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livingontheland - Re: [Livingontheland] Rising crop demand driving up fertilizer prices

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Chronological Thread  
  • From: "Tradingpost" <tradingpost@lobo.net>
  • To: livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] Rising crop demand driving up fertilizer prices
  • Date: Thu, 08 May 2008 09:40:50 -0600


Or our current food needs, considering nutrition

paul tradingpost@lobo.net

*********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********

On 5/8/2008 at 9:55 AM mdnagel@verizon.net wrote:

>It should start to become quite obvious that the current system isn't,
>and could never be, up to the task of meeting our future food needs.
>
>
>Source: http://www.rgemonitor.com/635?cluster_id=9828
>
># Global fertilizer prices rose >200% in 2007 as farmers tried to maximize
>crop yields to cash in on record crop prices partly driven up by biofuel
>production. Demand to outstrip supply until 2012
>
># Phosphate fertilizer tripled from $252/ton in Jan 2007 to $752/ton by
>Jan 2008
>
># In 1960 developed countries accounted for 88% of world fertilizer
>consumption. By 2001 their share had fallen to 37%, developing countries
>accounting for 63%. Developing Asia alone accounts for 49%
>
># China is the world's largest potash importer, consuming 21% of the
>global potash market. US buys 18%, and Brazil takes 15%. Apr 20-Sep 30,
>China doubled export duty on raw materials for potash, for which it
>supplies between 20-30% of global trade volume of the plant feed
>
># Output growth lags demand growth. Low prices in previous decades
>depressed capacity expansion
>
># Global production is running at or near capacity for all three of the
>major fertilizer nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate and potash
>
># Long time lags to develop new capacity: Building a new nitrogen complex
>takes at least 3 years. 3-4 years for a phosphate fertilizer plant and 7
>years for a potash mine
>
># Canada is largest producer while Russia is swing producer. Russia caps
>fertilizer exports
>
># FAO: Between 2007-2012, world surplus expected to increase annually by
>21.2% to reach about 11% of total demand in 2011/1. Phosphate to have
>tightest balance
>
># Potash Corp. share price shot up from $2 in $1990 to $200 in 2008, with
>most of the price rise occuring after 2003
>
># Price of nitrogen fertilizers directly related to the price of natural
>gas (methane)
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