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[Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>]

I know oil prices have come down recently and some may think there is no 
crisis.
 
A lot of experts disagree - including the IEA - International Energy Agency.
 
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/allison/2008/1222.html
 
 
 
It is quite likely that "Cantarell" will be the next bomb to drop on the U.S. 
(after the sub-primes, and derivatives and and and...)
 
Cantarell is a huge oil field in Mexico, on which the US depends on for much 
of it's imports.  Until recently, it was the world's 2nd largest oil field.
 
"As of May 2005, Cantarell was producing 2.2 million barrels of oil per day 
(65% of total Mexican production). Today the figure is roughly 900,000 
barrels per day. The most troubling aspect is that the decline rate is 
accelerating, estimated at 2.5% per month currently, or 30% 
annually....According to Matt Simmons, by the end of 2009, Mexico will no 
longer be an oil exporter."
 
 
Another recent and STUNNING development is that the Director of the IEA, 
Tanaka, and staff, have been making rounds around the world talking to packed 
audiences explaining that basically is it "game over" - the era of cheap oil 
is over.  Based on the most optimistic assumptions, the IEA can make from 798 
oil fields is that the current crude oil producion of 73mbd (million barrels 
a day) will be down to 25mbd by 2030, BUT only if we spend a fortune nto 
mitigate natural decline rates.  If we don't spend it, worldwide production 
will be down to 9mbd by the year 2030.
 
The IEA further explains that 14% of the total current supply comes from the 
10 largest fields, another 4.5% from the next 10 largegst, and the age of 
those field are 59 years old.  42% of current supply comes from 70,000 oil 
fields that on average produce less than 400 barrels per day.
 
IEA claims that 64mbd needs to be added to current production to keep up with 
demand to 2030 (i.e. 6 saudi arabias).  IEA says this is impossible.  
 
IEA has made a significant leap forward leaving their computer models and 
looking at reality.  They are saying the world is in serious trouble.  They 
are telling the world we have a fire in the theatre, and it is time to 
evacuate.
 
Oil drillers have gone down so deep looking for oil they are close to 
piercing the magma, if they fear they will create a volcano.  Public has NO 
IDEA how complicated this drilling discovery process is, and how extensive it 
really has been.
 
The oil industry is in a panic over current prices.  They are downsizing 
staff, 20% of Rigs are shut down.  In 6 months estimated we will lose 30% of 
our oil supply.  Experts expect oil prices to rise above $147 like a hot 
knife going thru butter.  Simmonds believes that at the current rate of 
production reduction there are only weeks left before we've shot ourselves in 
the knee cap - I think he was trying to say that it takes time to get rigs 
back into place and start pumping again.
 
I don't watch TV much, and I don't get the newspaper --- IS MAINSTREAM MEDIA 
TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT OIL PRODUCTION HAS BEEN DEPLETING 9.1% THIS YEAR 
SO FAR (as of 2 months ago)?  I sure haven't heard mention of this on local 
news when I catch it from time to time.  Anyone else?
 

If Obama is smart, he will throw everything he can at building alternative 
energy sources - wind/solar farms, instead of roads.... roads could become 
useless and divert paper money they are going to spend anyway in a direction 
that will just hasten the energy crisis [building roads & bridges & sewer 
takes lots of energy...]  (Either Simmonds or some others in an energy 
roundtable stated that there are a few in current government who actually 
understand the seriousness of the problem, and they are hoping that they get 
to bend Obama's ear during this transition period where Obama gets briefed by 
people between election and swearing in).
 
 
The hardest thing to understand about oil price swings has to do with traders 
all piling in on the same side of a trade, and then getting caught, with the 
pendulum swinging too far the other way.  There are some in the public now 
blaming the mortgage crisis on high oil prices.  This is so far off base it 
isn't funny.
 
 
What does this mean for this group - us ?
 
If Simmonds is anywhere close being right on the time frame (2009-2010) that 
Mexico will find itself having to choose between exporting oil for others or 
keeping it for the Mexican, and Mexico chooses to stop exporting due to 
production rapidly falling off .... the US is in for a very very very serious 
problem sooner rather than later..
 
Make a list of everything that you do or use that depends on oil and be ready.
 
Plastic, fertilizers, gas, transportation, food at the grocery, food storage, 
and everything on a store shelf is likely to be impacted.
 
