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Re: [Homestead] The snow

From: Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
Subject: Re: [Homestead] The snow
Date: Sun, 7 Feb 2010 07:47:41 -0800 (PST)

That well respected climatologist, Evelyn Browning Garris whom I have
mentioned a few times, was on the radio again about a week ago.

She was interviewed on Jan 30,2 010 about her predictions for this winter
that was made last fall (very cold and wet was the prediction), and some
updates for this spring. (financialsense.com, click on newshour to hear the
short interview.)

Main points made by Evelyn Browning Garris.

1. There is a collision of the super cold artic forces this year colliding
with tropical forces in the Atlantic and the Pacific (El Nino). "When the
two get together it is like standing in the middle of a car wreck." Wet warm
air coming up from the south is crashing into a wall of cold air from the
artic.

2. Typically during El Nino's you have cold, then a mid-winter warm, and
then a resumption of cold. Dec was cold, Jan was the mid-winter warmth, and
indications are that mid- US, eas-US and south-US are going to be cold again,
and that CA is going to get wet again.

3. Statistically Jan was very warm. This is because the Gulf Stream is
flowing very heavily, bringing a lot of tropical weather north. The Indian
Ocean unusually warm. Pacific has a large El Nino. Technically the globe is
warm because the water is warm. It is just the land that is really cold.

4. There were a number of volcanoes last year in the N. Pacific, put up a
lot off dust that reflected sunlight away from earth. Some of the eruptions
were so powerful the debris is still up there. From Spring 09 on, the artic
was not able to get the normal amount of warming and the artic air got very
very cold. With all the volcanic pollution, it affected the wind. Normally
there is a lot of wind that keeps the cold air pinned up at the artic. The
winds this year are the weakest they've been in 60 years of measurement, and
nothing is keeping the cold artic air up there, so it is coming down south.
As a result, there have been record blizzards in China (coldest in 60 years,
they have to use ice breakers to keep their northern ports open), Russia
ditto. People are dying from the cold in tropical India and Bangadesh. The
winds are really weak and are not holding the cold artic air up at the north
pole. So we are being swept with artic
winds, and in places where that air meets the tropical warm air, there are
record storms.

5. Atlantic is unusually warm.   The Atlantic is in the middle of a long
term warmth in the Atlantic. Rivers (gulf stream) have seasons that flow
heavy and then flow light, in ocean rivers it takes decades for the flows to
change from heavy to light. Starting in 1995, the gulfstream (and other
ocean currents flowing from south to north) started flowing faster. That is
why there are more hurricanes since 1995. For 2010, IF the winds blow
correctly, there could be a busy hurricane season. Last year was low
hurricane season because el Nino started in July. You need warmth and winds
and last year the wind wasn't right. With the current el Nino expected to
fade in the spring 2010, we are in position to have a very active hurricane
season 2010. The atlantic is really hot.
6. She was asked about her expectations for the 2010 US crop planting season.
She's still working on it, DATA FOR THIS SPRING IS NOT COMPLETE YET, but she
did mention the following

India gets affected by El Nino, she's expecting India to have a good to
moderate monsoon season.

For the US she is still doing the research. One of the problems [presumably
in completing her forecast] is that frequently some of the droughts come the
year after an el Nino. She does not think the US will have problems with
spring 2010 because there is still a lot of volcanic dust in the air, what
goes up eventually comes down. This typically comes down in the form of acid
rain. So at the moment she is leaning towards a VERY WET SPRING in the US
growing areas. But she will not be surprised if the US sees some real HEAT
WAVES AFFECTING CROPS IN LATE SUMMER.

