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  • From: "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net>
  • To: livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] Rising crop demand driving up fertilizer prices
  • Date: Thu, 08 May 2008 22:17:27 -0600


They won't IMHO. But we can do what we can where we are.

paul tradingpost@lobo.net

*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********

On 5/8/2008 at 2:22 PM bruce smith wrote:

>sounds like the Powers That Be need to realize the potential of all the
>crap
>and yard waste as well as organic garbage we through out as a world!!.. so
>much of this can be recycled..
>
>On Thu, May 8, 2008 at 10:55 AM, <mdnagel@verizon.net> wrote:
>
>> It should start to become quite obvious that the current system isn't,
>and
>> could never be, up to the task of meeting our future food needs.
>>
>>
>> Source: http://www.rgemonitor.com/635?cluster_id=9828
>>
>> # Global fertilizer prices rose >200% in 2007 as farmers tried to
>maximize
>> crop yields to cash in on record crop prices partly driven up by biofuel
>> production. Demand to outstrip supply until 2012
>>
>> # Phosphate fertilizer tripled from $252/ton in Jan 2007 to $752/ton by
>> Jan 2008
>>
>> # In 1960 developed countries accounted for 88% of world fertilizer
>> consumption. By 2001 their share had fallen to 37%, developing countries
>> accounting for 63%. Developing Asia alone accounts for 49%
>>
>> # China is the world's largest potash importer, consuming 21% of the
>> global potash market. US buys 18%, and Brazil takes 15%. Apr 20-Sep 30,
>> China doubled export duty on raw materials for potash, for which it
>supplies
>> between 20-30% of global trade volume of the plant feed
>>
>> # Output growth lags demand growth. Low prices in previous decades
>> depressed capacity expansion
>>
>> # Global production is running at or near capacity for all three of the
>> major fertilizer nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate and potash
>>
>> # Long time lags to develop new capacity: Building a new nitrogen complex
>> takes at least 3 years. 3-4 years for a phosphate fertilizer plant and 7
>> years for a potash mine
>>
>> # Canada is largest producer while Russia is swing producer. Russia caps
>> fertilizer exports
>>
>> # FAO: Between 2007-2012, world surplus expected to increase annually by
>> 21.2% to reach about 11% of total demand in 2011/1. Phosphate to have
>> tightest balance
>>
>> # Potash Corp. share price shot up from $2 in $1990 to $200 in 2008, with
>> most of the price rise occuring after 2003
>>
>> # Price of nitrogen fertilizers directly related to the price of natural
>> gas (methane)
>>






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