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  • From: Wesley Roe and Marjorie Lakin Erickson <lakinroe@silcom.com>
  • To: permaculture <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>, eastbaypermaculture@yahoogroups.com, permaculture@openpermaculture.org
  • Subject: [permaculture] Seven Trends Shaping the Future of Our Planet, The Little Green Handbook Ron Nielsen
  • Date: Tue, 22 Aug 2006 19:24:19 -0700

The Little Green Handbook
a guide to critical global trends

http://home.iprimus.com.au/nielsens/index.html

http://home.iprimus.com.au/nielsens/trends.html#future

CALLED
Seven Trends Shaping the Future of Our Planet
The Little Green Handbook ISBN: 0312425813
(the US edition, 2006)

Ron Nielsen

‘Ron Nielsen’s book is a fantastic reference ... What’s amazing about this book is the amount of data and research material put into it ... it certainly belongs in any good school or university library.’ — Tony O’Loughlin, Australian Bookseller & Publisher

‘The Little Green Handbook gives an excellent summary of the essential facts and figures of global environmental change while giving a broader view of what these continuing developments will mean for humanity ... Nielsen’s attention to detail and breadth of research is extraordinary. His ability to graph and tabulate complex ideas about social decline or the energy crisis in an accessible and interesting form make this book a truly valuable source of information for any environmental or social justice activist.’ — Sarah Thorne, Socialist Worker

‘The intelligent organisation of the material, the concern for the wellbeing of people throughout the world and the easy style kept me engaged till the end ... This book has disturbed me. I hope you read all of it too.’— National Parks Journal

'The Little Green Handbook is an invaluable publication for all who care about our global environment. It is also a timely call to action in terms of making healthy choices and lobbying our politicians to do the same - for all our sakes.' — Kerry Hennigan, Travelscene International

While debates about the state of the global environment rage on many fronts, it is often hard to get accurate and relevant information about what is happening. Just how serious are our environmental problems? And are we doing enough to deal with them?

For example, how many people can the planet sustain? What are the long-term effects of continued environmental damage? How fast is the process of global warming? What are the implications of our continued dependence on fossil fuels? How much fresh water is available, and how long will it last?

The Little Green Handbook has the answers. Based on a massive amount of research, this user-friendly narrative is filled with up-to-date facts and figures about the most serious trends facing the planet. It is a unique reference work that draws together scientific evidence across a range of inter-related fields to present an incontrovertible picture of the state of our world.

The Little Green Handbook is the essential reference book on the subjects it deals with. Anyone who needs this kind of information — students, journalists, professionals, policy-makers, and general readers — will find it here.

Dr Ron Nielsen was born and educated in Poland. He conducted research in the Department of Nuclear Physics at the Australian National University, and worked in research institutes in Poland, England, Germany and Switzerland. The author of numerous scientific papers in peer-reviewed professional international journals, Dr Nielsen is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Physics and an active member of the New York Academy of Sciences. His biography appears in several Who's Who publications.

What makes the book so special and why should you be interested to read it?

The unique features of the book include:
Acclaimed by a wide range of readers. This book has now been praised by a wide range of readers— common readers and top academics.
All in one. The book contains a description of all critical global trends. You don't have to read many books, which discuss isolated issues—you have it all here in this one, relatively small volume.
Well packed. This book is packed with information. I've tried to avoid padding and rambling. This should give you a good value for your money.
Easy to read.The book deals with complex issues from a wide range of disciplines but it is written in a simple language. Anyone who can read a newspaper will be able to understand my book.
Reliable. The book contains unbiased information from reliable sources. Whenever necessary, I have also carried out calculations to check the claims made by other authors and to extend the existing research by adding new results.
Reference source. Even though the book is written using a simple language, it is already used as a reliable source of information by people conducting research.
Subsections. I have broken the text into short subtitled subsections. You can read the book from cover to cover or you can read just one subsection at a time. You do not have to work hard to learn something useful.
Tables and boxes. Each table is self-contained. You do not have to search laboriously through the text to understand the listed numbers. You can take any table and you will find that it contains everything you need to have to understand and to interpret the numbers. The same applies to boxes. So again, as with the subsections, you don't have to read the whole book or the whole chapter. You can just read information presented in a single table or box and understand it.
In conclusion. We all live on the same planet and the current critical global trends will affect us all to a greater or lesser degree. We all need to understand what is happening around us and how the critical events shape our future and the future of our children. You will find everything you need to know in this one concise and easy-to-read volume.



What prompted me to write this book

I am a nuclear scientist but I am also interested in a wide range of other fields. I have been interested in environmental and social issues for a long time but never as strongly as I am now. This renewed interest was triggered by a public lecture at Bond University, Gold Coast, Australia. At the end of the lecture a speaker had shown a graph, which was supposed to illustrate how fast the global population was increasing and how it would cause a global crash in a certain year. The graph seemed convincing but I decided to check his claim.

