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  • From: "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net>
  • To: livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: [Livingontheland] a good plan - or the only plan?
  • Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2010 20:32:20 -0600


"We must acknowledge that all successful corrections will be local. And
that plays to an often-overlooked point: The decline of fossil fuels will
require a higher eyes-to-acre ratio, which means more farmers on the land."


The 50-year farm bill
http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/6728#more
Posted by Gail the Actuary on July 18, 2010 - 10:25am in The Oil Drum:
Campfire
Topic: Policy/Politics

This is an article by Wes Jackson that was previously published by Solutions
Journal. We have included a few Campfire questions at the end.

The Trouble with Agriculture
---------------------------------------------

Across the farmlands of the U.S. and the world, climate change overshadows an
ecological and cultural crisis of unequaled scale: soil erosion, loss of wild
biodiversity, poisoned land and water, salinization, expanding dead zones,
and the demise of rural communities. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
(MEA) concludes that agriculture is the “largest threat to biodiversity and
ecosystem function of any single human activity.”1 Up to 40 percent of global
croplands are experiencing soil erosion, reduced fertility, or overgrazing.2
It is likely that agricultural acreage worldwide will expand over the next
two to three decades, especially as the human population increases to eight
to 10 billion people. The same thing that drives climate change helps drive
the agricultural crisis—cheap fossil fuel.

In the U.S., commodity subsidies that focus on bushels per acre, an
industrial model that much of the world wants to imitate, continue to drive
this increasingly unsustainable agricultural economy. Over the past century,
the number of farms in the U.S. has declined as the average farm size has
increased. At the same time, the number of commodities per farm—such as corn,
wheat, barley, soybeans, alfalfa, tobacco, potatoes, pigs, and chickens—has
decreased from an average of five to just one product.3 American agriculture
is guided by five-year farm bills and heavily entrenched subsidies. Export
policy is the driver designed to offset our nation’s balance of payments
deficit, which includes the purchase of foreign oil.

We need a long-term, conserving vision to counteract these trends. Five-year
farm bills should be mileposts in a 50-year journey to end degradation of our
agricultural capital. Where do we begin? The United States is a big country,
and the ecological mosaic is daunting. There are the soils of the upper
Midwest, deep and rich in nutrients from the Pleistocene’s scouring ice and
watered by the moisture favorably blown from the Gulf of Mexico. What have we
done with this land? Soil erosion, nitrogen fertilizer, and pesticides have
seriously degraded this gift of good land, the best contiguous stretch in the
world. In California, rich valleys and reliable snow pack in a Mediterranean
environment lessen the problem of soil erosion. But there is spraying,
salinization, accumulation of toxins in the delta, and loss of farmland to
sprawl.

One could continue the inventory, but the point is that each region has its
own problems and opportunities. We must acknowledge that all successful
corrections will be local. And that plays to an often-overlooked point: The
decline of fossil fuels will require a higher eyes-to-acre ratio, which means
more farmers on the land. Cultural and ecological adaptation become one
subject.

Looking broadly, the USDA and the secretary of agriculture should see that
our first order of business should be to prevent our soils from eroding and
declining in quality—they are the source of most of the nutrients that feed
us. If our soils are protected, the water falling on them can be protected
and properly used on its trip to the atmosphere, ocean, or aquifer. The
United States has about 400 million acres of cropland, with around 36 million
acres placed in the Conservation Reserve Program.4,5 The secretary of
agriculture must look at the aggregate use of these croplands. At any one
time, 80 percent of that land grows annual crops. The other 20 percent is in
perennials, such as pastures or hay, although, to be clear, sometimes in a
rotation with annuals such as corn or sorghum.

Such an overview quickly draws one’s attention to the core of what might be
called “the problem of agriculture”: essentially all of the high-yield crops
that feed humanity—including rice, wheat, corn, soybeans, and peanuts—are
annuals. With cropping of annuals, alive just part of the year and weakly
rooted even then, comes more loss of precious soil, nutrients, and water.



The Land Institute
Summary of the possible. Protecting our soils with perennials.

A. 2010: Hay or grazing operations will continue as they exist. Preparations
for subsidy changes begin.

B. 2015: Subsidies become incentive to substitute perennial grass in
rotations for feed grain in meat, egg, and milk production.

C. 2020: The first perennial wheat, Kernza™, will be farmer-ready for limited
acreage.

D. 2030: Educate farmers and consumers about new perennial grain crops.

E. 2045: New perennial grain varieties will be ready for expanded
geographical range. Also potential for grazing and hay.

