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[bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>]

What the author said is factually accurate.  He was talking about the 
'bubble', not the entire history of oil; just as someone might talk about the 
real estate bubble, not the entire history of real estate value.

You say " recessions invariably result in very low oil prices".  My memory of 
the Carter years recession is that oil prices climbed. I don't know how to 
explain my memory in economic terms, but we had high unemployment, inflation, 
and I believe we did have the 2 consequetive quarterss of negative gdp 
growth.  Even if not, we certainly fit the general definitions of a 
recession, during that period of time .  What we didn't have was deflation.

I don't think the author is making a point about 'peak oil' or anything like 
that.  I think he is just saying oil became way too expensive, way too fast.  
Just like real estate and oil are both finite resources; they can still be, 
obviously, overpriced for any moment in time .  In this environment, they 
have both proven to be much overpriced, thus the term 'bubble' 
..........bobford


--- On Sat, 10/11/08, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com <Clansgian AT wmconnect.com> wrote:

> From: Clansgian AT wmconnect.com <Clansgian AT wmconnect.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] Oil bubble burst
> To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Saturday, October 11, 2008, 9:50 AM
> The article's author needs to take a more careful look
> at the history of oil 
> prices.  Just a few months before 9-11, oil had been
> trading at around $20 a 
> barrel.  Some months after 9-11 oil fluxuated between $25
> and $30.   In 2006 
> the big news was that oil had slowly risen to *nearly* $40
> a barrel.  The 
> concern was that there had never been a time in US history
> where oil had been more 
> than $40 a barrel without it causing a recession.
> 
> While high oil prices help bring on recessions,  recessions
> invariably result 
> in very low oil prices.  And now it has dropped to a mere 
> $79. It's the old 
> "hurray, I'm a llama again" bit.
> 
> OPEC is determined to keep oil at $100 in the long term.
> They are meeting 
> soon to that effect.
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