Healthy soil and sustainable growing

[<mdnagel@verizon.net>]

It should start to become quite obvious that the current system isn't, and 
could never be, up to the task of meeting our future food needs.


Source: http://www.rgemonitor.com/635?cluster_id=9828

# Global fertilizer prices rose >200% in 2007 as farmers tried to maximize 
crop yields to cash in on record crop prices partly driven up by biofuel 
production. Demand to outstrip supply until 2012

# Phosphate fertilizer tripled from $252/ton in Jan 2007 to $752/ton by Jan 
2008

# In 1960 developed countries accounted for 88% of world fertilizer 
consumption. By 2001 their share had fallen to 37%, developing countries 
accounting for 63%. Developing Asia alone accounts for 49%

# China is the world's largest potash importer, consuming 21% of the global 
potash market. US buys 18%, and Brazil takes 15%. Apr 20-Sep 30, China 
doubled export duty on raw materials for potash, for which it supplies 
between 20-30% of global trade volume of the plant feed

# Output growth lags demand growth. Low prices in previous decades depressed 
capacity expansion

# Global production is running at or near capacity for all three of the major 
fertilizer nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate and potash

# Long time lags to develop new capacity: Building a new nitrogen complex 
takes at least 3 years. 3-4 years for a phosphate fertilizer plant and 7 
years for a potash mine

# Canada is largest producer while Russia is swing producer. Russia caps 
fertilizer exports

# FAO: Between 2007-2012, world surplus expected to increase annually by 
21.2% to reach about 11% of total demand in 2011/1. Phosphate to have 
tightest balance

# Potash Corp. share price shot up from $2 in $1990 to $200 in 2008, with 
most of the price rise occuring after 2003

# Price of nitrogen fertilizers directly related to the price of natural gas 
(methane)