Homestead mailing list

[Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>]

I listened to the radio interview of the weather person who's really good, 
I've heard her interviewed a number times before - quite accurate. 
 
Main topics covered in this radio interview
 
Global Warming
Global Cooling
Atlantic temps & effects on weather
Pacific temps & effects on weather
Draughts & flooding, US areas
Impact on crops in various US states
Food shortages
Economic impact
Population migration in US, China, Australia caused by weather
 
Since weather affects homesteaders, and this show covers various parts of the 
U.S. that I see people on this list live in... I've typed it up for everyone. 
  
--------- 
 
The below is close to a full transcript of the 3/7/09 radio interview of 
Evelyn Garriss (phoenetic) ..... a foremost climatologist.  Her clients 
include big Ag, major cities, major financial institutions, etc.... 
 
 
To listen to the show instead of reading (I've typed up the bulk of the 
interview below)........ go to http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html 3rd 
hour radio show 3/7/2009, save as an .mp3 type file to your computer, and 
then fast forward to 31:00 mins thru 49:00 mins, so you can skip the other 
financial discussion that most here aren't interested in.
 
 
Weather Impacts over the next 15-25 discussed include 
 
Southern US - draught
East mid-west grain belt - wetter, a bit colder, later planting dates
Florida - draught, battle for water between cities & farmers
California - draught - population migration out of Southern California
Washington & Oregon - much wetter, flooding along the coastline only
E. Midwest farm areas - flooding, colder, later planting dates
SE - draught, battles for water
Tennessee - Ohio valley area - flooding 
 
World - food shortages due to world draught
China - food shortages, huge population migration
Argentina, Australia - food shortages, draught
 
 
 ------------
 
  
 
SUBJECT:  Climate Change - Global Cooling.
JIM PUPLAVA interviews Foremost Leading Climatologist Evelyn Garriss
 
 
PUPLAVA:  "I just interviewed two authors who highly quoted your 
newsletter... and his new book is called Water, the Last Scare Resource" and 
they talked about climate change ,,,, and the fact that we are heading to 
[global] cooling."
 
GARRISS:  "Well, just recently we've been cooling, however, at this point 
depending on your scientists, we don't know whether its fluke or statistical 
anomaly, or whether its the fact that the Pacific has changed cycles, and 
when that happens, when the Pacific gets cooler, the Pacific is such a 
dominant part of the world, then the global temperatures stay cooler for 
about 30 years and then then supposedlyl the temperatures increase and the 
procees reverses..... or the fact that the sun has been very inactive.  So if 
you look at temperatures, we are down from the high temps we had in 1998 
which was during the large El nino and even if you say that that doesn't 
count, our global temperatures have been almost flat since 2000 and really 
dropped last year.  "
 
"In fact, last year you know how much they talked so much about the polar ice 
melting?  IN THE ARTIC THE ARTIC ICE CAPS GREW BY THE size of France and 
Germany."
 
"Now, if you listen to the stories, they talk about last year's melting in 
the Antartic, because they (the global warming side) don't want to talk to 
you about the Artic. Because in the Artic it was so cold that the polar cap 
grew."
 
PUPLAVA:  " I wonder if you might explain for our listeners, there are long 
weather patterns that are 500 years long, there's the 180 year crustal cycle 
that deals with volcanos, tsunamis, and earthquakes.  But there are two that 
I wonder if you could explain for our listeners so they can understand how 
this influencces temperatures -  the decatal (phoenetic) oscilator and the 
mid-decatal oscilator, one for the Pacific and one for the Atlantic."
 
GARRISS:  "OK, yes.  The Atlantic one is like the flow of a river, it ebbs 
and flows.  In the springtime it is flowing heavily, in the winter it isn't.  
  In the Atlantic Ocean there is a large current, its technical name is 
Atlantic Thermal Haley Current, but most people call it the Gulf Stream.  The 
Gulf Stream is just like a river, sometimes it flows very heavily and very 
fast and other times its very slow and very weak.  And because it is such a 
huge stream it takes a long time, it is like trying to slow down a train.  
Once it gets flowing fast, it continue to flow fast for decades, and then it 
slows down again.  And during most of the 70s, the 80s and into the mid-90s, 
the Atlantic flow, the Gulfstream flow was very slow and the Atlantic was 
cooling, and it began to speed up in 1995 and the Atlantic warmed.  One of 
the ways that you can see this is you are hearing about temperatures being 
warmer, you are seeing hurricanes flourish in the
 warm waters and since 1995 we've had an uptick in Atlantic hurricanes.  And 
this cycle, it is probably going to take another 15-25 years for the Atlantic 
to finally slow down again and for the waters to become cooler.  
 
