Homestead mailing list

[Viking <erthnsky AT bellsouth.net>]

Lisa K.V. Perry wrote:

> If you guys are interested, I propose we take an informal survey of 
> our list members (lurkers included) regarding the housing bubble in 
> your neck of the woods.  It might be interesting, what do you say?

I live in Gordon County, Georgia, which is in the NW part of the state.
 This area is often marketed as being halfway between Atlanta and
Chattanooga, but we are  twice as far from Atlanta.  Still, people move
here for the relatively cheap land compared to other 'suburban' areas in
both cities.  Our county is divided by I-75, and almost all development
is on the other side of the interstate from me.  I rarely go over there,
and when I do, I'm just passing through.  A few years ago, you could see
a lot of older farms being prepared to become subdivisions and had that
growth continued, I don't think there would be any 'country' left over
there, but just last week when we went to pickup that Freecycle grill, I
was actually rather surprised that nothing had changed since the last
time I was over there, about a year ago.  I don't follow the markets
anymore as I have found my resting place, but my folks are still looking
to escape the city, and I recently did some real estate searches for a
list member.  I would say that there aren't as many places for sale as
there once were a couple of years ago.  I think those that are building
are either wealthier individuals or are moving closer to the cities to
save on gas.  I just don't see that many new subdivisions going in here.
 Land prices in my county have tripled since we bought in 1998, but have
since leveled off and maybe have actually dropped a little.  I paid
about 3K per acre, and while asking prices still reflect closer to 9K an
acre for larger tracts(20+), land can be had for about 6K/acre or less.
This side of the county is just undeveloped and will not see the growth
that the other side sees, mainly due to geography.  For example, to
bring city water or cable out here, one has to cross a large river as
well as the National Forest and two busy RR tracks-expensive for
developers.  The other side of the county doesn't have these problems
and the land is mainly a large floodplain/valley, instead of the finger
and ridge terrain of western Gordon.  Even the well diggers don't like
to dig out here... :)  My rich neighbor is building a house on her 40
acres down the road, and her builder is having a helluva time keeping
crews simply because we are so far out of town that the Mexicans can't
get rides.(in this area, almost 100% of construction workers are Mexican
and most live in town and rely on Latino taxis or bicycles)  Gordon
county had a population of 28-30 thousand a few years ago, but today
officials estimate that there may be as many as 20 thousand Mexicans(40%
of the total pop) in the area, so I have seen some population estimates
at 50 thousand for our county.  I don't think it's that much, probably
35 or 40 thousand total is about right, but at least half the population
lives on the I-75 corrider in town.  I don't see any growth beyond 5
miles from the interstate in either direction.
Population is growing, there is no doubt about that, but in this area,
the growth is due more to immigrant influx than to suburban retreat.
The housing market suffers because many immigrants share rented housing
instead of buying new like the escape artists would likely do.
I think new houses are still selling, but at a slower pace than they
once were.  Older houses on the market are taking longer to sell and
prices have been reduced.  I don't necessarily feel that this is due to
any housing 'bubble' however it's because we are kind of unique and
things just take longer here.  Most people want to live 10 minutes from
everything, so any growth is just likely to be closer in.

Bev
--
erthnsky AT bellsouth.net  BevanRon of EarthNSky Farm      NW Georgia USDA Zone 7
34.498N 85.076W