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  • From: "Robert Waldrop" <bwaldrop@cox.net>
  • To: "permaculture" <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [permaculture] Pre-design for collapse
  • Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2008 08:29:57 -0500

I used a simple format. We did introductions all around, and then I made about a 30 minute presentation explaining why this was important, and then we spent the rest of the day looking at the issues/challenges/resources for each of the categories I had identified. I don't think attachments are allowed here, so I will copy my outline below. I am not sure how the formatting will come through, its organized as bullets in my original.

As items were identified, I wrote them on a large pad of paper, and then those were placed on the wall around the room, so at breaks and during lunch people could wander around and at the end of the day we were "surrounded" by the work. When I get those transcribed, they will be available too. The notes I wrote below were my thoughts before the workshop started. My opening presentation goes up to the section on "Water".

So for "Water" for example, there is a page listing all the potential urban sources of water, and a page about purification and one about rainwater harvesting (improvised structures to catch rainwater).

I also invited people to bring "show and tell", and at various times during the day we did that. e.g., one person brought two solar ovens, some brought books, another told us about the "slow sand filter at the bottom of a swale, that fed a below-ground cistern", which was the water system on the farm he grew up on.

We decided to start a listserv for those who came, to continue the conversation and make writing/editing the drafts easier. We haven't set the next session's date yet, probably it will be in late October.

The Community, Mitigation, and Mutual Aid sections will be the topics of the next session, as time was running out and we literally just breezed over those. I also think we were somewhat psychologically numbed by thinking in such detail about the task.

For example, to feed everyone in the OKC metro area an emergency ration of 2 lbs of flour/day and 2 lbs of dried soybeans/week, means that every day 2.9 million lbs of food has to enter the city from the surrounding countryside. This requires 58 semi trucks hauling 50K lbs/day, or 6 trains per month -- or 11,680 bicycle carts hauling 250 lbs each. If the bicycles and carts can have a 3 day turn-around, we would need to build 35,000 carts, and would need a total of 70,000 bicycles (35K as the "tractors", and 35K to give up 2 wheels for the cart). The journeys of these carts would range from 20 miles to 80 miles round trip, as Oklahoma City is ringed by large grain storage silos. We also talked about the possibilities of "rail bike trains", which would be bicycles worked together so they could run on railroads, pulling larger loads, as all of these grain silos are on railroad tracks. We decided if we were stuck with the bicycle cart scenario (e.g. no fuel for trains or trucks), that would be our best option.

While this sounds overwhelming, when looked at on the "village scale", it is much less so. The OKC metro area has 345 recognized neighborhoods, and each neighborhood would only need 102 bicycle cart units, on average, to haul food for its average population of 3,000 or so. In our discussions, we see an organized devolution from the present regional-government to urban villages based on these pre-existing associational structures.

Bob Waldrop
www.barkingfrogspermaculture.org


SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM

Perfect Storm

Economic irrationality

Peak Energy

Climate instability



How could this happen?

Large weather disasters

Economic meltdown

Terrorist attacks

EMP

Climate disaster (long-term changes as opposed to discrete weather disaster events like a particular hurricane or tornado)

Resource exhaustion (peak oil, peak energy in general)



Our purpose is to decide what it would take for an urban area like the OKC Metropolitan Statistical Area, with 1.1 million people in it, to survive a sudden collapse of our food and energy systems.

Worst case scenario (except for nuke explosion)



No fossil fuels or other internal combustion available,

No electricity, not from the grid, not from small generators, not from batteries,

total electronic telecommunication failure - no radio, no TV, no cable, no internet, no "any communications/media that require electricity"

Complete collapse of the just-in-time inventory system,

Closure of the banking system, no credit cards, checks can't clear, funds can't be withdrawn.

Disappearance of the internet.

Getting there the firstest with the mostest is critical to a positive response. Government likely to be in disarray, big danger is toxic/authoritarian/scapegoating responses will emerge..

Some people will relocate (to family or friends in rural areas). This should be encouraged.

Likely to be refugees also headed our way.

