permaculture

[Lawrence London <lfljvenaura@gmail.com>]

A stunning year in climate science reveals that human civilization is on the
precipice « Climate Progress - Sent using Google Toolbar
http://climateprogress.org/2010/11/15/year-in-climate-science-climategate/
A stunning year in climate science reveals that human civilization is on the
precipice<http://climateprogress.org/2010/11/15/year-in-climate-science-climategate/>
The
first anniversary of 'Climategate', Part 1: The media blows the story of the
century November 15, 2010

This week marks the one-year anniversary of what the anti-science crowd
successfully labeled ‘Climategate’.  The media will be doing countless
retrospectives, most of which will be wasted ink, like the
*Guardian*’s<http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/nov/14/climate-change-science-email-scandal>piece
— focusing on climate scientists at the expense of climate science,
which is precisely the kind of miscoverage that has been going on for the
whole year!

I’ll save that my media critiques for Part 2, since I think that
Climategate’s biggest impact was probably on the media, continuing their
downward trend of focusing on style over substance, of missing the story of
the century, if not the millennia.

*The last year or so has seen more scientific papers and presentations that
raise the genuine prospect of catastrophe (if we stay on our current
emissions path) that I can recall seeing in any other year.*

Perhaps the media would have ignored that science anyway, but Climategate
appears to be a key reason “less than 10 percent of the news
article<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/14/AR2010111404444.html>s
written about last year’s climate summit in Copenhagen dealt primarily with
the science of climate change, a study showed on Monday.”

But for those interested in the real climate science story of the past year,
let’s review a couple dozen studies of the most important findings.  Any one
of these would be cause for action — and combined they vindicate the final
sentence of Elizabeth Kolbert’s  *Field Notes from a Catastrophe*:  “It may
seem impossible to imagine that a technologically advanced society could
choose, in essence, to destroy itself, but that is what we are now in the
process of doing.”

*1. **Nature: “Global warming blamed for 40% decline in the ocean’s
phytoplankton”<http://climateprogress.org/2010/07/29/nature-decline-ocean-phytoplankton-global-warming-boris-worm/>:
“Microscopic life crucial to the marine food chain is dying out. The
consequences could be catastrophic.”*

If confirmed, it may represent the single most important finding of the year
in climate science.  Seth Borenstein of the AP
explains<http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100728/ap_on_sc/us_sci_declining_plankton>,
“plant plankton found in the world’s oceans  are crucial to much of life on
Earth. They are the foundation of the bountiful marine food web, *produce
half the world’s oxygen and suck up harmful carbon dioxide.” *Boris Worm, a
marine biologist and co-author of the study said, “We found that temperature
had the best power to explain the changes.”  He noted, “If this holds up,
something really serious is underway and has been underway for decades. I’ve
been trying to think of a biological change that’s bigger than this and I
can’t think of one.”

2.  *Science: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing
and 
venting<http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/04/science-nsf-tundra-permafrost-methane-east-siberian-arctic-shelf-venting/>:
NSF issues world a wake-up call: “Release of even a fraction of the methane
stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.”*

Methane release from the not-so-perma-frost is the most dangerous amplifying
feedback in the entire carbon cycle. This research finds a key “lid” on “the
large sub-sea permafrost carbon reservoir” near Eastern Siberia “*is
clearly perforated,
and sedimentary CH4 [methane] is escaping to the atmosphere*.”

The permafrost permamelt contains a staggering “*1.5 trillion tons* of
frozen carbon, about twice as much carbon as contained in the
atmosphere<http://climateprogress.org/2009/08/17/positive-methane-feedbacks-permafrost-tundra-methane-hydrates/>,”
much of which would be released as methane.  Methane is  is 25 times as
potent a heat-trapping gas as CO2 over a 100 year time horizon, but 72 times
as potent over 20 years<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential>
!

