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  • From: Michael Czeiszperger <michael AT czeiszperger.org>
  • To: Internetworkers AT happyhouse.metalab.unc.edu:"http://www.ibiblio.org/internetworkers/" <internetworkers AT lists.ibiblio.org>
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  • Subject: [internetworkers] Economic growth figures rigged?
  • Date: Mon, 12 Apr 2004 13:36:31 -0400

For a while now we've been told the economy's in a recovery, but have been wondering why there isn't more job growth. The article Grossly Distorted Product in this weeks's Economist by an economist with Goldman-Sachs details why he believes the current official US economic growth figures are overestimating economic growth by almost a factor or two. There are many indicators of this, one of which is the reported figures for IT jobs outsourced to India are much lower than the figures India is reporting to have imported in the same time period.

There are many sources for the raw numbers that are used to calculate the GDP, and one interesting change since 2002 is while the statistics that are independently verifiable continue to be within historical norms, the statistics which are estimated have swung way outside historical norms. Either the fundamental basic of the economy has changed in the past two years or the current GDP estimates are wildly incorrect.

If this is true, this would explain how the current economy can have a high GDP growth while job growth is poor. The answer is the GDP growth isn't actually high.

The article is here, but unfortunately you have to be a subscriber to view it :-(

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2577317

Latest US GOV GDP Figures:
http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm

___________________________________________________________________
michael at czeiszperger dot org
Chapel Hill, NC





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