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["Lynda" <lurine AT com-pair.net>]

Well, I don't know about her predictions or what she bases them on but I do 
know how our weather patterns up here work.  The last time we had the 
basically same El Nino weather pattern was 2006 and we had a soggy winter. 
So, soggy that the 120' Doug fir on our driveway fell over.  It's root 
system, quite deep, was able to hold it up because it was water logged.

The two years following were El Nina and we had dry winters.  So, I'm no 
expert, but I'm expecting rain and have so prepared.

Oh, and I might add, I'm not expecting too much cold either.  Well, 
relatively speaking, cause we do get COLD up here but not like we did the 
last two years.  By now, if we were going to have a cold, dry winter, we'd 
be burning wood all day.  We would have had a killer frost in mid-September. 
We didn't.  We've had a couple of frost which were enough to make tomatoes 
look ratty but not a frost down below 20 degrees.

Our dogs, the neighbor's horses, the other neighbor's goats all have only 
moderate coats on them.  We shall see.  Personally, I trust the animals more 
than humans <g>

Lynda
--"I'm fascinated by the hard line you're drawing over religion -- It gets
used too much, as an excuse, a fall guy, a weapon, a con.  A lot of people,
maybe most, don't mean it except when it suits them."  Dallas
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Leslie" <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>

Evelyn Garriss, The Browning Newsletter, predictions on the weather this 
winter.

Prepare for a COLD winter.

Appears that we are going to have weak El Nino conditions this winter - not 
good for the whole US.

A lot of volcanic activity all year in N. Pacific, Russia & AK -- has been 
blocking sunlight, lots of dust/sulfur in the air.

Artic air is really cold.

In weak El Nino only west US will get some of the warm air - cold air from 
artic will go all the way down to the gulf and to east coast all winter, 
unusually cold air.

West US will be warmer, but dry.

2007 artic ice expanded over the winter.
2008 artic ice expanded more over the winter.



Worldwide weak monsoon this year. Really bad in India, 25% below normal and 
Pakistan 40% below normal - food production way off 15-20% below normal - 
trouble in the tribal areas (food shortages) even though Prez says they have 
enough stored to hand out food. Worst monsoon in 60 years. They are broke 
and can't even afford seed for next year (assume she's talking about typical 
farmers in those countries.)

US crops got put in late, there was no heat spell to speed up recovery and 
now we are having an early fall, and a colder fall because of the volcanic 
activity.

She is hearing a lot of concern from her farmer (clients to her weather 
forecast newsletter) in corn, the crops are wet, crops are late, and when 
trying to store the crop wet, harvesting is very expensive. Storing wet corn 
very prone to disease. Bad conditions for harvest, and bad conditions for 
the winter wheat crop.

(Host: Longer term weather cycles - the world is hung up on global warming, 
but from what he's been reading, there actually has been a general cooling 
trend since 1998.)

Garriss: "Yes and it has been quite dramatic since 2007. 1998 was as warm as 
it got and it got a little bit cooler but stayed fairly stable, and then it 
plunged rather dramatically since 2007. Remember all the pictures of polar 
bears and the concerns that the ice caps were going to just melt away and 
the last we'd see of the polar bears as they paddled off into the artic 
waters looking for some ice to climb on? Well, what's been happening the ice 
cap has been growing back. And it's interesting when you see how it's being 
reported. In 2008, we saw a lot of ice growing back. The ice cap at the end 
of the summer melt was not as small as it had been the year before. So what 
were the headlines? They weren't the ice cap is growing back. The headlines 
were we have more thin ice than ever before. That was because it was one 
years' growth. So there was a lot of new ice, therefore, the headlines were 
worrying because of all of the thin
ice. Now it' grown back a second year. And I think a way to compare it, if 
you looked at the end of the summer melt in 2007 and the end of the summer 
melt this year the ice was 1.4 times as much territory as Texas. There was 
that much additional ice added on to the artic ice cap.

"It is growing back and it's growing back fairly rapidly. Part of the reason 
is that we're no longer seeing the global warming and then part of it is the 
very short term fact that we've had a lot of volcanic eruptions in the artic 
area and the sunlight isn't getting through that chemical gunk and debris in 
order to melt the ice. This summer has been really cold and the ice has been 
growing back.

"Also some people are quite concerned because the sun goes thru 11 year 
cycles of sun spots. And that is tied in with radiation so the same amount 
of radiation the sun produces peaks about every 11 years and it bottomed out 
around 2007 and they've been waiting for the cycle to start up again and the 
face of the sun has been blank. We've had the quietest sun and the least 
amount of radiation in almost 100 years."

(Host: You'd never know that by reading what's in the press, that isn't what 
the public is being told.)

Garriss: "Well there is something that is going on. You can have the globe 
as a whole cooler and certain areas grow warmer. Now in the Atlantic the 
flow, most people call it the Gulf Stream, but it is the whole flow of the 
Atlantic where the warm tropical water tends to flow north towards the N. 
Atlantic. And just like rivers have times where there is rapid flow and when 
there is very little flow. So these giant currents int he Atlantic have 
times when they flow very rapidly and times when they slow down. Well since 
1995, the Atlantic has been flowing very rapidly, and the Atlantic waters 
have been getting warmer and warmer. Also cities create so much heat they 
create their own little heat islands. So where do most of the policy makers 
live? They are living along the east coast or in Europe in cities. So the 
rest of the globe can grow cold and they just happen to be living where it 
is actually getting warmer."



So the bottom line for THIS winter in North America, is expect a cold one, 
caused by lack of sunspots, and and increase in volcanic activity that 
started last year that has caused debris in the air blocking the sun, making 
the artic air really cold this year.


FYI in the deep south desert here the last 2 mornings it was a measy 24 
degrees.... something I wasn't expecting until late December or January.



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