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[Jim Allman <jim AT ibang.com>]

I'm stunned that everyone is so shocked (shocked!) by this notion at 
first glance, that most everyone seems to miss the point that this is a 
tool for *prediction* of future events.

The idea (as I understand it) is that the aggregate intelligence of 
lots of people with cash on the line may be as good as, or better than, 
a cloistered group of experts. It's similar to the efficient market 
theory (EMT), that the current market value of all stocks reflects a 
wide diversity of viewpoints and knowledge--short sellers, day traders, 
institutions and individuals, hedge funds--all with a vested interest 
in making the right call.

(Note that the "casino" element, while distasteful, is a necessary 
ingredient for this to work. Then again, if I were a terrorist with a 
few million to spend, I suppose I'd spread a few bets to "short" my 
upcoming schemes.)

It's a remarkable idea, one worth investigating, and I almost think 
Bush might weather the controversy just to vindicate the magical power 
of markets.

As much as I dislike Poindexter and the TIA project, I'm actually 
impressed that these people are willing to really reach for radical 
solutions in these weird times. It seems clear that the attacks in 2001 
succeeded partly because of a collective failure of imagination on the 
part of the government, and I'm disappointed that the Dems are milking 
this for outrage, instead of saying "hmmm, tell me more".

        =jimA=