"We can trace this cycle of warm Atlantic waters and cooler Atlantic waters 
at least since th 1700s from fishing records and we have geological records 
that this has been going on for thousands of years.  What we are now seeing 
is the Atlantic is flowing much warmer, and when Europe complains about 
warmer temperatures it is hardly surprising because the Gulfstream is 
bringing warm water to the European shores. 
 
"Now across from the Atlantic, we have another very long term current 
oscillation where the waters, there's different patterns of warm and cold 
water.  But its a lot more complex than the Atlantic.   What you have is the 
Pacific decatal oscillation.  When it is in its warm phase, the tropical 
waters are unusually warm and the waters off the coast of the Americas are 
unusually warm and the waters near Asia are cooler.  Now this was great news 
for California and the US.  Because warm waters warms the air above it.  And 
warm air holds a lot of moisture, so the westerly winds carry in moisture 
from the warm waters off the west coast and they bring a lot of snow to the 
Rockies and California is a nice wet place to live.  It is interrupted by El 
Ninos and La Ninas, but for bascially 20-30 years you get a lot of rain fall 
and a lot of snowfall in the Western United States.  
 
"Well, starting in 1998, the pattern that we had, the warm Pacific decatal 
oscillation started to change and now we have the cool Pacific decatal 
oscicllaition.  And what this means is the tropical waters are cooler and the 
waters off the coast of California and the western coasts of North and South 
America are cooler, and there is warmer water off the coast of Asia.  And 
people aren't used to this.  2006 is when this finally settled in.  And if 
you think about it, since things started to change, we've had less snowfall 
in the Sierras and the Rockies and overall drier weather.  And we've had 3 
years of dry weather and it finally permanently became cold cooler water in 
the shores off California in 2006 and California is now in its third year of 
draught.  Unfortunately for California it needs winter snowfall.  The entire 
west depends on winter snow pack for our rivers and we haven't been getting 
as much snowfall, we haven't been getting as much
 water because the waters offshore are so cool that the air above them is 
fairly cool and dry.
 
"Asia has just the other problem. They are getting very warm weather, very 
warm waters off their shores.  So when a cool continental wind hits that warm 
water, they have these explosive storms off their east coast.  Remember last 
year the Chinese new year when they had all those heavy snows and nobody 
could get home?  That was one of the results you saw of this change in the 
Pacific, where they had all that warm water and you end up with heavier snows 
in Southern China.  This is a long term cycle.  
 
"If California thinks it is dry now, the bad news is that we are just at the 
beginning of this Pacific decatal oscillation.  We are going to have cooler 
waters off the coast line and less snowfall and less rainfall, with 
interuption, for the next 25-30 years."
 
 
PUPLAVA:  "It's amazing because one of the authors I interviewed this week 
was William Houston,,,, and they are talking about whenever you get these 
larger climate cycles whether it is a 500 year cycle or these decatal cycles 
that take place, with almost 12% of the US population in California, you 
could start seeing a migration out of the state.  They are already talking 
about water rationing (in CA) as soon as next month.  Given these cycles 
right now, what parts of the United States would you be seeing plentiful 
rainful  What about Florida and the east coast, because even Texas is having 
the same problem as (California).
 
GARRISS:  "One of the things that happens when you have the Pacific cooler, 
you have these smaller cycles, El Nino, La Nina, La Nina causes draught in 
California and all along the southern tier states.  With the Pacific in its 
cool phase, it strengthens La Ninas, and very frequently the last longer, 
they may last... well right now this current La Nina, what we are having is 
two years of La Nina in a row.  And so this is bad news for the southern tier 
states and I would expect some water problems in California, the whole 
Colorado River basic, the southwest Texas.  And what happens in the Atlantic 
when the Atlantic is warm, is it usually causes drier weather in the 
southeast.  So we're actually seeing some very dry weather in the southeast.  
That is not from the Pacific.  That is from the Atlantic.  So we are having, 
by the Atlantic being warm and the Pacific being cold at the same time, we 
are having the maximum impact of dry weather on the
 southern portion of the United States.  
 