From there the discussion turns to weather affecting Iran and the political
implications. (The short of it is drought and a desperate situation. Only
10% of water supply is stable, very little farmland. Rainfall patterns have
changed,  Iranians historically used to go to the Tigris, which they now have
no access to the Tiger due to borders, and US troops protecting that border.
The border has never held in history. Iranians are getting desperate, farms
are failing, people moving to cities because the farms are failing, and an
Iman who is not well educated, and he is keeping the current regime in power,
with a population getting increasingly desperate. )

----------------

Question, acid rain. Does this change the pH in the soil? And if so, do
farmers attempt to change soil pH if they believe it is an spring acid rain
year?

Another unrelated question on weed seeds...............
It seems like it has been raining here in the S. desert for much of the last
month. Daytime temps get to 50 degrees, overnight back to freezing. If weed
seeds are wet and up to 50 degrees during the day, will they attempt to
sprout and then would they get killed overnight? Is there any hope that I
will have fewer weeds sprouts to deal with when I start my spring planting???
Is there any connection? Or just wishful thinking....

I just can't believe there is so much snow just a little ways north of
me. I hope you all have power or a good alternative. We had sleet here
today but no accumulation. It has snowed quite a bit here this winter,
but we've only had dustings in the way of accumulation. Last week, we
got less than a quarter of an inch. Just south of Chattanooga, they got
over 4 inches. We were just out of range by the skin of our teeth that
time.
Everyone is saying this is the worst winter in many years. I keep
thinking that it is probably just a 'normal' winter here. We haven't
had normal in so long, perhaps we have forgotten what normal is..
I suppose for those of you up in the Blizzard ridden North will have a
different opinion, rightfully so.

Stay warm amigos!

Bev
--
Many of our greatest American thinkers, men of the caliber of Thomas
Jefferson, Henry Thoreau, Mark Twain, William James, and John Muir, have
found the forest an effective stimulus to original thought.
Bob Marshall
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________________________________

From: EarthNSky <erthnsky AT bellsouth.net>
To: Homestead List <homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org>
Sent: Sun, February 7, 2010 1:40:24 AM
Subject: [Homestead] The snow

>From cayadopi AT yahoo.com Sun Feb 7 11:55:16 2010
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Date: Sun, 7 Feb 2010 08:55:13 -0800 (PST)
From: Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
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Hughes & Skype

Experience, on the old 7000 series modem, unreliable for heavy download data
users. Allegedly it was the bird in the sky (the one that the 7000 series
points to) that was aged and failing, so they moved me to a different
satellite,,,, after several months, ditto, same thing. I just switch to a
9000 series modem and new dish a couple of days ago. Initially there were
problems and no connection. The techs were working on it. I have had good
connection over the weekend so far, however, the real test will start on
Monday, as that is when I start with massive volume of data download and
stress the system....

Technical support - since it is subcontracted out of country, you go thru the
typical routine, they only read the script. Most of the time when I've had
to call, the problems were resolved. Sometimes the first line of techs
couldn't resolve the problem, and they schedule a call with a US tech with
more experience. They call, and either they fix the problem or they schedule
a local tech to come out. When I've had equipment failure, resolution has
taken up to 9 days. You wont' get credit for no service unless you arrange
for it with the tech.

Do not buy a 7000 series modem and do not get on the old satellites. (I
think they told me there were 17?, and the local tech guy told me some of
them are scheduled to be retired).
Download speed on the 7000 was sufficient, and I'm a heavy download user.

I'm now on the 9000 series, and have about 60% more download speed. Using
speedtest.com, I have more download speed than promised to both the
recommended test site, and a site in Chicago that I'm logged into
directly..... again this will be tested more on Monday, so I'm reserving
judgment.

There is a MAX amount of data that can be downloaded in any 24 hr period, and
uploaded per day. See below

Hughes at the less expensive plan, $59.99
I suspect if you play high intense internet game on the internet, this won't
be sufficient speed. Assuming you don't.......... this plan meets most
people's needs.
At 1.28 kbps upload speed, it is NOT sufficient to use any type o VOIP
(Skype, Googletalk, YahooIM, AOL, etc. none of them) You can hear the other
party perfectly fine, but the lag time on the upload delays your voice
reaching the other person, so you interupt them, AND it loses voice "packets"
so your voice stutters and has missing words/sounds.

