardly touched by civilization. In 
addition, continued reliance on fossil energy poses unacceptable 
environmental risks, such as global climate change, that threaten the future 
of human life on earth. The alternative that eventually will replace fossil 
energy – wind, water, photovoltaics, and direct solar – will be less 
plentiful and more costly than fossil energy. Denial and neglect cannot 
change the hard, cold facts: the industrial era of economic growth is over.

Americans simply must accept the fact that the economic growth rates of the 
past century are not sustainable. The new post-industrial era must be an era 
of slow growth, at times even no growth. Yet it will be a time of human 
progress, if we successfully weather the transition. If we choose wisely, the 
transformation could well be a major step forward in the betterment of human 
life on earth. The father of Keynesian economic theory, John Maynard Keynes, 
anticipated this new era back in the 1920s.  He wrote, “the economic problem 
may be solved, or at least within sight of solution, within a hundred years. 
This means that the economic problem is not… the permanent problem of the 
human race.”[10] Man’s permanent problem will be “how to use his freedom from 
pressing economic cares… to live wisely and agreeably and well.” The 
challenge for the vast majority of Americans, as well as the rest of the so 
called developed world, is not to restore unsustainable economic growth, but 
instead to learn to live “wisely, agreeably, and well.”

In a more enlightened world of 2050, the so called lesser-developed countries 
of the world will not have consumed all of the earth’s natural resources in 
achieving sustainable levels of economic development. They will have learned 
that beyond about $10,000-$15,000 per person in Gross Domestic Product, 
roughly equivalent to per capita income, there has been no relationship 
between economic growth and overall quality of life.[12] In addition 
countries where people are more equitable economically, where there is less 
disparity between the rich and poor, people tend to be happier, regardless of 
their absolute level of income. Thus developing countries of the future will 
balance their modest needs for economic growth with the need to build 
stronger and more equitable societies. Their quality of life also will be 
enhanced as they fulfill their ethical responsibility to future generations 
by being good stewards of their nations’ natural resources.

In a more enlightened world, peoples’ lives will be more socially connected 
and their old age will be more economically secure.  Once these social and 
economic security incentives for larger families are no longer present, 
global population will level out and stabilize at a comfortable carrying 
capacity for the earth’s resources. Increasing population will occur only if 
and when increases in efficiency of resource use make a larger population 
sustainable. Otherwise, there will be no further need for economic growth. 
The economic problem will be solved for all.

The enlightened America of 2050 will be organized quite differently from the 
centralized, consolidated, hierarchal society and economy of today. Much of 
the centralized political power would have been devolved to state and local 
levels. The federal government will return to its historic constitutional 
purpose of ensuring equal access to things to which all Americans have equal 
rights. State governments will focus on those things that can be and need to 
be done differently in different geographic regions and cultures within the 
country. This will leave local governments with the other things that must be 
done for the common good of society but cannot or will not be done by 
individuals, families, or other informal groups within communities.

The American society and economy will also have devolved, decentralized, and 
re-localized to better meet the needs of the post-industrial, sustainable 
society. American communities of the future, both rural and urban, will not 
be economically self-sufficient, but locally owned and operated businesses 
will be capable of meeting most basic day-to-day needs of their local 
community. Local businesses will be sustained by the commitment of the 
community to support its local economy. Large corporate manufacturers and 
retailers will be supplemental or secondary providers of goods and services 
but will not dominate local economies. Local builders will provide 
affordable, energy-efficient housing. Energy-generating residences and 
locally-owned electric utilities will meet most energy needs of the community 
with wind, water, and solar generated electricity. Local farmers will provide 
sustainably-grown foods.