"On the other hand, if you live in the Tennessee and Ohio river valley, you 
had better learn how to dog paddle, because they are getting a lot of 
moisture.  They are getting cooler weather spring and sometimes have to plant 
later because there is too much water in their fields."
 
PUPLAVA:  "If you were looking for a place to live where there is going to be 
a lot of water because in the U.S., what areas, is Florida going to see 
draught too?"
 
GARRISS:  "During times like this, when the Atlantic is warm, Florida 
frequently does go thru periods of draught.  Also Florida has a real problem 
with balancing its growing population with its agricultural needs.  One of 
the problems we are seeing is the southeast is having increasing draught, but 
because there are so many states and they aren't used to water shortages they 
don't play well together.  And so you end up with water wars, like we 
recently saw between Georgia, Alabama and I think it was one of the 
Carolinas.  If I was looking for a good place, I probably would look in the 
mid-Atlantic states, I would look in the midwest, south of the Great Lakes.  
This is a good time for the eastern Great Lakes."
 
PUPLAVA:  "So is this good for the farm belt?"
 
GARRISS: "That is good for the eastern part of the farm belt.  Yes.  Well it 
is good for them providing the weather stays warm.  Sometimes what we are 
seeing is conditions like last year, where they had so much flooding they had 
to plant very late, and then they had to hold their breath hoping it would 
get hot enough to grow a good crop.  Well, last year it was, but what you 
find is a later planting peaking in the springtime being edgy about whether 
or not their crop will come in and then usually it does.  Usually it is 
warmer and you don't get the early freeze but it makes the crops a little 
more high risk.  It doesn't necessarily reduce the crops, but it makes it 
more high risk because you are getting wetter fields and you just can't go 
out and plant when the fields are too wet."
 
PUPLAVA:  "Now what about let's say on the west coast with what's happening 
with the Pacific Ocean's temperatures.  California will be cooler, that's 
good, the temperatures will be nicer, more pleasant, but less water.  Does 
that translate all the way up the coast to let's say Oregon and Washington?"
 
GARRISS:  "Well, here's what is ironic.  Even with the waters cooler, 
sometimes you end up with heat waves because of the cloudless skies.  So the 
waters are not as warm as they usually are but the land in the summertime the 
land heats up faster than the water anyway.  So you can have the nasty 
problem of cooler waters, hotter land, and stronger Santa Anas.  It is not a 
good condition.  You frequently have the heat increase because there are more 
Santa Ana winds. because there is more contrast between the water and the 
continental temperatures."
 
PUPLAVA:  "And what about for example in the areas like Seattle and 
VanCouver. I mean I don't think like in the last four years I've only been to 
VanCouver once where it didn't rain."
 
GARRISS:  "Ah.  Ok, yes.  I have been talking with a number of financial 
planners, county and government officials from Seattle, British Columbia, and 
I had to warn them that they can expect even more rain.  The rain won't go as 
far inland.  Instead it rains out along the coastline.  So actually if you 
are looking for wet weather and you don't want to go all the way to the 
midwest, go north.  There is going to be a lot of rainfall.  One of the odd 
things that is happening is in the cooler phase of the Pacific we end up with 
some of the high latitude waters being warm enough that typhoons when they 
move north then catch the westerly winds, and can be brought back west almost 
across the Pacific at the latitude of Oregon and Washington.  And you can 
have Oregon and Washington being hit by almost tropical rainfall which they 
are just not prepared for.  So actually we are going to be seeing heavier 
rain in the area of Seattle, the coastal regions
 of the Pacific Northwest, including British Columbia.  But once you get 
beyond the Cascades there may be some draught problems."
 
PUPLAVA: "What does this do.... One of the authors that we interviewed this 
week on their book on water, and they cite your work by the way, they were 
talking about possible food shortages related to not only energy related 
matters but also these draught conditions that you are talking about.  So, 
one of the big food baskets of the world is the midwest of the U.S.  What 
does this portend for the U.S. over the next two decades?"
 
GARRISS:  "What we are seeing this year is draught in every major food 
producing country on earth.  For the United States, the current La Nina 
expected to end in late spring but we aren't going to be seeing a reduction 
in grains as much as fruits and vegetables. 
 