 
 
In all the time I've been reading about oil from experts in the field I have 
not heard one say there is no problem.  I have heard one minister who wrote a 
book about this, stating that there is one more big field up in AK that has 
not been tapped into, and US Big Oil hush hushed it back in the 60's.  Maybe 
the whole environmental thing up there was started as a smoke screen by Big 
Oil to keep that alleged field in their back pocket for when the rest of the 
world runs out.... Maybe that is just wishful thinking :-)
 
 



>From erthnsky AT bellsouth.net  Tue Dec 23 01:03:28 2008
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Subject: [Homestead] Dr. Dr. Give me some news....
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Evening y'all

First, before I forget again, I have to correct something I wrote the
other day.  I said "Last night they confirmed I have MRSA"  I meant
confirmed my own suspicions, but I did not write that and implied a fact
not in evidence.  The ER doc said that it was MRSA in his opinion.  He
also said my 'kidney infection' was probably MRSA related since I had
had no prior symptoms before the fever and pain...the paper work and
diagnosis sheet I got to take home also says MRSA, however, to confirm
it, you have to culture it, and it was not cultured at the ER...the ER
doc just might be full of it...ok so anyway...
First appointment today was the ophthalmologist...good news there-my
pressures are at the high end of normal..yeah.. I got a new prescription
for glasses, but the doc is an a-hole and was definitely in his a-hole
mood today.  He was such a PITA that I am considering filing a report
against him.  Long story short, I will have to pay an optometrist to
make the measurements of my eyes that are needed to get my glasses via
mail, as the one today refused to do it saying he is treating me for
this and this and this, not so that I can get cheap glasses from a
company he has never heard of.  And that was just the beginning.

Finally, I got my follow up with the PCP, whom I love.  He is very
thorough, very patient, and has helped me a lot over the years, and yes,
he is also open to alternatives.
He spent about 20 minutes reading my history and labwork for the last 3
years, and he thinks that I don't have a kidney infection at all.  He
thinks I passed a small stone, because I recovered so quickly...10 hours
later I was fine-urine color almost back to normal.  He saw the first
spider bite in his office last summer, and he says that he is not
convinced that 3 or 4 boils/bites in 6 months means MRSA, especially
since the first bite healed with 2 rounds of antibiotics, so he also
lanced the boil and took a sample to culture.  Three days, but of
course, with the holidays, who knows when... I hope he is right and that
this is just plain staph that will be undone by the antibiotics I am
already on now and hopefully not MRSA.  If it is MRSA, he will put me on
another antibiotic and then after that, IV antibiotics if needed.   He
is also starting up an entire battery of testing to try to figure out
what is going on with my liver.  He wanted to repeat testing done at the
ER just to make sure the medicine is working.  It works for me.  I
talked to him about getting off Enbrel, and he asked if I had mentioned
it to my rheumie...no...he suggested that when I see her on 1/6 that I
discuss it.  He agreed that perhaps I have been on the meds too long,
and wanted me to be sure and discuss it with her.  He also said that if
my bilirubin and enzymes were still high on the blood they took today,
that that would warrant him calling her for consultation and I would be
seeing her sooner than 1/6.  I then discussed baseline testing and
fitness evals...he ordered bloodwork for cholesterol, triglycerides and
all of that kind of stuff, plus a mammogram, too.  Since my heart is
doing good, he said shoot for target of 140 bpm, and stick with no or
very very low impact exercise and to be careful with the weights.  I
told him that I wanted to get off some of the meds I was on, a few of
which he had prescribed, and he understood and actually agreed that I
should try this this and this, blah blah blah...he did not suggest an
alternative that I had not heard of, but I was glad to have a chance to
talk to him.  That is 3 less prescriptions I have to refill now.
As a side note, I got my pedometer and chin up bar today...(and also my
rice seeds!!!) so I can carefully and objectively record my progress
next year.  I did not think I would like a pedometer, but I borrowed my
friends for a couple of  weeks last summer and I was hooked.  For me, it
spurs me on to do more...8000, I can do 9000, 10000 is almost
12000<g>...I found myself getting up and walking to someone's office
instead of calling on the phone, just to run the stairs and add steps on
the ped.  It a good motivational tool that costs about $5.  Mine was $8
but it's got a calorie counter, a stopwatch and some other stuff on it.
  I figured the stopwatch would be good for taking my pulse.
I can't even do one chin up or pull up, but I did put the bar together
practically blind<G>, if that counts.
Except for dealing with the a-hole, it was all pretty good news...
I am really starting to get excited about getting healthy.
I'm sharing a lot of personal stuff with you guys in hopes that maybe
some of you will also take the time and spent the money on yourself.
Even if you don't like western med, at least find someone to do some
screening bloodwork so you will have an objective way to measure whether
or not all that oatmeal you are eating is lowering your cholesterol or
if you just feel better because you are getting more fiber.  If you know
the facts, you can adjust what you need to adjust on your own.

Bev



--
The true significance of Sacajawea's involvement in the Lewis & Clark
expedition is that it was the first documented trip in history where men
asked a woman for directions and followed them, allowing them to arrive
at their destination.