F. 2055: High-value annual crops are mainly grown on the least erodible
fields as short rotations between perennial crops.

But the problem of agriculture is about more than the annual condition. It is
also about growing crops in vast, unnatural monocultures. This makes harvest
easy, but there is only one kind of root architecture in any given field; the
living roots are not there year-round, and therefore, manage nutrients and
water poorly. Waste of both is the rule.

The trouble with agriculture is not a recent development. Soil erosion and
soil salting brought down civilizations long before the industrial and
chemical era. Why the crisis now? Simply, a surge in human population—which
has doubled from about 3.3 billion in 1965 to almost 7 billion now—with land
lost to sprawl and the remainder used far more intensively, and the
accumulation of large dead zones in our oceans.

What is the alternative? Prudence requires one to first look to nature, the
ultimate source of our food and production, no matter how independent we feel
we have become. If we look at essentially all of the natural land ecosystems
within the ecosphere, from alpine meadows to rainforests, we see that
mixtures of perennial plants rule.6 Annuals are opportunists that sprout,
reproduce, throw seeds, and die. Perennials hold on for the long haul,
protect the soil, and manage nutrients and water to a fine degree. In this
regard perennials are superior to annuals, whether in polyculture or
monoculture. The Land Institute’s long-standing mission has been to
perennialize several major crops, such as wheat, sorghum, and sunflower, and
domesticate a few wild perennial species to produce food like their annual
analogs. The goal is to grow them in various mixtures according to what the
landscape requires. With the pre-agricultural ecosystem as the standard, the
institute is attempting to bring as many processes of the wild to the farm as
possible, below as well as above the surface.

A 50-Year Vision - A Brief Summary

Five-year farm bills address:

* Exports
* Commodities
* Subsidies
* Some soil conservation measures
* Food programs

A 50-Year Farm Bill would be a program using these bills as mileposts,
adding larger, more sustainable goals to existing programs:

* Protect soil from erosion
* Cut fossil-fuel dependence to zero
* Sequester carbon
* Reduce toxics in soil and water
* Manage nitrogen carefully
* Reduce dead zones
* Cut wasteful water use
* Preserve or rebuild farm communities.

Because these perennial crops will not begin to be ready for the farmer on
any appreciable scale for another quarter-century, we must make do by
perennializing the landscape in other ways. A first step should be to
increase the number of pastures and have fewer livestock in the feedlot by
phasing out subsidies for production-oriented grain commodities, that
industry’s lifeblood. Saving the soil and allowing water to improve is more
important than having too much meat or corn sugar.

What about California and elsewhere across the mosaic, where soil erosion is
less serious? First, perennials are superior for managing nutrients and
water.7 Second, species mixtures can form barriers to outbreaks of insects
and epidemics of disease. So nature’s example can be referred to no matter
where the landscape. This will start what Wendell Berry calls a “conversation
with nature,” which begins with three questions: What was here? What will
nature require of us here? And what will nature help us do here?

To address these issues, the following proposal for a 50-Year Farm Bill is
offered for action.
A 50-Year Plan for Change

Current USDA planning uses five-year plans that are really just instruments
for protecting our current failing system. They address exports—designed to
offset the nation’s deficit, including the purchase of foreign oil—commodity
subsidies that focus on bushels per acre, subsidies, food programs, and some
soil measures. We suggest using the five-year increments to build a radically
different type of agriculture: a 50-year vision of perennial, low-impact
agriculture.

In the short run, this plan will encourage farmers to increase the use of
perennial grasses and legumes in crop rotations. This will help protect our
soils and reduce the need for fertilizer, while preparing farms for the use
of perennial grains.

Pastures and perennial forage crops are already available in permanent stands
and rotations. We propose incentives that would maintain the present
perennial acres and increase their presence in rotations. When perennial
grains become available, they will require no financial subsidy, since they
will represent a compelling alternative.

As more of our acreage switches to perennial agriculture, and with the 50
years of concerted investment in research, education, and incentives
envisaged in the plan, we can expect to see perennial crops increase from 20
to 80 percent of the land.