I have found that unfortunately the speaker have not included all the data points on the global population. His general idea was correct but had he included all the data points, the graph would have looked less dramatic. After including all the data points the graph indicated a possibility of a soft landing rather than of an inevitable crash.

One thing led to another and I found myself analysing an increasing number of data not only in relation to global or local populations but also in relation to other environmental and social issues. Doing research is my passion, and my investigation of environmental and social issues was aimed at satisfying my curiosity. I wanted to see what is true and what is not about various claims.

I have soon found that people were interested in what I was doing. This has led to a long series of radio programs. My listeners were asking me for my book, which did not exist so I prepared for them a short summary. They wanted to know more, so I prepared for them another, a little longer summary. Eventually, all this led to the publication of The Little Green Handbook.



Am I a green activist?

The title of the book might suggest that I am a green activist, but I am not. If you look for a way to describe me in connection with this book then perhaps a concerned scientist could be a sufficiently good description. But a similar description could also apply to you if you share my concern about the future of the human race.

I do not belong to any environmental organisation and I do not subscribe to any dogma about the environmental or social issues. If green or other activists propagate ideas, which make sense I will accept them. If not I will reject them.

I'm a scientist with many years of experience in research and one cannot be a scientist without a good dose of skepticism. Scientists have a habit of asking penetrating questions. Science is a self-correcting discipline and scientists have to be critical not only about what other people do but also about their own research procedures and results.

Above all I also like the truth. Creating fictions stories is good for fiction writers but not for scientists. And so, when I was doing my research and when I was writing the book I had no axe to grind, no preconceived ideas to support, and no cherished theory to defend with a blind determination.

I do not subscribe to doomsday ideas. The purpose of my book is not to create panic. This would be counterproductive. The book presents an unbiased, clinical assessment of the health of our planet, which doesn't have to be terminal.

Unlike other books on similar topics it contains an objective analysis of all critical global trends. This is important because if we can see all of them explained in one place we can have a better picture of the problems we have to solve and we can better appreciate how important it is to solve them.

I consciously avoided expressing my opinions in the book. I made also an effort not to become emotionally involved. My aim was not only to present a truthful account of the state of the world but also to outline what we should do to create a better future for our children, and what we can expect if we neglect our duty of care, that is if we do little or nothing to change the course of the critical global trends.


Are we doomed?

If by being doomed you mean that we are predestinated to perish and if you ask me for my opinion then the answer is NO. However, we can cause a doomsday if we continue to behave foolishly. So the choice belongs to us and if we chose to neglect our opportunity to do what's right we shall only have ourselves to blame.

Many intellectuals who understand the critical global events are concerned about the future of our planet. (See the warning of the top world intellectuals. See also the International Society of Doctors for the Environment, click The Organisation, then Purpose, and read and Impending Global Dangers.)

The general consensus is that we do not have much time left to change the course of the critical global events and that if we don't do what's right we shall miss the opportunity to solve the critical global issues. Indeed, there's a justified fear that we might cause our self-extinction or that we might create unbearable living conditions on our planet possibly within only a few decades.

It's not for us to decide whether our future is already determined. Whatever believes and interpretations we might have about the critical global trends it would be wrong to assume a fatalistic attitude, do nothing, and wait for the sky to fall on our heads.

We still have many options opened for us, and it is our duty to explore them. But first we have to understand the problems that need to be solved and critical issues that threaten our survival. I have written The Little Green Handbook for this very purpose — not to predict the future and not to tell you what will definitely happen to us, but rather what is likely to happen if the current critical global trends are allowed to continue without anyone's interference.

Why we should be interested in critical global trends

Live for today, plan for tomorrow


For the first time in human history the current critical global trends and events have strong influence on our common future. They affect us all. They threaten our existence on this planet, and in particular, they threaten the future of our children and grandchildren. If there is ever a good reason to pay undivided attention to important issues, we have it now.


Alarming indifference

I am not a crusader but after carrying out research that has led to the publication of The Little Green Handbook I am disappointed that there is such little interest in the current critical global developments.

People who hold responsible positions are more interested in scoring points and in appearing smart than in doing what is right.

Religious leaders who claim to be able to read and interpret signs of the time and who are supposed to warn the world about incoming dangers do not keep pace with the current critical global events.

Members of the public are too busy trying to cope with their personal problems or they look for an escape in easily available attractions and entertainments.

Those who see dangers and sound the alarm are either ignored and brushed aside or criticised and condemned. Meanwhile the critical global trends develop uninterrupted. The associated with them events increase in their number and intensity.

