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  • From: Robert Norsen <bob@bnbrew.com>
  • To: Healthy soil and sustainable growing <livingontheland@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [Livingontheland] The Peak Oil Crisis - Ethanol and Peak Food -Electric?
  • Date: Fri, 26 May 2006 16:10:02 -0700 (PDT)

 
Don't waste food to get ethanol or bio-diesel?
Electric energy for much of the daily commute ( or any travel ) could save tons of corn. petro, liquified coal, gas or diesel and such. The argument is electric power comes from coal or petro.  Doesn't have to.
 
Nuclear, wind, solar, bio, hydro are all being considered and are in use.  Could grow.  There is one giant source that can be developed  but ain't much yet -   Geo.
 
Iceland has demonstrated geo as a primary source of energy there.  Of course geo on Iceland is out on top looking at everbody on that island.
 
Here in Wa. we look at Mt St Hellen as a tourist attraction.   A good oil drilling rig going deep and horizontal into the near liquid rock could set up a power source that would be as big as any one wanted to make it. Last forever, produce electric power f rom low tech equipment.  A safe non-polluting source of energy.  There are shallow hot energy sources scattered around the USA and the World.    
Jeff  this is suggested on the LIST so we can make more ACT with all that electric power! 
You have more 'hot' energy in Alaska than most parts of the world. 
  Bob
TradingPostPaul <tradingpost@riseup.net> wrote:
(this is about the threat to food production, not to debate the merits of ethanol -
thanks to aelewis@provide.net - paul)

http://www.fcnp.com/612/peakoil.htm
The Peak Oil Crisis - Ethanol and Peak Food
By Tom Whipple

"If current trends continue much longer --crop destroying droughts,
hurricanes, increasing energy prices, and the construction of
ethanol plants-- it is obvious that food is going to become more
expensive, probably much more expensive."

"One searches...in vain...for the downside to all [the] euphoria.
As anyone who has followed the issue is well aware, there is a
major debate going on about whether or not the production of
corn-based ethanol takes more energy than it produces. If it does,
then ethanol from corn is a giant loser for everyone but the
farmer and the agribusinesses."

"Canada's National Union of Farmers [just] issued a report on the
world grain situation. The first sentence says it all: 'The world
is now eating more food than farmers grow, pushing global grain
stocks to their lowest level in 30 years'. If the first sentence
didn't get your attention, the second one says: 'Rising
population, water shortages, climate change, and growing costs of
fossil fuel-based fertilizers point to a calamitous shortfall in
the world's supplies in the near future.'" [By several
indicators, it appears that the "Green Revolution" may be over.
--AEL]

"The CEO of Cargill said he saw the production of food as the most
important task of agriculture. He pointed out that if the entire
US corn crop were used for fuel, it would only replace 20 percent
of US gasoline consumption."

"There are acceptable alternatives to putting corn into your gas
tank such as slowing down, staying home, taking a bus, or joining
a car pool. There are no substitutes for eating."

----------------------

FULL TEXT:

http://www.fcnp.com/612/peakoil.htm

PEAK OIL - Ethanol and Peak Food

May 25 - 31, 2006 VOL. XVI

The Peak Oil Crisis
Ethanol and Peak Food
By Tom Whipple

No sooner had the high-gas-prices frenzy on Capitol Hill died down
than a new obsession emerged-- ethanol. Everywhere one looked,
there was ethanol. If you live in an "over-ozoned, non-attainment"
region, then every gas pump you visit has the words "10% ethanol"
affixed. Television ads, magazines, and newspapers are filled with
pictures of corn-yellow SUVs filled with motorists happy in the
knowledge that their vehicle can run on good old American grown
E-85 (85% ethanol- 15% gasoline). Their fuel dollars are staying
right here in the USA and are not filling the coffers of foreign
potentates.

Last Sunday, the Washington Post, which is in charge of keeping
the nation's capitol up to date on all sorts of things, ran a
major "A" section story on the ethanol craze sweeping the nation.
From sea to shining sea, everyone from Microsoft's Bill Gates to
New York 's Governor Pataki was building or announcing new ethanol
plants. Rural America will soon be awash in them.

