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[bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>]

Prechter is strictly Elliot Wave.  If you believe entirely in the basis 
behind Elliot Wave trading and predicting, then he is your man.  I have read 
his comments for years and I find certain validities in Elliot Wave results, 
but I believe there are many variables other than predictable cycles for 
which to watch.  Inflation seems certain; some form of hyper-inflation seem 
probable-- but who knows how long it will take, or the degree of the damage?

------------------------------------------------------------------------


--- On Sun, 1/11/09, Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com> wrote:

> From: Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> Subject: [Homestead] depression - hyperinflation
> To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Sunday, January 11, 2009, 10:31 AM
> Skip this email if not interested in the macro economic
> stuff....
>  
> Bob, we've been having a bit of conversation about
> depression - hyperinflation....
>  
> Yesterday, I got a phone call from a city friend asking me
> to look something up in one of my books.  A book I read
> about 4-5 years ago (Conquer the Crash/ Prechter).
>  
> I decided to speed read it again - some highlights:
>  
> Prechter thought the depression was going to occurr
> starting in 2003 - but also thought that there could be one
> more blow off top in the making to complete a Wave 5
> SuperCycle.
> Other than he really leaned towards it starting in the 2003
> timeframe - 95% + of everything else in his book is already
> happening (2008).
>  
> He accurately identified what steps the Treasury and Fed
> would take as the real estate/credit bubbles popped -
> including the massive money printing and bail-outs,
> foreclosures etc.
>  
> Depression - asset values across the board go down,
> including metals.
>  
> There have been 3 depressions in the US, each lasting
> approximately 3 years (I'm starting the clock ticking
> 2009 as a depression era beginning FYI)
>  
> Manias - all manias wind up with prices lower than where
> they start.  
>  
> Stocks - he has them going below the 1929 low (wave 4 of
> the super cycle).  Seems hard to believe... 
>  
> Real Estate also in a mania - but he didn't identify
> where the beginning of the mania is.
>  
> Real Estate - lost up to 90% of price in the 1930s
> depression (confirmed by my dad/grandfather).
>  
> Metals - also depressed - but then lead the way out.
>  
> Commodities 90% losses until recovery.
>  
> He also talks about US Treasuries and one method the US
> Gov't will default on them - by changing the rules out
> of the blue and saying one day that the short term notes
> due, can't be cashed in for 10 years.... i.e. an
> effective default.  He also believes the gov't will
> seize the pension plans in a similar manner.  (Many others
> also believe this.)
>  
>  
> He talks about Japan - Japan crashed economicall in the
> 1990s, BUT because the rest of the world was still strong,
> Japan was able to trade with trading partners and not crash
> as bad as it could/'should have been.
>  
> Current crash - he predicted back in 2002 (or ealier) that
> this deflationary crash would be different as it would
> involve multiple countries, and that there would be no
> strong trading partner to pull the deflationary countries
> out.  (Which contrasts with Schiff's video you linked
> today - as Schiff implies that Asia will be the strong
> trading partner).  (It is true that a number of countries
> are going thru a recession/depression now.)
>  
> Prechter says after the depression phase, that
> hyperinflation is imminent and will be part of the next
> supercycle.
>  
> Prechter also says that we will really be in a bear market
> for 100 years.... with a number of market ups/downs,
> including a hyperinflation phase. with hyperinflations
> always ending in a currency collapse and depression.  He
> also noted that people will resort to using other things as
> a "currency" (barter, silver/gold coin, etc) for
> the things they need (i.e. cannot produce themselves), as
> they always have resorted to in history when government has
> destroyed the currency.  
>  
> He also talks about food and supply shortages, personal
> safety (i.e. weapons, being outside of cities, etc)
>  
> I am much simplifying Prechter's work here, btw..
>  
> ---------------------------------
>  
> So my take now is..........
>  
> If history repeats, the depression phase of 3 years is
> another thing that collides into the 2012 time frame.
>  
> 1) The defaulting mortages should have pretty much all gone
> thru the legal process and the properties repossesd/owned by
> the banks by then.
>  
> 2) That clears the way for lenders to start lending again
> with all the virtually free UST's they are currently
> acquiring via the Pull Peddler's bail-out money.  The
> bail out money represents trillions,,, not only in bail-outs
> but in the Fed taking on all the toxic waste onto their
> books (bad mortgages, bad car loans etc.)
>  
> 3) Obama's plan calls for X number of job creation over
> the next 2 years.  That will be a slowing increasing number
> of jobs, as it will take a while for government bids to go
> out, designers & engineers to be determined, designs to
> be made/approved, and eventually contractor bids awarded,
> and eventually worker bees hired........... so the way I see
> it that is when the economy starts the
> false "recovery" and the deployment of the
> hyperinflation dollars begins.
>  
> 4)  At that point, the masses will be conned into
> believing that the Obama plan worked, as we work back
> towards full employment.... Then as hyperinflation gets
> underway, more and more people have to work to keep up with
> rising food & goods prices.... and people won't see
> at first the horrors of hyperinflation.... that side that
> Schiff predicts... hyperinflation, collapse of the dollar,
> food & supply shortages and on and on etc.
>  
>  
> As far as I'm concerned the hyperinflation phase has
> never been a matter of IF, but a matter of WHEN.  So
> I've been looking for little hidden puzzle pieces to the
> when part.  Maybe some of the above are clues towards that.
>  
>  
> (And I didn't even mention supply destruction about
> oil.....which is another puzzle piece that can't be
> excluded.)
>  
>  
> 
> 
>       
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