The carbon is locked in a freezer in the part of the planet warming up the
fastest (see “Tundra 4: Permafrost loss linked to Arctic sea ice
loss<http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/12/breaking-news-tundra-4-permafrost-loss-linked-to-arctic-sea-ice-loss/>“).
Half the land-based permafrost would vanish by mid-century on our current
emissions path (see “Tundra, Part 2: The point of no
return<http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/23/tundra-part-2-the-point-of-no-return/>”
and below).  *No climate model currently incorporates the amplifying
feedback from methane released by a defrosting tundra.*

The NSF is normally a very staid organization.  If they are worried,
everybody should be.

*It is increasingly clear that if the world strays significantly above 450
ppm atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide for any length of time, we
will find it unimaginably difficult to stop short of 800 to 1000 ppm.*

3.  *Must-read NCAR analysis warns we risk multiple, devastating global
droughts even on moderate emissions
path<http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/20/ncar-daidrought-under-global-warming-a-review/>
.*

Dust-Bowlification may be the impact of human-caused climate change that
hits the most people by mid-century, as the figure below suggests (“a
reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought”):

[image: drought map 3
2060-2069]<http://www2.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/news/2010/2060-2069wOceanLabels.jpg>

*The PDSI in the Great Plains during the Dust Bowl apparently spiked very
briefly to -6, but otherwise rarely exceeded -3 for the decade* (see
here<http://www.atmos.umd.edu/%7Ealfredo/bguan_final.pdf>).
The National Center for Atmospheric Research notes “By the end of the
century, many populated areas, including parts of the United States, could
face readings in the range of -8 to -10, and much of the Mediterranean could
fall to -15 to -20. Such readings would be almost unprecedented.”

4.   *Nature Geoscience study: Oceans are acidifying 10 times faster today
than 55 million years ago when a mass extinction of marine species
occurred<http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/18/ocean-acidification-study-mass-extinction-of-marine-life-nature-geoscience/>
* and *“Geological Society: Acidifying oceans spell marine biological
meltdown “by end of
century”<http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/31/geological-society-acid-ocean-marine-lif/>
* — Co-author: “Unless we curb carbon emissions we risk mass extinctions,
degrading coastal waters and encouraging outbreaks of toxic jellyfish and
algae.”

Marine life and all who depend on it, including humans are at grave risk
from unrestricted emissions of greenhouse gases.  This can’t be stopped with
geo-engineering and there is no plausible strategy for undoing it.

Ocean acidification may well be the most under-reported of all the
catastrophic climate impacts we are risking.

5.  *Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6
feet by 
2100<http://climateprogress.org/2009/12/09/sea-level-rise-six-feet-three-times-faster-than-the-ipcc-estimat/>
* [see figure] and these related findings and studies:

   - Satellite data stunner: “Our data suggest that EAST Antarctica is
   losing mass…. Antarctica may soon be contributing significantly more to
   global sea-level
rise.”<http://climateprogress.org/2009/11/23/satellite-data-grace-east-antarctica-ice-sheet-losing-mass/>
   - *Nature*: “Dynamic thinning of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet ocean
   margins is more sensitive, pervasive, enduring and important than 
previously
   
realized.”<http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/26/nature-dynamic-thinning-of-greenland-and-antarctic-ice-sheets-glacier/>
   - New study of Greenland under “more realistic forcings” concludes
   “collapse of the ice-sheet was found to occur between 400 and 560 ppm” of
   
CO2<http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/23/greenland-ice-sheet-collapse-global-warming-science/>
   - Climate researcher: “It is my assessment that we have had the strongest
   melting since they started measuring the temperature in Greenland
in 
1873.”<http://climateprogress.org/2010/10/24/greenland-melting-noaa-2010-arctic-report-card/>
   - Science: CO2 levels haven’t been this high for 15 million years, when
   it was 5° to 10°F warmer and seas were 75 to 120 feet higher — “We have
   shown that this dramatic rise in sea level is associated with an increase 
in
   CO2 levels of about 100
ppm.”<http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/18/science-co2-levels-havent-been-this-high-for-15-million-years-when-it-was-5%c2%b0-to-10%c2%b0f-warmer-and-seas-were-75-to-120-feet-higher-we-have-shown-that-this-dramatic-rise-in-sea-level-i/>
   