American agriculture is widely used as a model for the rest of the world.
Although a U.S. perennial program would not solve all agricultural problems,
it could be helpful around the world: Some perennialized grains could be
planted elsewhere. Many techniques developed to perennialize U.S. agriculture
could be applied to native plants in other countries. American expertise
could be exported much as it is today, to help with the sustainability
problems of agriculture elsewhere. In other words, the same American approach
to improving agriculture that led to the first worldwide Green Revolution
could lead to a sustainable green revolution.
At the Heart of the Plan

We recognize that breeding perenniality into a broad spectrum of grain crops
will take time. Even so, prototypes have thrived for several years in
Kansas.8 As their yields increase, they will replace their annual
relatives—one prototype in as few as 10 years. Initially, these crops will be
released on a limited scale, and researchers will work with farmers on
agronomic problems, such as seeding density and planting time, as they arise.

Wheat has been hybridized with several different perennial species to produce
viable, fertile offspring. We have produced thousands of such plants. Many
rounds of crossing, testing, and selection will be necessary before perennial
wheat varieties are available for use on the farm. Kernza™ is our trademark
name for Intermediate Wheatgrass, Thinopyrum intermedium, a perennial
relative of wheat. Using parental strains from the USDA and other sources, we
have established genetically diverse populations. In 2009, we harvested 30
acres and planted an additional 126. The overall nutritional quality is
superior to that of annual wheat.

Grain Sorghum is a drought-hardy feed grain in North America and a staple
human food crop in Asia and Africa, where it provides reliable harvests in
places where hunger is always a threat. It can be hybridized with the
perennial species Sorghum halepense. We have produced large plant populations
from hundreds of such hybrids and have selected perennial strains with seed
size and grain yields up to 50 percent of those of annual grain sorghum.

Illinois Bundleflower, Desmanthus illinoiensis, is a native prairie legume
that fixes atmospheric nitrogen and produces abundant protein-rich seed. It
is one of our strongest candidates for domestication as a crop. We have
assembled a large collection of seed from a wide geographical area and have a
breeding program. We see this plant as a partial substitute for the soybean.

Sunflower is another annual crop that we have hybridized with perennial
species in its genus, including Helianthus maximiliani, H. rigidus, and H.
tuberosus (commonly known as Jerusalem Artichoke). Breeding work has turned
out strongly perennial plants. Genetic stabilization will improve their seed
production.

Upland fields of annual rice are highly vulnerable to erosion, yet millions
of people in Asia depend on them. In the 1990s, the International Rice
Research Institute achieved significant progress toward breeding a perennial
upland rice using crosses between the annual Oryza sativa and two wild
perennial species, Oryza rufipogon and O. longistaminata.9 The project was
terminated in 2001, but the breeding and genetic populations were transferred
to the Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences in southwestern China, where
work has been continued with funding support from The Land Institute. The
focus is now on the more difficult work with the distantly related O.
longistaminata, which, when crossed with rice, produces plants with
underground stems called rhizomes.10 In recent breakthroughs, a small number
of perennial plants with good seed production have been produced.

Corn and soybeans are two species that, more than any other crop, we need to
perennialize. Corn is a top carbohydrate producer, typically grown on more
than 70 million acres annually.4 Until soybean acreage increased, corn caused
the greatest amount of soil erosion in the United States. It will be a
challenge to perennialize this crop, but serious consideration is being given
to doing so by exploring two main paths. 1) We could obtain genes from a few
distant relatives of corn that are in the genus Tripsicum. All are perennial
and at least one is winter hardy. 2.) The other, more likely route would be
to cross with two much closer perennial relatives of corn. Unfortunately,
both species, Zea perennis and Z. diploperennis, are tropical and not winter
hardy. Further research is clearly necessary before we can replace
traditional corn.

Several Australian species of the soybean genus Glycine are perennial; they
are difficult to breed with soybean but are potential targets for direct
domestication, without crossing with soybean. Our exploration of
perennializing soybeans has been very limited. For now, we are working to
make Illinois Bundleflower a satisfying substitute.

To mimic a natural ecosystem will require some degree of crop diversity, and
there is potential for many more perennial grains, including rosinseed,
Eastern Gamagrass, chickpea, millet, flax, and a range of native plants. We
have elected not to wait until perennial grain crops are fully developed to
gain experience with the ecological context in which they will grow. At The
Land Institute we have established long-term ecological plots of close
analogs in which to compare methods of perennial crop management. Our
perennial-grain prototypes, including Kernza™ and bundleflower, allow us to
initiate long-term ecological and production research in these plots. For
other crops we are forced to use analogs, but eventually, true perennial
grain mixtures will replace them. Additionally, ongoing studies of natural
ecosystems, such as tallgrass prairie, provide insight into the functioning
of natural plant communities. The prairie is now, and will always be, a
valued teacher.
Who Will Pay?