How many people know about the developing dangers and how many people care? The general attitude is that surely the state of the world cannot be that bad. Surely life will go on as before or even better. So why to worry?



Can we create a better future on our planet?

This question opens a long and complex topic but let me try to deal with it as briefly as I can.

If we consider the natural potential of our planet then the answer is YES. However, if we introduce human factor, then the answer is less certain.

We crossed the boundary of ecological limits of our planet about 20 years ago. Under our current management, planet Earth can support a maximum of only around 2 billion people at a reasonably comfortable style of living.

At present, (i.e. at the time of writing of these comments — see the population counter ) we have around 6.5 billion people living on our planet. Thus we have a surplus of about 4.5 billion people but they still desperately cling to life. Many of them live in countries where their children are so hungry that they behave like birds, picking up even single grains from a dirty ground.

Over 800 million people, the equivalent of the population living in affluent countries, live with hunger and many of them die of hunger each year. About 2.4 billion people, nearly twice the population of industrialised countries, suffer severe water stress. We do not appreciate the degree of their depravation because we live in countries where the standard of living is relatively high.

However, we also do not realise that our planet has a huge hidden potential to support life. We have an exceptionally rich planet. I see solutions to most, if not to all, of our current critical problems. Maybe I shall deal with this topic in my next book.

With our rich natural resources it is possible to create paradise on Earth. It is possible to have an abundance of food, land, water, and clean energy for everyone. By using rich resources of nature we could have a world of beauty and comfort. The possibilities, which are already exploited include nanotechnology, quantum computers, cures to most if not to all diseases, and longevity. However, nature is so rich that we can hardly imagine how much it can offer us.

And so, I have no doubt that we could have a paradise on Earth. However, the question is: Can we, or will we, create it? Here the answer is not so clear.

An important step in achieving this end would be to work together. Many businesses offer environmentally friendly products and services. Many organisations work on solving critical problems. Many scientist work on unraveling secrets of nature and on applying them to improve our lives. At the same time many military strategists work equally hard on using new discoveries to increase their destructive power.

However, even if we consider environmentally and socially friendly business or organisations we shall soon discover that they do not work together but rather in virtual isolation. It is like a group of ants pulling an attractive and useful object. They pull the same object but they all pull it in various directions. Their progress, if any, is slow and erratic.

Our progress in solving critical global problems is also slow and erratic. Meanwhile critical global trends continue along their predictable pathways and the problems they reflect become progressively more difficult to solve.

Consider, for instance, the problem of climate change. We should now work vigorously together on reducing and phasing out our use of fossil fuels. Instead, our use of fossil fuels increases.

The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increases rapidly and we might have already reached a point of no return. Even if we now started seriously reducing our use of fossil fuels the damage we have already created is so great that global climate change will continue for a long time. Global warming is already so advanced that it is even likely to develop into a runaway process.

The example about the ants pulling an object reminds me of another similar and relevant example. I observed an ant pulling a heavy object along the concrete surface of our patio. The object was at least 5 times larger than the ant.

Our patio slab is made of a stamped concrete that imitates interlocked stone slates. The ant therefore had to negotiate not only an uneven surface but also sizable and formidable crevices. The ant was making a steady progress in a well-defined direction but the progress was slow and laborious.

Then I saw another ant running happily not far from the first ant. So I thought: "Why not to bring them together and let them pull the same object." The second ant looked like the first one so I assumed that they belonged to the same clan.

It took me awhile to convince the second ant to be interested in what was going on but eventually the second ant got the message. It recognised the presence of the first ant, examined the pulled object and left. That was it. The first ant continued to pull the object. It continued for a relatively long distance but then abandoned it.

How many good projects are abandoned because individuals or individual organisation receive no help, no appreciation, and no support.? We might have good ideas and good intentions but if we do not work together we make little or no progress.

The inadequate collaboration between environmentally friendly business and organisations is disturbing but it represents a relatively mild side of the general problem. Much more sinister and dangerous are individuals and organisations that work either openly or secretly against each other.

How soon, if ever, can we expect Palestinians to live in peace with Israelis? How soon can we expect terrorists to become friendly and care for building a sustainable future for all inhabitants of our planet? How soon can we expect businesses to be guided not by greed but by what is good for our planet and for future generations? How soon can we expect politicians to work together and to care for our common future? How soon can we expect to see that all weapons of mass destruction and other lethal military inventions are made redundant?

We can have a paradise on Earth but it sounds like utopia. What will it be?












  • [permaculture] Seven Trends Shaping the Future of Our Planet, The Little Green Handbook Ron Nielsen, Wesley Roe and Marjorie Lakin Erickson, 08/22/2006

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