permaculture

["Lawrence F. London, Jr." <lflj@intrex.net>]

This tutorial could surely be useful in the practice of Permaculture
when observing natural systems and taking a site inventory.

=======

<http://www.boingboing.net/2008/05/06/cias-psychology-of-i.html>
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CIA's Psychology of Intelligence Analysis book online
Posted by David Pescovitz, May 6, 2008 10:56 AM | permalink
The CIA has posted the full text of one of its guidebooks, "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis." The 1999 book was 
published by the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence. It's interesting to just dip into it randomly and read 
little bits here and there.

    Library Center-For-The-Study-Of-Intelligence Csi-Publications Books-And-Monographs 
Psychology-Of-Intelligence-Analysis CoverOf the diverse problems that impede accurate intelligence analysis, those 
inherent in human mental processes are surely among the most important and most difficult to deal with. Intelligence 
analysis is fundamentally a mental process, but understanding this process is hindered by the lack of conscious 
awareness of the workings of our own minds...

    "When we speak of improving the mind we are usually referring to the acquisition of information or knowledge, or to 
the type of thoughts one should have, and not to the actual functioning of the mind. We spend little time monitoring our 
own thinking and comparing it with a more sophisticated ideal."

    When we speak of improving intelligence analysis, we are usually referring to the quality of writing, types of 
analytical products, relations between intelligence analysts and intelligence consumers, or organization of the 
analytical process. Little attention is devoted to improving how analysts think.

    Thinking analytically is a skill like carpentry or driving a car. It can be taught, it can be learned, and it can 
improve with practice. But like many other skills, such as riding a bike, it is not learned by sitting in a classroom 
and being told how to do it. Analysts learn by doing. Most people achieve at least a minimally acceptable level of 
analytical performance with little conscious effort beyond completing their education. With much effort and hard work, 
however, analysts can achieve a level of excellence beyond what comes naturally...

    A central focus of this book is to illuminate the role of the observer in determining what is observed and how it 
is interpreted. People construct their own version of "reality" on the basis of information provided by the senses, but 
this sensory input is mediated by complex mental processes that determine which information is attended to, how it is 
organized, and the meaning attributed to it. What people perceive, how readily they perceive it, and how they process 
this information after receiving it are all strongly influenced by past experience, education, cultural values, role 
requirements, and organizational norms, as well as by the specifics of the information received.

    This process may be visualized as perceiving the world through a lens or screen that channels and focuses and 
thereby may distort the images that are seen.

Link (via Further: Strange Attractor & Beyond)

Discussion
Take a look at this
#1 posted by markmarkmark , May 6, 2008 11:21 AM

It is by will alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the juice of sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire 
stains, the stains become a warning. It is by will alone I set my mind in motion.

Another great read that I use a class material (though you have to buy it) is "The Thinker's Toolkit", by Morgan Jones, 
who taught analytic techniques at the CIA.

The analysts work very hard at sorting out the data for hard decisions with incomplete information given by very human 
subjects. It's a pity that their agency and policy makers have floundered so badly with the results.
Take a look at this
#4 posted by David Pescovitz , May 6, 2008 11:52 AM

@Thinkerer (#3), That does look like an interesting book. Thanks for the tip! At Institute for the Future, we try to 
distinguish between "problems" (that can be solved) and "dilemmas" (which have to be managed but can't be solved.) This 
notion definitely relates to the challenges of the intelligence community. More on that thought in this previous post.
Take a look at this
#5 posted by Dave Parker , May 6, 2008 12:36 PM

The CIA has always maintained that they don't particularly have access to superior information, they simply apply 
superior analysis. It sort of works to cross purposes to say that, of course, since the case for war in Iraq didn't make 
any sense on the information available to the public. It will be interesting to see what kind of superior analysis goes 
into these policy reports.
Take a look at this
#9 posted by Sister Y , May 6, 2008 4:10 PM

Thanks so much for the resource - it's nice to have a fairly-authoritative-but-still-accessible resource on cognitive 
bias. Perhaps the best part is that practically every claim is footnoted, in case you want to look up the journal 
article he's citing as evidence.

I don't think this only applies to intelligence analysis, though. I find it hard to think of a field where a grasp of 
cognitive bias wouldn't be a huge benefit.

@Shiseiji - MA in Emergency Management, that sounds awesome!
Take a look at this
#10 posted by shiseiji , May 6, 2008 4:48 PM


Central Intelligence Agency
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/index.html

Mission

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is an independent US Government agency responsible for providing national security 
intelligence to senior US policymakers.

For more on the Agency's mission, visit our Strategic Intent.
        
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CIA Home > Library > Center for the Study of Intelligence > CSI Publications > Books and Monographs > Psychology of 
Intelligence Analysis > Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis


History Staff
Center for the Study of Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
1999

Download PDF version [1.9 MB]
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Richards J. Heuer, Jr.

        
Table of Contents

    * Author's Preface
    * Foreword by Douglas MacEachin
    * Introduction by Jack Davis

    * PART I--OUR MENTAL MACHINERY
    * Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking
    * Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There to Be Seen?
    * Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?

    * PART II--TOOLS FOR THINKING
    * Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits 
of Incomplete Information
    * Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information?
    * Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind
    * Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems
    * Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

    * PART III--COGNITIVE BIASES
    * Chapter 9: What Are Cognitive Biases?
    * Chapter 10: Biases in Evaluation of Evidence
    * Chapter 11: Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect
    * Chapter 12: Biases in Estimating Probabilities
    * Chapter 13: Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting

    * PART IV--CONCLUSIONS
    * Chapter 14: Improving Intelligence Analysis

Posted: 2007-03-16 13:52
Last Updated: 2007-03-16 13:52
Last Reviewed: 2007-03-16 13:52