<http://climateprogress.org/2009/06/14/sea-level-rise-greenland-ice-sheet-melting/>

[image: SLR PNAS
pic]<http://climateprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/SLR-PNAS-pic.gif>

For more on SLR, see Coastal studies experts: “For coastal management
purposes, a [sea level] rise of 7 feet (2 meters) should be utilized for
planning major 
infrastructure”<http://climateprogress.org/2010/11/14/sea-level-rise-planning-coastal-infrastructure/>

6.  *Royal Society: “There are very strong indications that the current rate
of species extinctions far exceeds anything in the fossil
record.”<http://climateprogress.org/2010/11/09/royal-society-rate-of-species-extinctions-far-exceeds-anything-in-the-fossil-recordo/>
*

This is from a special issue of 16 articles in the *Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society B* (Biological Science), “Biological
diversity in a changing
world,<http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1558.toc>”–
which notes “Never before has a single species driven such profound changes
to the habitats, composition and climate of the planet.”

7.  *Science*: *Drought drives decade-long decline in plant
growth*<http://climateprogress.org/2010/08/19/climate-science-nasa-drought-drives-decade-long-decline-in-plant-growth/>

The NASA news release explains the importance of the work by researchers
Maosheng Zhao and Steven Running,:

*“These results are extraordinarily significant because they show that the
global net effect of climatic warming on the productivity of terrestrial
vegetation need not be positive — as was documented for the 1980’s and
1990’s,”* said Diane Wickland, of NASA Headquarters and manager of NASA’s
Terrestrial Ecology research program….

*“This is a pretty serious warning that warmer temperatures are not going to
endlessly improve plant growth,”* Running said….

*“The potential that future warming would cause additional declines does not
bode well for the ability of the biosphere to support multiple societal
demands for agricultural production, fiber needs, and increasingly, biofuel
production,”* Zhao said.

Precisely.

*UPDATE:  A commenter notes that questions about the statistics used in this
paper have been raised
here<http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/08/climate-alarmism-at-science-magazine.html>.
**It does look to me like the authors should have put in more of a
disclaimer about statistical uncertainty.  I viewed (and still view) the
original results as credible because they’re consistent with the findings of
the Global Carbon Project — see slide 26
here<http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/08/files/GCP2009_CarbonBudget2008.pdf>,
which is based on this 2009 Nature Geoscience
article<http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html>.
See also “**Nature on stunning new climate feedback: Beetle tree kill
releases more carbon than
fires<http://climateprogress.org/2008/04/25/nature-on-stunning-new-climate-feedback-beetle-tree-kill-releases-more-carbon-than-fires/>
.”* * The bottom line is that this study joins others in raising the serious
warning that, contrary to the popular view, a world of ever increasing
carbon dioxide may not lead to increased vegetation and may in fact lead to
a decreased land sink.* *That would be particularly true if the NCAR drought
* projection comes true.

8.  *Nature review of 20 years of field studies finds soils emitting more
CO2 as planet 
warms<http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/25/nature-soils-carbon-dioxided-feedback-global-warming/>
*

A biogeochemist quoted by *Nature* explained that “perhaps [the] most likely
explanation is that increasing temperatures have increased rates of
decomposition of soil organic matter, which has increased the flow of CO2.
If true, this is an important finding: that *a positive feedback to climate
change is already occurring at a detectable level in soils*.”