"We've seen Argentina draught stricken and it's grain production has 
plummeted.  Australia is having a terrible problem.  
 
"Northern China is having what they are describing as the worst draught in 50 
years.  And their citizens went out of the cities on New Years, they went 
home, and they don't have jobs to return to.  So they are stuck out in the 
countryside in the middle of a draught.  That is totally different than the 
patterns of history.  Most of the time when you have a draught, the farmers 
leave the farms and go to the cities.  This time, the cities have sent them 
out to the draught.  And you had better believe this is going to cause a lot 
of social restlessness in China as people have no jobs and are sitting there 
on dying farms.   
 
"This year, like last year, is going to be having some food problems.  I 
don't know how much it is going to increase in demand, since economic terms, 
demand is the need and the ability to pay and with the credit crunch, people 
won't be able to pay.  But there are going to be a lot of people who need the 
food and can't grow it.

 
PUPLAVA:  "You know one of the things we have seen as you mentioned earlier, 
the Artic ice caps have grown the size of France and Germany, and they are 
not talking about that, but they have now shifted from global warming, 
because temperatures have been cooling, to climate change.  Isn't that in a 
way an oxymoron.   I mean climates have been changing for thousands of years."
 
GARRISS:  "We had a medieval warm period, we had a little ice age, now the 
little ice age is over and its getting warmer.  It is not suprising.   You 
end an ice age and temperatures do get warmer.  Climate change is standard.  
The concern should really be in the past man adjusted to climate change.  We 
need to adjust to the chaning climate.   Australia's government, for example, 
is trying to transfer farms from the southeast where they are having fires, 
to the northwest where they are having more rainfall.    We need to be 
thinking in terms of shifting with the climate because the climate shifts.  
Climate changes. "
 
PUPLAVA: "What does this say about, because in the last cycle where we say 
cooling temperatures, rain, we had this almost like population movement from 
the midwest and the east coast to the southwest, so you have huge populations 
centers today in New Mexico, Phoenix and Tuscan, AZ, southern California, 
where we have about 12% of the country's population, Vegas... all these areas 
that we have huge population centers where there isn't a lot of water.  So 
we, like my authors this week, are talking about another refugee movement.   
In other words, they are predicting that we're going to start to see a 
movement out of California because of draught conditions among other things 
and they are saying that, they cited a U.N. study, that because of these 
climate shifts, which obviously affect water, they affect food production, 
that people move to where the food and the water is. Are we looking at 
something as large as that?"
 
GARRISS:  "Yes.  The infrastructure will determine how quick different 
societies will move.  I'm sure that one of the things that will be happening 
is that like in Alburquerque, which is where I'm based, is that there are new 
regulations that strictly mandate what kind of landscape you can have in the 
city.  And if you try and have lusher landscape, a nice golf sized lawn, you 
will be a paying huge price for water.  What we're going to be seeing is some 
societies adjusting to the drier conditions, either thru rationing water as 
California is having to do now and some just having to get up and move.  A 
lot of it depends on the technology.  There are going to be some areas in 
China where some people will just have to leave.  It is not going to support 
tens of millions in and increased draught. 
 
Here in the U.S. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people left California 
because it was no longer the glorious land of opportunity as it was when they 
moved there when they were younger.  A lot of the problems are going to 
depend on how much people resist the population movement.  I don't think the 
average midwesterner is going to object if Californians moved into his area.  
He might object if it is people from Mexico and Central America flooding in.  
A lot of it depends on how willing people are for these population movements 
to take place."
 
PUPLAVA:  "Well it seems like we have a whole host of problems, and if you 
are talking about the U.N. talking about an increase in global population at 
at time when the weather cycle is turning negative for food production it 
seems like we could have another crisis on our hands, as the authors talked 
about in their book WATER.  I think we're going to find out what is really 
precious."
 
 
 



--------

“All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way. 
People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own wishes, 
and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are unwelcome. 
Political language... is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder 
respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.” ~ George 
Orwell



>From lynnw1366 AT hotmail.com  Mon Mar  9 13:32:25 2009
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Subject: Re: [Homestead] macro cycle climate change
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That was really interesting. Evelyn Garriss makes so much sense. I've long
been thinking what she said...as the climate changes, agriculture will shift
to better climate conditions. The mid-Atlantic could become the new
agricultural center of the US.  Unfortunately, it doesn't sound like my farm
will become tropical...just wetter (and it's plenty wet already).

