Homestead mailing list

[Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>]

On Jan 28, 2008, at 1:40 PM, Clansgian AT wmconnect.com wrote:

> (Gene)
> > > Choose your expert.
>
> Or rather, I'd say, BE your expert.

Oh, lord no, you will be hounded to extinction. If you think you are,  
reveal it to no person.

>  Information is there enough to form
> one's own conclusion and one needn't rely blindly on experts. (I  
> know, Gene, you
> don't mean 'blindly')  The problem with "experts" is that if you  
> have a dog in
> a certain fight, you can always find and expert who will agree with  
> you and
> make you feel better about things, no matter how bad their track  
> record.

But, you see, that is part of the horror; an expert cannot make a  
mistake; if they do, they lose their title.
> (Don)
> > > Like Global Warming, there are many writing from ignorance, self  
> > > serving
> > > positions, attempting to confuse rather than inform.  You have to  
> > > search
> > > out those who are well informed and intend to inform.  They are  
> > > there but
> > > need a little searching out.
>
> There are a couple more measures I'd throw in additionally:
>
> 1) What's the track record of the expert?  When Daniel Yergin  
> predicted that
> in 2005 oil would drop to $32/barrel and stay there for a decade and  
> even
> today he is ridiculed by reporting that oil currently sells for  
> about 3 Yergins,
> he is not a expert whose predicitions are to be taken seriously.

See? He was an expert. He foolishly made a prediction, which experts  
are expected, nay, demanded to do to retain their title. And so he  
did. And he made a m i s t a k e. Bury the bloke.
> 2) The expert's opinion should be tempered with logic and reality.

And do you teach your little ones of the Tooth Fairy? Sub-gods? Wise  
kings?