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  • From: Toby Hemenway <toby@patternliteracy.com>
  • To: permaculture <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: [permaculture] Economists don't get it
  • Date: Thu, 04 Mar 2010 08:15:39 -0800

I was just sent this excerpt from an interview with Nobel-prize winning economist Milton Friedman in which he says incredibly stupid things. It's proof that economists think that the laws of their field trump the laws of physics, and gives an indication as to why conventional thinking is not going to solve many problems. Unfortunately, it was sent without a reference, so I don't know where it's from.

Toby
http://patternliteracy.com

**/Ravaioli/****/:/**/ But there are many other environmental problems .../

**Nobel Laureate Friedman:** Of course. Take oil, for example. Everyone says it's a limited resource: physically it may be, but economically we don't know. Economically there is more oil today than there was a hundred years ago. When it was still under the ground and no one knew it was there, it wasn't economically available. When resources are really limited prices go up, but the price of oil has gone down and down. Suppose oil became scarce: the price would go up, and people would start using other energy sources. In a proper price system the market can take care of the problem.

**/Ravaioli/****/:/**/ But we know that it takes millions of years to create an oil well, and we can't reproduce it. Relying on oil means living on our capital and not on the interest, which would be the sensible course. Don't you agree?/

**Nobel Laureate Friedman:** If we were living on the capital, the market price would go up. The price of truly limited resources will rise over time. The price of oil has not been rising, so we're not living on the capital. When that is no longer true, the price system will give a signal and the price of oil will go up. As always happens with a truly limited resource.

**/Ravaioli/****/:/**/ Of course the discovery of new oil wells has given the illusion of unlimited oil …/

**Nobel Laureate Friedman:** Why an illusion?

**/Ravaioli/****/:/**/ Because we know it’s a limited resource./

**Nobel Laureate Friedman:** Excuse me, it's not limited from an economic point of view. You have to separate the economic from the physical point of view. Many of the mistakes people make come from this. Like the stupid projections of the Club of Rome: they used a purely physical approach, without taking prices into account. There are many different sources of energy, some of which are too expensive to be exploited now. But if oil becomes scarce they will be exploited. But the market, which is fortunately capable of registering and using widely scattered knowledge and information from people all over the world, will take account of those changes.





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