Lynn Wigglesworth
Tioga Co. PA
----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie" <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
To: <homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org>
Sent: Monday, March 09, 2009 12:28 PM
Subject: [Homestead] macro cycle climate change


>I listened to the radio interview of the weather person who's really good,
>I've heard her interviewed a number times before - quite accurate.
>
> Main topics covered in this radio interview
>
> Global Warming
> Global Cooling
> Atlantic temps & effects on weather
> Pacific temps & effects on weather
> Draughts & flooding, US areas
> Impact on crops in various US states
> Food shortages
> Economic impact
> Population migration in US, China, Australia caused by weather
>
> Since weather affects homesteaders, and this show covers various parts of
> the U.S. that I see people on this list live in... I've typed it up for
> everyone.
>
> ---------
>
> The below is close to a full transcript of the 3/7/09 radio interview of
> Evelyn Garriss (phoenetic) ..... a foremost climatologist. Her clients
> include big Ag, major cities, major financial institutions, etc....
>
>
> To listen to the show instead of reading (I've typed up the bulk of the
> interview below)........ go to http://financialsense.com/fsn/main.html 3rd
> hour radio show 3/7/2009, save as an .mp3 type file to your computer, and
> then fast forward to 31:00 mins thru 49:00 mins, so you can skip the other
> financial discussion that most here aren't interested in.
>
>
> Weather Impacts over the next 15-25 discussed include
>
> Southern US - draught
> East mid-west grain belt - wetter, a bit colder, later planting dates
> Florida - draught, battle for water between cities & farmers
> California - draught - population migration out of Southern California
> Washington & Oregon - much wetter, flooding along the coastline only
> E. Midwest farm areas - flooding, colder, later planting dates
> SE - draught, battles for water
> Tennessee - Ohio valley area - flooding
>
> World - food shortages due to world draught
> China - food shortages, huge population migration
> Argentina, Australia - food shortages, draught
>
>
> ------------
>
>
>
> SUBJECT: Climate Change - Global Cooling.
> JIM PUPLAVA interviews Foremost Leading Climatologist Evelyn Garriss
>
>
> PUPLAVA: "I just interviewed two authors who highly quoted your
> newsletter... and his new book is called Water, the Last Scare Resource"
> and they talked about climate change ,,,, and the fact that we are heading
> to [global] cooling."
>
> GARRISS: "Well, just recently we've been cooling, however, at this point
> depending on your scientists, we don't know whether its fluke or
> statistical anomaly, or whether its the fact that the Pacific has changed
> cycles, and when that happens, when the Pacific gets cooler, the Pacific
> is such a dominant part of the world, then the global temperatures stay
> cooler for about 30 years and then then supposedlyl the temperatures
> increase and the procees reverses..... or the fact that the sun has been
> very inactive. So if you look at temperatures, we are down from the high
> temps we had in 1998 which was during the large El nino and even if you
> say that that doesn't count, our global temperatures have been almost flat
> since 2000 and really dropped last year. "
>
> "In fact, last year you know how much they talked so much about the polar
> ice melting? IN THE ARTIC THE ARTIC ICE CAPS GREW BY THE size of France
> and Germany."
>
> "Now, if you listen to the stories, they talk about last year's melting in
> the Antartic, because they (the global warming side) don't want to talk to
> you about the Artic. Because in the Artic it was so cold that the polar
> cap grew."
>
> PUPLAVA: " I wonder if you might explain for our listeners, there are long
> weather patterns that are 500 years long, there's the 180 year crustal
> cycle that deals with volcanos, tsunamis, and earthquakes. But there are
> two that I wonder if you could explain for our listeners so they can
> understand how this influencces temperatures - the decatal (phoenetic)
> oscilator and the mid-decatal oscilator, one for the Pacific and one for
> the Atlantic."
>
> GARRISS: "OK, yes. The Atlantic one is like the flow of a river, it ebbs
> and flows. In the springtime it is flowing heavily, in the winter it
> isn't. In the Atlantic Ocean there is a large current, its technical name
> is Atlantic Thermal Haley Current, but most people call it the Gulf
> Stream. The Gulf Stream is just like a river, sometimes it flows very
> heavily and very fast and other times its very slow and very weak. And
> because it is such a huge stream it takes a long time, it is like trying
> to slow down a train. Once it gets flowing fast, it continue to flow fast
> for decades, and then it slows down again. And during most of the 70s, the
> 80s and into the mid-90s, the Atlantic flow, the Gulfstream flow was very
> slow and the Atlantic was cooling, and it began to speed up in 1995 and
> the Atlantic warmed. One of the ways that you can see this is you are
