Homestead mailing list

[Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>]

On Jan 29, 2008, at 10:01 AM, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com wrote:

> That's the point, Gene.  He didn't make a mistake.  Not even a  m i  
> s t a k e
> nor even a   m  i  s  t  a  k  e.  He deliberately published  
> misinformation. . . . They're still
> doing it.

Well, that is at minimum unforgivable.

> It's much like the NAR reports of the past two and half years.  All  
> the
> analysis from the country's foremost experts (them) shows that  
> housing prices,
> sales, and starts  will show a sharp upturn next quarter (er, next  
> quarter, ok
> then, next quarter ... etc).  It's a great time to buy!!

Four things here:
1-Because of the multiple listing services that report to them, they  
have more complete sales information than any other source.
2-They are in the business of promoting Realtors. Quite right. Read  
the early history of how real estate transactions happened and you  
will be impressed with the good that NAR has done. (I momentarily  
forget the original name.)
3-Any forecaster who works for pay will be biased to serve his  
employer. Depending on his education, experience and his core values  
he may or may not do a sound job of forecasting.
4-As you have noted, numbers don't lie. We rely on them. We verify as  
we can but we must either accept them or go elsewhere. If the  
elsewhere does not have complete numbers we may as well flip a coin.

Btb, I wrote the previous post just before bedtime, after trying out  
Trader Joe's 2007 Vintage Ale. As I was tossing out the bottles this  
morning I read that the alcohol content is nine percent. So if any of  
my words were unusually wobbly, that's why. That's my story and I am  
sticking to it.