Across the farm belt everyone was getting rich making fuel from
corn. Iowa wants ethanol to replace 25 percent of the state's
gasoline consumption and General Motors pledged to build 400,000
more E85 capable cars this year. Farm state Congressmen are
smiling as the century old problem of agricultural overproduction
seems to be coming to an end. Corn prices are markedly higher.
Agribusiness profits are soaring.

One searches the Post story in vain, however, for the downside to
all this euphoria. As anyone who has followed the issue is well
aware, there is a major debate going on about whether or not the
production of corn-based ethanol takes more energy than it
produces. If it does, then ethanol from corn is a giant loser for
everyone but the farmer and the agribusinesses. There is also the
fact that while ethanol burns cleaner than gasoline, it only
produces about 70 percent of the energy and therefore gets 25-30
percent less mileage. If ethanol and gasoline are selling in the
vicinity of $3 at the pump, then, in reality, you are paying $4 a
gallon in comparison to sticking with plain old gasoline.

Finally we have the big question. As America is going through 500
million gallons of motor fuel per day, how much of this can safely
be replaced by sharing our food with our fuel tanks?

A few days after the Post story, the answer came with a thundering
crash when Canada's National Union of Farmers issued a report on
the world grain situation. The first sentence says it all: "The
world is now eating more food than farmers grow, pushing global
grain stocks to their lowest level in 30 years".

If the first sentence didn't get your attention, the second one
says: "Rising population, water shortages, climate change, and
growing costs of fossil fuel-based fertilizers point to a
calamitous shortfall in the world's supplies in the near future."

There is a lot more detail, but the conclusions are the same--
worldwide food production is on the downswing. The Canadian
analysis is confirmed by numerous reports from around the world. A
drought is affecting production in much of the world's wheat
producing belt with losses of as much as two thirds of the crop in
some areas likely.

A food vs. fuel debate has already broken out between Cargill and
Archer, Daniel, Midlands (ADM), the two giants of the US
agribusiness. While addressing a group of business writers, the
CEO of Cargill said he saw the production of food as the most
important task of agriculture. He pointed out that if the entire
US corn crop were used for fuel, it would only replace 20 percent
of US gasoline consumption.

The next day, the chairman of ADM retorted that the world has
plenty of capacity to grow food. He maintains "there is no
consumption vs. combustion debate" and that hunger and
malnutrition around the world come from "a lack of infrastructure
and a lack of capital." ADM is producing about 1 billon gallons of
ethanol a year and plans to increase this to 1.5 billion.

Overall, about 15 percent of the US corn crop is used to produce
ethanol, but there are so many corn-to-ethanol plants under
construction or planned for the near future, this could easily
increase to 40 or 50 percent of the corn crop according to an
industry consultant.

If current trends continue much longer --crop destroying droughts,
hurricanes, increasing energy prices, and the construction of
ethanol plants-- it is obvious that food is going to become more
expensive, probably much more expensive.

Current US policy, deriving from aggressive lobbying by
agribusiness and the plight of some farmers who have suffered for
decades from low agriculture prices, is to support fuel from
crops. While there are obviously short-term benefits, such as the
rapid reduction of surpluses, higher agricultural prices, and a
generally stronger farm economy, it is starting to look as if the
"short term" may be very short indeed. Increasing gasoline prices
are likely to increase the demand for ethanol and thus the
profitability of converting it to a motor fuel, thus exacerbating
the situation. At some point the government will have to become
involved and the food vs. fuel debate will begin in earnest.

This will, of course, be a short debate. There are acceptable
alternatives to putting corn into your gas tank such as slowing
down, staying home, taking a bus, or joining a car pool. There are
no substitutes for eating.

As much of the world's food production rests on oil, then a
decline in oil and natural gas production must reduce food
production. If it hasn't happened already, then at some point
there will be a peak food year when worldwide production of grain
or food calories, or whatever you want to measure, will reach a
maximum for the foreseeable future. However, unlike oil which was
bequeathed to the world in a finite amount, until recently food
was grown without benefit of fossil fuels. Thus the potential is
there for food production to resume its growth someday without
benefit of oil. This, however, is likely to happen in some other
era.

In the meantime, however, it is a safe bet we are going to be
hearing a lot more about food vs. fuel and that large-scale
food-crop-based ethanol production is likely to slip quietly away.


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