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http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2976669.ece
'Too late to avoid global warming,' say scientists 

By Cahal Milmo 

Published: 19 September 2007 







A rise of two degrees centigrade in global temperatures – the point 
considered to be the threshold for catastrophic climate change which will 
expose millions to drought, hunger and flooding – is now "very unlikely" to 
be avoided, the world's leading climate scientists said yesterday.

The latest study from the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change (IPCC) put the inevitability of drastic global warming in the starkest 
terms yet, stating that major impacts on parts of the world – in particular 
Africa, Asian river deltas, low-lying islands and the Arctic – are 
unavoidable and the focus must be on adapting life to survive the most 
devastating changes.

For more than a decade, EU countries led by Britain have set a rise of two 
degrees centigrade or less in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels 
as the benchmark after which the effects of climate become devastating, with 
crop failures, water shortages, sea-level rises, species extinctions and 
increased disease.

Two years ago, an authoritative study predicted there could be as little as 
10 years before this "tipping point" for global warming was reached, adding a 
rise of 0.8 degrees had already been reached with further rises already 
locked in because of the time lag in the way carbon dioxide – the principal 
greenhouse gas – is absorbed into the atmosphere.

The IPCC said yesterday that the effects of this rise are being felt sooner 
than anticipated with the poorest countries and the poorest people set to 
suffer the worst of shifts in rainfall patterns, temperature rises and the 
viability of agriculture across much of the developing world.

In its latest assessment of the progress of climate change, the body said: 
"If warming is not kept below two degrees centigrade, which will require the 
strongest mitigation efforts, and currently looks very unlikely to be 
achieved, the substantial global impacts will occur, such as species 
extinctions, and millions of people at risk from drought, hunger, flooding."

Under the scale of risk used by IPCC, the words "very unlikely" mean there is 
just a one to 10 per cent chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 
two degrees centigrade or less.

Professor Martin Parry, a senior Met Office scientist and co-chairman of the 
IPCC committee which produced the report, said he believed it would now be 
"very difficult" to achieve the target and that governments need to combine 
efforts to "mitigate" climate change by reducing CO2 emissions with 
"adaptation" to tackle active consequences such as crop failure and flooding.

Speaking at the Royal Geographical Society, he said: "Ten years ago we were 
talking about these impacts affecting our children and our grandchildren. Now 
it is happening to us."

"Even if we achieve a cap at two degrees, there is a stock of major impacts 
out there already and that means adaptation. You cannot mitigate your way out 
of this problem... The choice is between a damaged world or a future with a 
severely damaged world."

The IPCC assessment states that up to two billion people worldwide will face 
water shortages and up to 30 per cent of plant and animal species would be 
put at risk of extinction if the average rise in temperature stabilises at 
1.5C to 2.5C.

Professor Parry said developed countries needed to help the most affected 
regions, which include sub-Saharan Africa and major Asian river deltas with 
improved technology for irrigation, drought-resistant crop strains and 
building techniques.

Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the IPCC, said that 2015 was the last year 
in which the world could afford a net rise in greenhouse gas emissions, after 
which "very sharp reductions" are required.

Dr Pachauri said the ability of the world's most populous nations to feed 
themselves was already under pressure, citing a study in India which showed 
that peak production of wheat had already been reached in one region.

Campaigners said the IPCC findings brought added urgency to the EU's efforts 
to slash emissions. John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace, said: "The 
EU needs to adopt a science-based cap on emissions, ditch plans for dirty new 
coal plants and nuclear power stations that will give tiny emission cuts at 
enormous and dangerous cost, end aviation expansion and ban wasteful products 
like incandescent lightbulbs."

Plus two degrees: the consequences

Arica: Between 350 and 600 million people will suffer water shortages or 
increased competition for water. Yields from agriculture could fall by half 
by 2020 while arid areas will rise by up to 8 per cent. The number of 
sub-Saharan species at risk of extinction will rise by at least 10 per cent.

Asia: Up to a billion people will suffer water shortages as supplies dwindle 
with the melting of Himalayan glaciers. Maize and wheat yields will fall by 
up to 5 per cent in India; rice crops in China will drop by up to 12 per 
cent. Increased risk of coastal flooding.

Australia/New Zealand: Between 3,000 and 5,000 more heat-related deaths a 
year. Water supplies will no longer be guaranteed in parts of southern and 
eastern Australia by 2030. Annual bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.

Europe: Warmer temperatures will increase wheat yields by up to 25 per cent 
in the north but water availability will drop in the south by up to a 
quarter. Heatwaves, forest fires and extreme weather events such as flash 
floods will be more frequent. New diseases will appear.

Latin America: Up to 77 million people will face water shortages and tropical 
glaciers will disappear. Tropical forests will become savanna and there will 
be increased risk of coastal flooding in low-lying areas such as El Salvador 
and Guyana.

North America: Crop yields will increase by up to 20 per cent due to warmer 
temperatures but economic damage from extreme weather events such as 
Hurricane Katrina will continue increasing.

Polar regions: The seasonal thaw of permafrost will increase by 15 per cent 
and the overall extent of the permafrost will shrink by about 20 per cent. 
Indigenous communities such as the Inuit face loss of traditional lifestyle.

Small islands: Low-lying islands are particularly vulnerable to rising sea 
levels with the Maldives already suffering land loss. 



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