Returning to the food system, by the year 2050, fossil energy depletion and 
environmental degradation will have made today’s industrial, global food 
system economically obsolete. It’s not just a matter of rising transportation 
costs. The economic feasibility of the entire industrial food system – 
production, processing, packaging, refrigeration, cold storage, mass 
merchandizing – depends on an abundance of relatively cheap fossil energy. 
The American food system currently claims about 20% of total fossil energy 
use and accounts for an even larger percentage of emissions of CO2 and other 
greenhouse gases.[13] Without cheap fossil energy for fertilizers and fuel, 
agriculture will be forced to return to organic and other regenerative, 
sustainable approaches to production that rely on green plants to capture and 
store solar energy in the healthy, organic soils. By the year 2050, the 
American food system will have been forced to devolve to production and 
distribution to accommodate local and regional markets. National and global 
food markets will be primarily high-value, non-perishable, 
minimally-processed foods, such as coffee and spices. Americans will be 
healthier and health care costs will be in decline.

The American farms of 2050 will be smaller because sustainable farms are 
inherently more management and labor intensive, meaning more farms and more 
opportunities for farmers. Such farms will fit the new paradigm for 
technology development by employing more people in the process of producing a 
given amount of food. It takes knowledge, creativity, innovation, and 
entrepreneurship to produce food sustainably. Human scale technologies, such 
as the microcomputer, will make knowledge more easily acquired and creativity 
and entrepreneurship more effectively used.  Even today, organic and other 
sustainable systems of food production can produce as much or even more than 
industrial systems per acre of land or dollar of investment. They just 
require more thoughtful, insightful, caring farmers. Why not have more such 
farmers?

Farmers markets, CSAs, and home gardens will grow in importance and more 
locally grown foods will move through local supermarkets, restaurants, and 
institutions. However, the food systems of the future will more closely 
resemble today’s multi-farm CSAs or local food cooperatives. Grown 
Locally,[14] Idaho’s Bounty,[15] and the Oklahoma Food Cooperative,[16]for 
example, are cooperative organizations of farmers and consumers that offer a 
variety of vegetables, fruits, meats, eggs, cheese, baked goods, flowers, and 
herbs produced by local farmers. Many items are available as CSA shares, 
standing orders, or for week-by-week purchase. Customers have the option of 
on-farm pick-up, local delivery points, or delivery to the door. Websites 
allow producers to post what they have available each week, ensuring that 
products sold are available for delivery and allowing customers to place or 
revise their orders on the website. Such systems have the potential to be far 
more energy efficient and environmentally benign than are today’s systems of 
food production and distribution. In the world of 2050, with the next 
generations of the Internet and Fed-Ex, a global network of sustainable, 
community food systems will have replaced the industrial, global food system 
as the dominate source of food.

The most successful American communities in 2050, rural and urban, will be 
those learned from the “good food revolution” of the early 2000s. They will 
be communities that have preserved and restored the fertile farmlands that 
remained in the areas where most of the cities and towns in American were 
initially settled. They will be communities that understood that the local 
food movement was not just about restoring healthy diets and healthy bodies, 
although health is obviously essential to physical well-being. Local foods 
provide both the motivation and means of reconnecting people in meaningful 
personal and social relationships. Local foods also allow people to support 
their local farmers economically, and thus support their local economies. 
Through local farmers, people reconnect spiritually with the land and regain 
a sense of purpose and meaning in life through a commitment to stewardship of 
nature. The good food revolution is the precursor to the “good life 
revolution” – an ecological, social, and economic revolution.

However, none of these good things will be possible unless we abandon our 
pursuit of narrow, individual economic self-interest and return to the 
broader pursuit of happiness and quality of life. Obviously, we are physical 
beings, but the material needs are quite modest and well within the earth’s 
capacity to sustain a regenerative economy. We can’t sustain continual 
economic growth but we can sustain sufficient economic growth to meet the 
basic needs of all, if we choose to do so.  We can sustain continuing 
prosperity even without economic growth, if we find the wisdom to focus our 
time and energy on relationships and ethics instead of economics. We can 
sustain prosperity through harmony and balance among the material, social, 
and spiritual dimensions of our lives. There are no limits to human 
betterment, if we cease our striving for wealth and focus on learning the 
true art of living.