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[Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>]

Evelyn Garriss, The Browning Newsletter, predictions on the weather this 
winter.

Prepare for a COLD winter.

Appears that we are going to have weak El Nino conditions this winter - not 
good for the whole US.

A lot of volcanic activity all year in N. Pacific, Russia & AK -- has been 
blocking sunlight, lots of dust/sulfur in the air.

Artic air is really cold.  

In weak El Nino only west US will get some of the warm air - cold air from 
artic will go all the way down to the gulf and to east coast all winter, 
unusually cold air.

West US will be warmer, but dry.

2007 artic ice expanded over the winter. 
2008 artic ice expanded more over the winter.



Worldwide weak monsoon this year.  Really bad in India, 25% below normal and 
Pakistan 40% below normal - food production way off 15-20% below normal - 
trouble in the tribal areas (food shortages) even though Prez says they have 
enough stored to hand out food.  Worst monsoon in 60 years.  They are broke 
and can't even afford seed for next year (assume she's talking about typical 
farmers in those countries.)

US crops got put in late, there was no heat spell to speed up recovery and 
now we are having an early fall, and a colder fall because of the volcanic 
activity.

She is hearing a lot of concern from her farmer (clients to her weather 
forecast newsletter) in corn, the crops are wet, crops are late, and when 
trying to store the crop wet, harvesting is very expensive.  Storing wet corn 
very prone to disease.  Bad conditions for harvest, and bad conditions for 
the winter wheat crop.

(Host:  Longer term weather cycles - the world is hung up on global warming, 
but from what he's been reading, there actually has been a general cooling 
trend since 1998.)

Garriss: "Yes and it has been quite dramatic since 2007.  1998 was as warm as 
it got and it got a little bit cooler but stayed fairly stable, and then it 
plunged rather dramatically since 2007.  Remember all the pictures of polar 
bears and the concerns that the ice caps were going to just melt away and the 
last we'd see of the polar bears as they paddled off into the artic waters 
looking for some ice to climb on?  Well, what's been happening the ice cap 
has been growing back.  And it's interesting when you see how it's being 
reported.  In 2008, we saw a lot of ice growing back.  The ice cap at the end 
of the summer melt was not as small as it had been the year before.  So what 
were the headlines?  They weren't  the ice cap is growing back.  The 
headlines were we have more thin ice than ever before.  That was because it 
was one years' growth.  So there was a lot of new ice, therefore, the 
headlines were worrying because of all of the thin
 ice.  Now it' grown back a second year.  And I think a way to compare it, if 
you looked at the end of the summer melt in 2007 and the end of the summer 
melt  this year the ice was 1.4 times as much territory as Texas.  There was 
that much additional ice added on to the artic ice cap.  

"It is growing back and it's growing back fairly rapidly.  Part of the reason 
is that we're no longer seeing the global warming and then part of it is the 
very short term fact that we've had a lot of volcanic eruptions in the artic 
area and the sunlight isn't getting through that chemical gunk and debris in 
order to melt the ice.  This summer has been really cold and the ice has been 
growing back.  

"Also some people are quite concerned because the sun goes thru 11 year 
cycles of sun spots.  And that is tied in with radiation so the same amount 
of radiation the sun produces peaks about every 11 years and it bottomed out 
around 2007 and they've been waiting for the cycle to start up again and the 
face of the sun has been blank.  We've had the quietest sun and the least 
amount of radiation in almost 100 years."

(Host: You'd never know that by reading what's in the press, that isn't what 
the public is being told.)

Garriss:  "Well there is something that is going on.  You can have the globe 
as a whole cooler and certain areas grow warmer.  Now in the Atlantic the 
flow, most people call it the Gulf Stream, but it is the whole flow of the 
Atlantic where the warm tropical water tends to flow north towards the N. 
Atlantic.  And just like rivers have times where there is rapid flow and when 
there is very little flow.  So these giant currents int he Atlantic have 
times when they flow very rapidly and times when they slow down.  Well since 
1995, the Atlantic has been flowing very rapidly, and the Atlantic waters 
have been getting warmer and warmer.  Also cities create so much heat they 
create their own little heat islands.  So where do most of the policy makers 
live?  They are living along the east coast or in Europe in cities.  So the 
rest of the globe can grow cold and they just happen to be living where it is 
actually getting warmer."



So the bottom line for THIS winter in North America, is expect a cold one, 
caused by lack of sunspots, and and increase in volcanic activity that 
started last year that has caused debris in the air blocking the sun, making 
the artic air really cold this year.


FYI in the deep south desert here the last 2 mornings it was a measy 24 
degrees.... something I wasn't expecting until late December or January.  



>From don.bowen AT earthlink.net  Fri Oct 30 19:12:40 2009
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> Appears that we are going to have weak El Nino conditions this winter -
> not good for the whole US.

You can toss that one away.  The El Nino condition has already moved to
Moderate from weak.  It is considered moderate when sea surface temperatures
are one degree C above normal.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum63

Don Bowen  KI6DIU
New ruralize pages, follow the link off http://www.ruralize.com
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html