Alledgly at the $79.99 plan (which I'm on), this is supposed to be improved.
I think officially Hughes says no, but the local tech says he's been using
it. I'm waiting for a new router with faster speed on it to test it as my
old router is too slow to test the faster speeds.

On the old satellite, since I was dealing with live streaming data all day, I
noticed frequent signal drops. On routine surfing the web, or doing email, I
was not aware of brief drops. I do not know yet if on the new satellite with
the 9000 modem if this problem will cease, or if the problem was strictly
related to failing birds in the sky.

Other
Very thick high thunderstorm clouds will at first degrade the signal, and
then knock you off line until the cloud moves away.
Dust on the radio (it looks like a lens) pointing at the dish, will degrade
the signal if it gets too thick, and in the case of mud storms, to much dirt
on it knocks you off line.
Too much snow on the dish & lens will knock you off line, just brush it off.

The speed is definitely not as fast as cable, and just a teeny tad slower
than DSL, but most people won't notice. Only people working with live
streaming data probably notice the very brief lag time between the time the
"enter" button is pressed and the time there is a reaction at the other end.
(1.5 seconds - like I said very brief....)

Accessing hughes email via their website is insufficient. Use any other mail
program Outlook, Outlook Express, Thunderbird (free) etc.

Oh, and I would recommend installing a separate pole to mount it on, instead
of attaching it to the building, unless you know the area of the building is
super strong (no termites, no thin wood, no water damaged wood. etc) no
matter what they say. It's worth the extra money.

http://consumer.hughesnet.com/faq/fair-access-policy.cfm That's the maximum
threshold policy, and for most people the lower priced plan is sufficient.

You will exceed the 24 hr period threshold if you try to watch > 1.5 hrs
movies on line (i.e. Netflix) There is a "free" period in the middle of the
night (eastern standard time), so if you don't have TV and really really want
to watch a movie, you'd have to stay up and watch in the middle of the night.
I've done that a few times..........but it wasn't worth it, as then I was
brain dead for a couple days.

You tubes no problem. Sometimes they take a while to download if internet
traffic is heavy (although that could also have been old equipment failing,
and another thing I need to test).

I have had heavy data download during the day, plus youtubes running without
much delay in the youtube.

I'm hoping the new equipment and new satellite will resolve the hardware
related problems I've had in the past.

________________________________
From: Marie McHarry <mmcharry AT gmail.com>
To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
Sent: Sun, February 7, 2010 12:02:56 AM
Subject: Re: [Homestead] Communications

Hughes is in my area. Are their upload speeds useful with Skype. I
rarely call locally -- when I was in the ditch during our last great
blizzard I used my phone a lot -- but I do talk to a lot of people in
the US and have a good friend now in Thailand who just got on Skype.
I've got another friend in Nicaragua (she may move back to Texas soon)
who I'd love to talk to on Skype with. What's your experience with
Hughes, Leslie?

Marie
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>From Clansgian AT wmconnect.com Sun Feb 7 12:34:46 2010
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> >3. Statistically Jan was very warm.

Eh? Here in the Appalachian region January temps were below normal to
quite below normal. Average lowest high temps for the year here are from the
end of the first week in January to the middle of the third week in January
and hte expected average high is 44 degrees. During that period here the
temps were out of the 30s only one day.

Was it that warm eleswhere in January?

James</HTML>

[Homestead] The snow, EarthNSky, 02/07/2010
- Re: [Homestead] The snow, Leslie, 02/07/2010
- <Possible follow-up(s)>
- Re: [Homestead] The snow, Clansgian, 02/07/2010
- Re: [Homestead] The snow, Leslie, 02/07/2010
- Re: [Homestead] The snow, Leslie, 02/07/2010