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internetworkers - Re: Linux, AOL/TimeWarner, and the future of computing

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  • From: "Michael D. Thomas" <mdthomas AT mindspring.com>
  • To: "InterNetWorkers" <internetworkers AT franklin.oit.unc.edu>
  • Subject: Re: Linux, AOL/TimeWarner, and the future of computing
  • Date: Fri, 22 Mar 2002 02:20:22 -0500


> >There's still one other point, though -- MS doesn't bring the wire
in
> >to people's houses.
>
> That is the point. Time-Warner owns the wire and the
> set-top. AOL owns the email. MS owns the desktop. They're both
trying to
> establish a dominant position in the living room. Xbox is a play
for the
> set-top/information appliance. It doesn't matter that the
resolution is
> poor for now. They want to be there when that problem is fixed.

A couple of points:

* HDTV is and will be a luxury item for some time to come. In the mean
time, the growth market requires a low price point.

* "in the living room".... I'm not sure that web browsing and email is
really a living room activity. Web/Email is about typing, reading and
choosing content. TV will certainly become more interactive over time,
but that doesn't necessarily mean that all technology converges to one
device. Look at the wireless space -- there are PDA/cell phone combos
on the market, but many people prefer and will always prefer the form
factor of a tiny phone they can take out when they don't need a PDA
and a PDA that is larger and can do more than a PDA/cell phone combo
can do. There are also the point/time-of-sale issues -- how many
people actually buy their PDA and cell phone at the same time? All of
these forces work against technology convergence in the mobile space,
and I think similar forces will work against TV/Web convergence.

Example: the Xbox/PS2 as internet appliance at the least requires
consumers to rearrange their furniture. Even with a wireless keyboard,
I don't think many people are going to send email or research their
next auto purchase sitting on the couch and looking at a video
interface 5-10 feet away. Even with resolution problems resolved, you
have to put a chair next to the TV. By the time people are rearranging
their living rooms, why not just set up a separate Internet Appliance
(Remember, we have cheap high quality resolution in this example)? It
also *looks* like a computer, which is certainly important from a
marketing standpoint.

(BTW, if you think rearranging the living room is a trivial
undertaking, you're obviously not married.)

If you couldn't tell, I have a grudge against WebTV and web over TV in
general. While traveling once, I tried to use WebTV to handle an
important email. Worst online experience ever, including the time I
accidentally clicked through to a bestiality porn site.






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