> hearing about temperatures being warmer, you are seeing hurricanes
> flourish in the
> warm waters and since 1995 we've had an uptick in Atlantic hurricanes. And
> this cycle, it is probably going to take another 15-25 years for the
> Atlantic to finally slow down again and for the waters to become cooler.
>
> "We can trace this cycle of warm Atlantic waters and cooler Atlantic
> waters at least since th 1700s from fishing records and we have geological
> records that this has been going on for thousands of years. What we are
> now seeing is the Atlantic is flowing much warmer, and when Europe
> complains about warmer temperatures it is hardly surprising because the
> Gulfstream is bringing warm water to the European shores.
>
> "Now across from the Atlantic, we have another very long term current
> oscillation where the waters, there's different patterns of warm and cold
> water. But its a lot more complex than the Atlantic. What you have is the
> Pacific decatal oscillation. When it is in its warm phase, the tropical
> waters are unusually warm and the waters off the coast of the Americas are
> unusually warm and the waters near Asia are cooler. Now this was great
> news for California and the US. Because warm waters warms the air above
> it. And warm air holds a lot of moisture, so the westerly winds carry in
> moisture from the warm waters off the west coast and they bring a lot of
> snow to the Rockies and California is a nice wet place to live. It is
> interrupted by El Ninos and La Ninas, but for bascially 20-30 years you
> get a lot of rain fall and a lot of snowfall in the Western United States.
>
> "Well, starting in 1998, the pattern that we had, the warm Pacific decatal
> oscillation started to change and now we have the cool Pacific decatal
> oscicllaition. And what this means is the tropical waters are cooler and
> the waters off the coast of California and the western coasts of North and
> South America are cooler, and there is warmer water off the coast of Asia.
> And people aren't used to this. 2006 is when this finally settled in. And
> if you think about it, since things started to change, we've had less
> snowfall in the Sierras and the Rockies and overall drier weather. And
> we've had 3 years of dry weather and it finally permanently became cold
> cooler water in the shores off California in 2006 and California is now in
> its third year of draught. Unfortunately for California it needs winter
> snowfall. The entire west depends on winter snow pack for our rivers and
> we haven't been getting as much snowfall, we haven't been getting as much
> water because the waters offshore are so cool that the air above them is
> fairly cool and dry.
>
> "Asia has just the other problem. They are getting very warm weather, very
> warm waters off their shores. So when a cool continental wind hits that
> warm water, they have these explosive storms off their east coast.
> Remember last year the Chinese new year when they had all those heavy
> snows and nobody could get home? That was one of the results you saw of
> this change in the Pacific, where they had all that warm water and you end
> up with heavier snows in Southern China. This is a long term cycle.
>
> "If California thinks it is dry now, the bad news is that we are just at
> the beginning of this Pacific decatal oscillation. We are going to have
> cooler waters off the coast line and less snowfall and less rainfall, with
> interuption, for the next 25-30 years."
>
>
> PUPLAVA: "It's amazing because one of the authors I interviewed this week
> was William Houston,,,, and they are talking about whenever you get these
> larger climate cycles whether it is a 500 year cycle or these decatal
> cycles that take place, with almost 12% of the US population in
> California, you could start seeing a migration out of the state. They are
> already talking about water rationing (in CA) as soon as next month. Given
> these cycles right now, what parts of the United States would you be
> seeing plentiful rainful What about Florida and the east coast, because
> even Texas is having the same problem as (California).
>
> GARRISS: "One of the things that happens when you have the Pacific cooler,
> you have these smaller cycles, El Nino, La Nina, La Nina causes draught in
> California and all along the southern tier states. With the Pacific in its
> cool phase, it strengthens La Ninas, and very frequently the last longer,
> they may last... well right now this current La Nina, what we are having
> is two years of La Nina in a row. And so this is bad news for the southern
> tier states and I would expect some water problems in California, the
> whole Colorado River basic, the southwest Texas. And what happens in the
> Atlantic when the Atlantic is warm, is it usually causes drier weather in
> the southeast. So we're actually seeing some very dry weather in the
> southeast. That is not from the Pacific. That is from the Atlantic. So we
> are having, by the Atlantic being warm and the Pacific being cold at the
> same time, we are having the maximum impact of dry weather on the
> southern portion of the United States.
>