We propose that, over an eight-year period, federal funding would sponsor 80
plant breeders and geneticists who would develop perennial grain, legume, and
oilseed crops, and 30 agricultural and ecological scientists who would
develop the necessary agronomic systems. They would work on six to eight
major crop species at diverse locations. Budgeting $400,000 per scientist per
year for salaries and research costs would add less than $50 million
annually. This is less than 10 percent of the amount that the public and
private sectors have been spending on plant breeding research in recent years.

Implementation will depend on endorsement by the secretary of agriculture,
the president, Congress, nonprofit organizations, corporations, and citizens.
The Land Institute will offer free germplasm and more than three decades of
experience with perennials to the project.
Conclusion

Essentially all of nature’s ecosystems feature perennial plants growing in
species mixtures, systems that build soil. Agriculture reversed that process
nearly everywhere by substituting annual monocultures. As a result, ecosystem
services—including soil fertility—have been degraded. Most land available for
new production is of marginal quality that declines quickly. The resulting
biodiversity loss gets deserved attention, soil erosion less.

Perennialization of the 70 percent of cropland now growing grains has the
potential to extend the productive life of our soils from the current tens or
hundreds of years to thousands or tens of thousands. New perennial crops,
like their wild relatives, seem certain to be more resilient to climate
change. Without a doubt, they will increase sequestration of carbon. They
will reduce the land runoff that is creating coastal dead zones and affecting
fisheries and maintain the quality of scarce surface and ground water.
American food security will improve. It won’t be easy to overturn 45 years of
American policy and centuries of turning to annuals. There are entrenched
interests that can slow change—just look at the recent battle over healthcare
in the U.S. Congress—but the social stability and ecological sustainability
resulting from secure perennial food supplies make the fight worthwhile. A
50-Year Farm Bill will buy time to confront the intersecting issues of
climate, population, water, and biodiversity.
Acknowledgments

This paper was written with indispensable assistance from Land Institute
scientists Stan Cox, Lee DeHaan, David Van Tassell, Jerry Glover, and Cindy
Cox. Wendell Berry, Joan Jackson, Fred Kirschenmann, and Ken Warren provided
editorial help. Joe Roman, Jack Fairweather, Tess Croner, James Dewar, Arjun
Heimsath, and B. B. Mishra gave valuable reviews and assistance.
References

1. Cassman, KG & Wood, S. Cultivated Systems. In Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment: Global Ecosystem Assessment Report on Conditions and Trends
741–789 (Island Press, Washington, DC, 2005).
2. Wood, S, Sebastian, K & Scherr, SA. Pilot Analysis of Global
Ecosystems: Agroecosystems (International Food Policy Research Institute and
World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, 2000).
3. Dimitri, C, Effland, A & Conklin, N. The 20th Century Transformation of
U.S. Agriculture and Farm Policy (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic
Information Bulletin 3, 2005).
4. USDA. National Agricultural Statistic Service. (2007).
5. Pollack, S & Perez, A. Fruit and tree nuts situation and outlook
yearbook (pdf). (2007).
www.ers.usda.gov/publications/FTS/2007/Yearbook/FTS2007.pdf
6. Chiras, DD & Reganold, JP. Natural Resource Conservation: Management
7. for a Sustainable Future, 9th ed. (Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River,
NJ, 2004).
8. Randall, GW & Mulla, D. Nitrate nitrogen in surface waters as
influenced by climatic conditions and agricultural practices. Journal of
Environmental Quality 30, 337–44 (2001).
9. Cox, TS, Glover, JD, Van Tassel, DL, Cox, CM & DeGann, LR. Prospects
for developing perennial grain crops. BioScience 56, 649–659 (2006).
10. Sacks, EJ, Roxas, JP & Sta. Cruz, MT. Developing perennial upland rice
I: Field performance of Oryza sativa/O. rufipogon F1, F4 and BC1F4 progeny.
Crop Science 43, 120–128 (2003).
11. Cox, TS et al. Breeding perennial grain crops. Critical Reviews in
Plant Sciences 21, 59–91 (2002).

Questions

1, Does starting this kind of a 50-year plan now make sense?

2. If it such a plan might work, what secondary benefits do you see? For
example, might some of the biomass be helpful for heating?

3. Can you think of any modifications to this plan, that might make it easier
or faster to implement in a low carbon world?

4. Are there drawbacks to such a plan?






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