Another major study in the February 2010 issue of the journal *Ecology* by
Finnish researchers, “Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon fractions in
boreal forest soil <http://www.esajournals.org/doi/full/10.1890/09-0478.1>,”
had a similar conclusion.  The Finnish Environment Institute, which led the
study, explained the results in a release, “Soil contributes to climate
warming more than
expected”<http://www.ymparisto.fi/default.asp?contentid=351875&lan=en>

9.   *Global Warming: Future Temperatures Could Exceed Livable Limits,
Researchers 
Find<http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100504155413.htm>
.*

There were so many important climate science findings this year I didn’t get
to write on all of them.  This one in particular was misunderstood:

Reasonable worst-case scenarios for global warming could lead to deadly
temperatures for humans in coming centuries, according to research findings
from Purdue University and the University of New South Wales, Australia.

The study notes that even a 12°F warming would be dangerous for many.  In
fact, we could well see these deadly temperatures in the next century or
century and a half over large parts of the globe on a very plausible
emissions path.

10.  *UK Met Office: Catastrophic climate change, 13-18°F over most of U.S.
and 27°F in the Arctic, could happen in 50 years, but “we do have time to
stop it if we cut greenhouse gas emissions
soon.”<http://climateprogress.org/2009/09/28/uk-met-office-catastrophic-climate-change-could-happen-with-50-years/>
*

Right before Climategate broke, scientists were increasingly starting to
realize that humanity might well ignore the increasingly strong evidence
that we needed to take action.  They even held a conference on “4°C and
beyond <http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/programme.php>” just weeks before
the scandal broke.  Some of the top climate modelers in the world finally
did a “plausible worst case scenario,” as Dr Richard Betts, Head of Climate
Impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre, put it in a terrific and terrifying
talk (audio here <http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/audio/1-2betts.mp3>, PPT
here <http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/programme.php>).

This is the “plausible worst case scenario” for 2060 from the UK Met Office
that occurs in 10% of model runs of high emissions *with* the carbon cycle
feedbacks [temperature in degrees Celsius, multiple by 1.8 for Fahrenheit]:

[image: Graphic of chnage in temperature]

As the Met Office notes
here<http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/four-degrees.html>,
“In some areas warming could be significantly higher (10 degrees [C = 15F]
or more)”:


   - The Arctic could warm by up to 15.2 °C [27.4 °F] for a high-emissions
   scenario, enhanced by melting of snow and ice causing more of the Sun’s
   radiation to be absorbed.
   - For Africa, the western and southern regions are expected to experience
   both large warming (up to 10 °C [18 °F]) and drying.
   - Some land areas could warm by seven degrees [12.6 F] or more.
   - Rainfall could decrease by 20% or more in some areas, although there is
   a spread in the magnitude of drying. All computer models indicate 
reductions
   in rainfall over western and southern Africa, Central America, the
   Mediterranean and parts of coastal Australia.
   - In other areas, such as India, rainfall could increase by 20% or more.
   Higher rainfall increases the risk of river flooding.

In fact, though, this is ‘only’ the 5.4°C case, and if it doesn’t happen in
the 2060s (which it probably won’t), it is merely the business as usual
projection (!) for 2100 (see “M.I.T. doubles its 2095 warming projection to
10°F — with 866 ppm and Arctic warming of
20°F<http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/20/mit-doubles-global-warming-projections-2/>
“).

CONCLUSION:  *Unrestricted emissions of greenhouse gases threaten multiple
catastrophes, any one of which justifies action.  Together, they represent
the gravest threat to humanity imaginable.  The fact that the overwhelming
majority of the mainstream media ignored the overwhelming majority of these
studies and devoted a large fraction of its climate ‘ink’ in the last 12
months to what was essentially a non-story is arguably the single greatest
failing of the science media this year.*

I didn’t have space here to report on the many studies that bolstered the
case for our understanding that recent warming has been unequivocal and that
humans are the primary cause.  But indeed the case is so strong that this
year, even the normally staid U.S. National Academy of Sciences labeled as
“settled facts” that “the Earth system is warming and that much of this
warming is very likely due to human
activities.”<http://climateprogress.org/2010/05/19/national-academy-of-sciences-america%e2%80%99s-climate-choices-global-warming/>