> "On the other hand, if you live in the Tennessee and Ohio river valley,
> you had better learn how to dog paddle, because they are getting a lot of
> moisture. They are getting cooler weather spring and sometimes have to
> plant later because there is too much water in their fields."
>
> PUPLAVA: "If you were looking for a place to live where there is going to
> be a lot of water because in the U.S., what areas, is Florida going to see
> draught too?"
>
> GARRISS: "During times like this, when the Atlantic is warm, Florida
> frequently does go thru periods of draught. Also Florida has a real
> problem with balancing its growing population with its agricultural needs.
> One of the problems we are seeing is the southeast is having increasing
> draught, but because there are so many states and they aren't used to
> water shortages they don't play well together. And so you end up with
> water wars, like we recently saw between Georgia, Alabama and I think it
> was one of the Carolinas. If I was looking for a good place, I probably
> would look in the mid-Atlantic states, I would look in the midwest, south
> of the Great Lakes. This is a good time for the eastern Great Lakes."
>
> PUPLAVA: "So is this good for the farm belt?"
>
> GARRISS: "That is good for the eastern part of the farm belt. Yes. Well it
> is good for them providing the weather stays warm. Sometimes what we are
> seeing is conditions like last year, where they had so much flooding they
> had to plant very late, and then they had to hold their breath hoping it
> would get hot enough to grow a good crop. Well, last year it was, but what
> you find is a later planting peaking in the springtime being edgy about
> whether or not their crop will come in and then usually it does. Usually
> it is warmer and you don't get the early freeze but it makes the crops a
> little more high risk. It doesn't necessarily reduce the crops, but it
> makes it more high risk because you are getting wetter fields and you just
> can't go out and plant when the fields are too wet."
>
> PUPLAVA: "Now what about let's say on the west coast with what's happening
> with the Pacific Ocean's temperatures. California will be cooler, that's
> good, the temperatures will be nicer, more pleasant, but less water. Does
> that translate all the way up the coast to let's say Oregon and
> Washington?"
>
> GARRISS: "Well, here's what is ironic. Even with the waters cooler,
> sometimes you end up with heat waves because of the cloudless skies. So
> the waters are not as warm as they usually are but the land in the
> summertime the land heats up faster than the water anyway. So you can have
> the nasty problem of cooler waters, hotter land, and stronger Santa Anas.
> It is not a good condition. You frequently have the heat increase because
> there are more Santa Ana winds. because there is more contrast between the
> water and the continental temperatures."
>
> PUPLAVA: "And what about for example in the areas like Seattle and
> VanCouver. I mean I don't think like in the last four years I've only been
> to VanCouver once where it didn't rain."
>
> GARRISS: "Ah. Ok, yes. I have been talking with a number of financial
> planners, county and government officials from Seattle, British Columbia,
> and I had to warn them that they can expect even more rain. The rain won't
> go as far inland. Instead it rains out along the coastline. So actually if
> you are looking for wet weather and you don't want to go all the way to
> the midwest, go north. There is going to be a lot of rainfall. One of the
> odd things that is happening is in the cooler phase of the Pacific we end
> up with some of the high latitude waters being warm enough that typhoons
> when they move north then catch the westerly winds, and can be brought
> back west almost across the Pacific at the latitude of Oregon and
> Washington. And you can have Oregon and Washington being hit by almost
> tropical rainfall which they are just not prepared for. So actually we are
> going to be seeing heavier rain in the area of Seattle, the coastal
> regions
> of the Pacific Northwest, including British Columbia. But once you get
> beyond the Cascades there may be some draught problems."
>
> PUPLAVA: "What does this do.... One of the authors that we interviewed
> this week on their book on water, and they cite your work by the way, they
> were talking about possible food shortages related to not only energy
> related matters but also these draught conditions that you are talking
> about. So, one of the big food baskets of the world is the midwest of the
> U.S. What does this portend for the U.S. over the next two decades?"
>
> GARRISS: "What we are seeing this year is draught in every major food
> producing country on earth. For the United States, the current La Nina
> expected to end in late spring but we aren't going to be seeing a
> reduction in grains as much as fruits and vegetables.
>
> "We've seen Argentina draught stricken and it's grain production has
> plummeted. Australia is having a terrible problem.
>
> "Northern China is having what they are describing as the worst draught in
