permaculture

[Lawrence London <lfljvenaura@gmail.com>]

http://www.consciouscapitalism.typepad.com/conscious-capitalism/2009/10/summary-of-thinking-in-systems-by-donella-meadows.html
10/25/2009
Summary of "Thinking in Systems" by Donella Meadows


The *Thinking in Systems* book introduces a reader to a different way of
thinking about everyday problems that are found in nature, business,
society and life.  The book begins its narrative by introducing a concept
of simple systems, as illustrated by a thermostat which controls the
temperature in a room. This illustration introduced the notion of control
and feedback loops. The simple system shows the effectiveness of the
system, while illustrating how system failure can occur if the strength of
control loops does not match the power of feedback or other loops that
influence the behavior of the overall system.  The basic premise that is
described is the notion that any force applied to the system has
consequences. A well designed system can absorb these forces and still
maintain system functionality. A poorly designed system cannot absorb
external forces, causing the system to collapse.

The book further goes on to describe the concept of “System Zoo”. The take
away from this chapter is that systems and models that are built to predict
them cannot be treated in isolation, much like animals in real life do not
exists in neat, isolated, environments, and systems operate among other
systems. The danger of creating system that is too simplistic, and
therefore not representative of real lie, or making systems too large, and
therefore too complicated to be useful is described. The chapter introduces
the notion of system oscillations and overshoots as examples of system
instability. These instabilities are problematic for stability of the
systems, since they represent feedbacks that cause the system to not work
well. The cause of oscillations is described as being caused by systems
that do not have appropriate feedback loops, or lack of information.  Lastly,
the “Systems Zoo” describes the problem of system where nonrenewable
resource is the input feed into the system. The author describes the affect
of such system on the amount of production over time. The take away is that
such system will inevitably run out or resources even if new resources are
discovered as a result of higher investment in the means of production
because the added profit from new discoveries cannot match the increased
cost of production (e.g. extraction of oil from hard to reach places, etc.)

The book goes on to describe the characteristics of systems that work well.

1.   Resilience – ability for a system to adjust. The opposite of
resilience – fragility, causes the system to be unresponsive to change, and
exposes the system to potential of collapse. The argument the book makes is
that many modern “innovation” such as monoculture crops and “just in time
inventory” make the system vulnerable, to disease or supply chain
interruption, respectfully.



2.   Self Organization – ability of system to adjust to new demands and
circumstances. Ability of the system to orient itself and build complex
structures from simple building blocks (snow flake from simple pattern, DNA
& RNA as building blocks of life) is viewed as key characteristic.



3. Hierarchy – describe how complex system can be broken into smaller,
simpler organization that can function autonomously. The opposite of
hierarchy is a one complex organism that cannot be productive of parts of
it is not performing at the level required for the smooth operation of the
system.



While well behaved systems exhibit the characteristics above, system also
surprise the observer. The book outlines some of the reason why the models
for complex, real life system, sometimes don’t behave in intended ways.  The
following concepts cause systems to “misbehave”:



1.  Beguiling Events - focusing too much on events, rather than system
flows. This trap causes overreaction, and complacencies resulting in system
oscillations and system failure. Focusing on events causes the observer to
lose ability to predict the future. A classic example of focusing in GNP as
a measure of nation’s wealth rather than the overall capital – physical
plants, people, knowledge, is described.



2.   Liner Minds in a Nonlinear World - Many theorist envision a world
where thing occur in liner fashion, Cause and effect, etc. However the
world is too often non-linear. Small incremental changes, over time, can
cause huge swings in the affected system. Sometime a notion that if a
little of something is good, more of the same is much better.



3. Nonexistent Boundaries – making models with boundaries, for sake of
simplicity, that do not reflect real life.



4.  Layers of Limits – notion that any individual layer might be limited by
some other layer in the model.



5.  Ubiquitous Delays – The notion that things “it takes what it takes”.
System delays are inherent in the physical and social systems. A great
example of this is described by Vaclav Havel whose description of why
democracy can’t be imposed is illustrative of this concept.



6. Bounded Rationality – describes the fact that if a system is limited,
people do thing in a rational self interest. These actions, while
understandable at the low level, cause overall system failure. There are
many examples of this in recent times (mortgage crisis, environmental
damage, etc). This concept flies in the face of the notions of Adam Smith’s
that invisible hand will guide the world to a better place.

In the most profound and significant section of the book, the author
describes the various system traps and opportunities how to fix them.

1.  Policy Resistance – THE inherent resistance of the establishment to
allow changes to affect the system. People would rather live with a flawed
system that is familiar then to allow changes that might cause uncertainty
and instability. Such resistance can cause inevitable collapse to be more
dramatic, sometime even catastrophic.



2.   The tragedy of commons – This is a classic economic theory, described
in terms of system thinking. The common, defined as community space – such
as a town common, is a shared resource. This resource can be governed by
community standards, privatization or effective regulation. Each approach
has tradeoffs and benefits. It’s the conclusion of the author that only
regulation is affective since the community standards are usually not
enough and privatization causes the property owner act in self interest and
disregard the abutter’s welfare.



3.   Drift to low performance – the notion that prolonged failures causes
acceptance of the new state of things, “New normal” – has become a popular
term in recent times.



4.   Success to Successful – notion that success will give advantage to
those that have already succeeded, thus limiting the “losers” ability to
win in the future. “The rich get richer!”



5.   Shifting the burden – notion that risk is shifted to someone else,
while success is reaped by the actor.



6.   Rule beating – the notion that rules, or laws, are ignored, broken or
skirted. The cause of rule breaking is usually related to the fact that
these rules are perceived as unjust or not flexible or response enough to
real life issues. Also, following the letter of the law and not it spirit
is described.




7.   Seeking wrong goal – sometime goals change. Many systems suffer from
the fact that original goal don’t make any sense in the current context, or
never did. Pursuit of wrong goals will cause the system pursue these goals,
capturing wrong or insignificant metrics, leaving the illusion of progress,
while heading toward system collapse.

The book concludes with an approach of how to solve system problems.  The
identification of leverage point in the system describes how to affect
system behavior in most effective way.  The list of leverage point includes
quantitive things such as numbers , creating of buffers in the system, as
well as introduction of new feedback loops and general system flexibility.
As one of the most affective leverage point, the book describes free flow
of information and general transparency in the system. The most effective
leverage point is defined as ability to transcend current thinking –
thinking outside the box, because this, more than anything else, can allow
change to the systems to best reflect new goals and realities.

The book concludes with a series of recommendation for how people can
improve systems.

- Boris Tabenkin