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  • From: "Harold Waldock" <hwaldock@telus.net>
  • To: "Permaculture@Lists. Ibiblio. Org" <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: [permaculture] Permaculture Urban or Rural: Design Principle "Prepare for disaster" - What about financial system collapse and dominos to trade collapse?
  • Date: Fri, 16 Jun 2006 17:33:07 -0700

Given what I know, I would be remiss to fail to warn fellow students of
Permaculture on the coming difficulties of our money system especially as so
many of us are urban based.

I feel that I would not do my duty to my friends, the members of this list
if I did not outline my fears for your livelihood. Please respond to this
list. I may not be able to dialogue much as I have the pattern of dropping a
topic bombshell only to fail to respond to the discussion due to other
pressing responsibilities.

The Causes and The Situation

Current financial system and its lies :
http://www.silverstrategies.com/story.aspx?local=0&id=2018

The Great Inflation should be read first at
http://www.financialsense.com/perspectives.htm as it explains carefully the
problem of fiat currency.

Money what it is and how it works Jim Puplava of Financialsense.com
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/main.htm
Triggers for Collapse: The Perfect Storm Series Jim Puplava of
Financialsense.com http://www.financialsense.com/series2/perspectives2.htm
What it looks like today to live in mid-late inflationary spiral with
multiple bubble markets: The Day after Tomorrow
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/0222.html Jim Puplava of
Financialsense.com (easy to read and understand but not simplistic by any
measure)

Another area is the Gold investors websites such as Chris Liard's
www.prudentsquirrel.com where he talks about the effects of deflation that
happen after any crisis in Survival Crisis (Perhaps it is on www.Kitco.com
under his name). Deflation means people can't work because people don't
spend because they can't make money doing either. Lots of economic and
social situations that repeat though history mean that one has mainly to
look after one's own needs i.e. plant a garden, burn wood, etc because you
can't work for anything or you can't pay for what you want. In the
undeveloped countries trade, industry, commerce and even paid labour systems
barely work so why bother just go to your farm and look after your family
from there.

Others have made the link between their current high standard of living and
the realistic consequences of the now highly likely monetary collapse in the
near future. Bill Mollison was quite concerned. His writings suggest he was
aware that the financial system was not well founded since Nixon closed the
gold window (convertibility) in 1971. It was a global concern from 1978
till about 1985 when the interest rates started to fall. You don't want to
be in the the US of the Wiemar Republic (a word play on the USA) when the
dollars value crashes. Reserve currencies fall harder and more suddenly than
most.

Causes of the monetary collapse:

1) A currency or medium of exchange not based of units of real value. I.e.
the US Dollar. "A monetary unit is worth the marginal cost of its
production"
The money in your wallet or purse or bank is not convertible to gold or
silver and is otherwise worthless. The accurate name for it is "Worthless
transaction tokens" You can fool some people all the time, you can fool all
people some of the time but you can't fool all the people all the time. If
you own dollars who is the fool?

2) High levels of irrational speculation across many important market places
i.e. the Land Price bubble we have now. It is coming apart in a hurry these
days in many parts.
3) High levels of debt across the personal, business and government. How
many of us live on our Visa and Mastercards?
4) Major trading partners in a crisis - Politics happen
5) Energy costs higher and rising sharply - the well runs dry after Peak Oil
production.
6) A severe test of the market. An event, not easily predictable, creating
difficult to resolve effects that affects the markets in a significant way.
War, Derivatives Crisis, Oil embargo, regime change in a big oil producing
country, weather or earthquake or many other events.


Sure signs of a impending crisis are near or that you have a crisis now:

1) A paper currency with no convertibility over 34 years given no paper
currency in all of history has lasted longer than 40. I'm talking about the
US Dollar and all currencies now in existence: i.e. Euro, Swiss Franc (hard
currency they could make it convertible to gold but it is not convertible),
Canadian Dollar (40% income come from trade 80% of that from the US)
2) There is higher and higher inflation - even the Federal Reserve is
voicing concern. A strongly rising Gold Price (recent correction has not
changed the risk much)
3) The government tells lies. - Consumer Price Inflation is CPI is 6% below
the old method of measuring it.
3) Government does increasingly wild and unreasonable including the
confiscation of property, taking the life of innocent people (French
Revolution). In 1933 the New Deal of F.D. Roosevelt meant that all gold was
confiscated by the government and paper money was given to the people
instead. More recently Argentina closed the banks for months and devalued
by more than 50%.
4) There are Bank Failures because people try to get their money out. We
have had in Canada 2 failures of bank like institutions last year Portus
mutual fund and another one I forget the name of. People rushed to get
their money out when the word got around but most people's money was trapped
and may be delivered cents on the dollar. When there are bank failures it
means the system is going down. The Yen carry trade is unwinding - meaning
the end of borrowing cheap Yen to buy US treasuries. Maybe a hedge fund
and their bank will go down then it is dominos from there.

Consequences for us and our families, friends and society.

Shortage of real money acceptable for trade
Economic collapse and unemployment
Economic disruption to production and consumption - wrenching changes force
the economy to be dislocated and requiring time before production can meet
consumption requirements. High unemployment for years.
Shortage of key supplies that can be traded for by labour. Food and heating
not available at previous quantities or price.
Social unrest, violent mobs and unstable and/or unreasonable and unjust
government (Bill Mollison notes that in the PDM)

What we can do now to avoid the worst (please add to the list!)

Study Permaculture, get manuals on practical things, DIY medical, food
preparation and storage etc etc Encyclopaedia of Country Living etc etc.
Sell all dollar assets: Bonds, GIC, Money Market, Treasuries, etc. as
inflation will eat it all up.
Sell Shares., mutual funds as the stock market is still near a top or can go
down lots further (sell on a dead cat bounce that is common - but be out by
October.
Buy Gold, Silver, but don't tell anybody hide it below where the metal
detectors can find it. (do not keep it in the bank or in a place quickly
searched. Now, June 16 is a very good time to buy Gold or if poor Silver.
You should have some around no matter what - it is a first aid kit for
purchasing power.
Buy Guns (Think about life in South Africa or Zimbabwe or US slums - you
need personal protection), If you are rural, hunting time honoured way to
get meat. (every time a mill closes in rural BC the wildlife #'s take a
steep drop in the area.)
Sell urban homes (over priced) buy rural properties near your friends that
have income opportunities: good soil, good trees, good electrical power
production, near abundant natural resources you can eat or burn (for heat)
or trade.
Study truth where you can find it and tell the truth to those who will
listen because we can't look after ourselves by ourselves only - we need
each other.
Organize to be of help to each other in times of need - make sure you have
lots of friends nearby.




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