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["Don Bowen" <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>]

> > > Quite so. The human condition is known. That is why I have so  often 
> > > said that meaningful change will not happen until the pain  level is 
> > > high.
> >
> > That may well be true but what I an starting to get a handle on is  the 
> > direction of change.
>
> How do you perceive that to be headed? And to what do you attribute  the 
> motivation?

What direction are we headed?  It is confused.  Oil is running out.  Hubbard 
the shell oil geologist in the 50s predicted that the US would peak sometime 
in the early 70s and we did in 1973.  A Saudi Oil geologist in the 90s 
looked at what countries were telling about their reserves, what we were 
finding world wide, and what is being pumped and came up with a peak of 
around 85 million barrels sometime in the first decade of the 21 century. 
Looking at the EIA site at 
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html it appears we hit 
that sometime in the last three years.  Oil industry spokespeople are 
starting to say that we will peak at 100 million barrels a day but those may 
be wildly optimistic.  Major fields are declining in Russia and Mexico. 
Right now we are not finding as much oil as we are using in a year and what 
we are finding is very expensive, consider drilling for oil 20,000 feet deep 
under 7000 feet of water in a hurricane spawning ground.  Several oil 
producing countries have expressed a desire to keep the oil in the ground 
for their own future.

Prices are being driven by not only scarcity but by the realization that the 
US as an oil addicted nation will lose financially as we try to adopt to the 
new reality.  You can see part of that as the dollar slides.  Other prices 
factors are speculators doing futures bidding, betting that prices will only 
rise and rise significantly.  There is no hoarding as stocks are at or below 
normal levels as finished good producers hope that there will be price 
declines in the future and do not want to get too extended on expensive 
future oil.

That is the background.  The future is very confusing.  Those with oil (us) 
will complain and be forced to change because of increasing prices.  Those 
who want to be like us and have unlimited oil will be upset because we had 
it and they want it.  It will be a biding war for not only the finished 
product but the producers.  Some third world countries that may be gaining 
on us may slide back as the cost of transportation and the declining dollar 
makes their goods more expensive.  What that means is hard to say.

Here it is also murky.  We oil consumers will cut back some but how much? 
Buying a fuel sipper car and trading in your SUV may save some fuel but it 
will be slow as consumers take time to turn over cars that may not have much 
trade in value.  It takes time to insulate houses or build new and better 
insulated but as fuel costs rise it becomes more difficult to afford the 
changes.  Businesses can cut back but here again it takes time and business 
decisions are based more on the next couple of years rather than the long 
term.  If a business is faced with a long term decision of a plant it is 
just as likely to locate in some place like Vietnam rather than Kokomo.

Individuals are caught in the middle and that middle will become worse as 
time goes on.  The wealthy will not be affected as they can weather most 
things.  The poor will be worse off by the year as the oil addicted economy 
tries to protect itself at the expense of the least powerful.  As oil gets 
short we will see government agencies making sure they have theirs.   Local 
police and fire will strain budgets and demand a greater share and 
governments will give in under pressure of the voters who will start to be 
more concerned about security.  Streets may not get swept but there will be 
patrol cars.  Suburbia may become a thing of the past as remote developments 
can only be reached by oil fueled vehicles and electric powered rail can not 
be economically pushed into those areas.

Military will also demand all they want under the same guise.  Military 
budgets will grow to keep its planes and trucks fueled while they convince 
us that they need to fight over the declining oil supply.

This is sort of where my thoughts are headed.  Time span?  That part I am 
not sure of.  We have hit peak and oil prices are climbing.  They will go 
higher but they also may drop but not back to the levels of even a few years 
ago.  This up and down movement will be related to the ups and downs of the 
economy rather than the availability of oil.  As the economy slows oil 
demand will slacken, prices may fall but as the economy heats up prices will 
rise again.  As a guess I think we have until around 2020 before things 
change in an unrecognizable way.  It may be a very painful change is we do 
not address the problems now or it could be a very uncomfortable change if 
we make the right decisions starting now.  My bet is on the first 
possibility as no one on the current presidential hustling is talking about 
it.  Instead they talk of flag pins and loud mouth preachers.

Don Bowen      KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html