WATER



In the absence of grid-distributed power, OKC Water estimates they could supply 50% of the average daily domestic water consumption with small gasoline and diesel pumps. Unanswered question: how much fuel would be on hand for these devices? What about water purification? Sewer system?.

Rainwater harvesting

Shallow wells

Slow-sand filters

Purification issues



FOOD

Without regular supply, the area would be out of food very quickly. (Note the experience of hurricane areas where people run out of food apparently almost immediately.)

Go over food scenarios.

Basic ration of 2 lbs flour/day and 2 lbs dry soybeans per week, for 1.1 million people, must be hauled from grain elevators within 60 mile or so radius.

biodiesel from cotton seed for diesel fuel for hauling food? (Cotton Seed Producers Oil Mill is close to downtown OKC.)

Alcohol fuel for transportation?

Bicycle carts capable of hauling 250 lbs each?

Urban gardening



Containers/gardens on pavement such as sidewalks and streets.

Seed sources include:

Seeds from vegetables in stores, like pumpkins, winter squash.

Dried peas and beans.

Potatoes, sweet potatoes

Existing seed stocks



Bring animals from rural areas into the city with cattle/hog drives.

Import lots of chickens from the rural areas.

Every yard a garden.

Plant public spaces like parks and street medians.

Container growing on sidewalks and streets

Community kitchens and baking ovens

Raising fish in barrels

Compost humanure

Collect urine for fertilizer.

Aquaponics in solar sun porches

Cold frames and other season extending devices.

Other meat animals

Goats

Fish culture

Guinea pigs

Rabbits


Why would farmers want to supply grain and beans to city populations?

Avoid wholesale evacuation of cities into the countryside.

Trade/barter

Help in time of need

SHELTER

Combine households? The extended family, by birth or adoption or convenience or necessity, will make a big come-back.

More hands will be needed for everything, plus building materials.

On average, maybe 3 households link together as one.

Each house needs:

Water harvesting structures.

Passive solar.

Solar hot water.

Greenhouse/season extending devices.

ENERGY

Big risk of deforestation, because wood is the easiest non-fossil-fuel fuel..

Home methane generation from human waste for cooking gas.

Alcohol fuel for transportation, maybe some biodiesel.

Biodiesel is iffy because oils will be in great shortage and in demand for cooking, access depends on where Cottonseed oil coop is in its annual production cycle when the crash occurs.

Passive solar for winter heat.

Extra insulation.

If three households become one, scavenge materials from two houses to retrofit one.

Solar cooking

Expedient but efficient wood stoves (e.g. the rocket stove)



HUMAN WASTE AND TRASH DISPOSAL

There is none in this scenario. Everything will have a use or be re-used/recycled on site or in neighborhoods, or sold through informal markets.

MEDICAL CARE AND PUBLIC HEALTH

Authorities will raise a big stink about composting humanure.

Many medically fragile people will die quickly.

Hospitals and nursing homes would have to be evacuated if/when their generators fail.

New medical practices located in neighborhoods, nurses/midwives empowered..

Epidemic of post-traumatic stress disorder?

Epidemic disease (water born diseases in particular will be a big problem).

Addiction recovery issues?

COMMUNITY

Governance

Neighborhood councils.

Elected by all residents.

Security

Neighborhood patrols.


Civil Society

MITIGATION STRATEGIES

Community organization

Pre-planned strategies for collapse situations.

Household preparations

Super-insulation

Insulated window shutters

Slow sand filters

Food storage

Edible landscaping

Grain grinder

Wood stoves

Solar hot water

Passive solar

Tools for production (alcohol stills, for example)


MUTUAL AID

Info banks for research

Pre-printed and pre-positioned literature in neighborhoods describing strategies/tactics/info/tools to meet the new situation.

Get there the firstest with the mostest.

No one needs the permission of the government to acquire food or supply other necessities..




----- Original Message ----- From: "Rafael Schouten" <talktoraf@hotmail.com>
To: <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 10:50 PM
Subject: Re: [permaculture] Pre-design for collapse


Hi Robert,

the collapse workshop is a great idea, inspired me to organise one in
melbourne in the next few weeks. Any ideas for form, content etc? what worked?
cheers

Rafael Schouten


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