> 50 years. And their citizens went out of the cities on New Years, they
> went home, and they don't have jobs to return to. So they are stuck out in
> the countryside in the middle of a draught. That is totally different than
> the patterns of history. Most of the time when you have a draught, the
> farmers leave the farms and go to the cities. This time, the cities have
> sent them out to the draught. And you had better believe this is going to
> cause a lot of social restlessness in China as people have no jobs and are
> sitting there on dying farms.
>
> "This year, like last year, is going to be having some food problems. I
> don't know how much it is going to increase in demand, since economic
> terms, demand is the need and the ability to pay and with the credit
> crunch, people won't be able to pay. But there are going to be a lot of
> people who need the food and can't grow it.
>
>
> PUPLAVA: "You know one of the things we have seen as you mentioned
> earlier, the Artic ice caps have grown the size of France and Germany, and
> they are not talking about that, but they have now shifted from global
> warming, because temperatures have been cooling, to climate change. Isn't
> that in a way an oxymoron. I mean climates have been changing for
> thousands of years."
>
> GARRISS: "We had a medieval warm period, we had a little ice age, now the
> little ice age is over and its getting warmer. It is not suprising. You
> end an ice age and temperatures do get warmer. Climate change is standard.
> The concern should really be in the past man adjusted to climate change.
> We need to adjust to the chaning climate. Australia's government, for
> example, is trying to transfer farms from the southeast where they are
> having fires, to the northwest where they are having more rainfall. We
> need to be thinking in terms of shifting with the climate because the
> climate shifts. Climate changes. "
>
> PUPLAVA: "What does this say about, because in the last cycle where we say
> cooling temperatures, rain, we had this almost like population movement
> from the midwest and the east coast to the southwest, so you have huge
> populations centers today in New Mexico, Phoenix and Tuscan, AZ, southern
> California, where we have about 12% of the country's population, Vegas...
> all these areas that we have huge population centers where there isn't a
> lot of water. So we, like my authors this week, are talking about another
> refugee movement. In other words, they are predicting that we're going to
> start to see a movement out of California because of draught conditions
> among other things and they are saying that, they cited a U.N. study, that
> because of these climate shifts, which obviously affect water, they affect
> food production, that people move to where the food and the water is. Are
> we looking at something as large as that?"
>
> GARRISS: "Yes. The infrastructure will determine how quick different
> societies will move. I'm sure that one of the things that will be
> happening is that like in Alburquerque, which is where I'm based, is that
> there are new regulations that strictly mandate what kind of landscape you
> can have in the city. And if you try and have lusher landscape, a nice
> golf sized lawn, you will be a paying huge price for water. What we're
> going to be seeing is some societies adjusting to the drier conditions,
> either thru rationing water as California is having to do now and some
> just having to get up and move. A lot of it depends on the technology.
> There are going to be some areas in China where some people will just have
> to leave. It is not going to support tens of millions in and increased
> draught.
>
> Here in the U.S. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people left
> California because it was no longer the glorious land of opportunity as it
> was when they moved there when they were younger. A lot of the problems
> are going to depend on how much people resist the population movement. I
> don't think the average midwesterner is going to object if Californians
> moved into his area. He might object if it is people from Mexico and
> Central America flooding in. A lot of it depends on how willing people are
> for these population movements to take place."
>
> PUPLAVA: "Well it seems like we have a whole host of problems, and if you
> are talking about the U.N. talking about an increase in global population
> at at time when the weather cycle is turning negative for food production
> it seems like we could have another crisis on our hands, as the authors
> talked about in their book WATER. I think we're going to find out what is
> really precious."
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --------
>
> “All political thinking for years past has been vitiated in the same way.
> People can foresee the future only when it coincides with their own
> wishes, and the most grossly obvious facts can be ignored when they are
> unwelcome. Political language... is designed to make lies sound truthful
> and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure
> wind.” ~ George Orwell
>
>
>
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