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[Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>]

I read "Deep Economy" by Bill McKibben a couple of weeks ago.  As Gene said 
I tend to devour books so I need a bit of time to think about them.  The 
book is not a book on economics but a book on the economy.  The two have a 
loose relationship, the economy is your day to day activities, economics is 
an attempt to explain it all as if it were a scientific process.

In "Deep Economy" McKibben attempts to lay out what sort of economy we 
could be facing in a future no longer fueled by cheep energy.  He starts 
out by pointing out that no system can expand forever.  As Edward Abbey 
observes, uncontrolled growth is a cancer.  Always before we have lived in 
a world where more is better.  Now we have moved to a world where more has 
separated itself a long ways from more.

As an example consider a very poor farmer.  A farmer who can only afford 
one blanket.  Now if that farmer can improve his lot to where he can buy a 
second blanket, more is defiantly better.  Now consider ourselves.  We have 
sufficient blankets to keep us warm in the coldest winters so more blankets 
is not better.  You can expand this to anything, does getting a bigger TV 
translate to better?  A 3000 sq. ft. house better than 1000?

Politicians now promise more and more as if it were better but since more 
and better are now widely separated, it is getting more difficult to keep 
those promises.  He points out that the standard of living for the 4000 
years leading to the mid 1800s increased about 100% but has increased many 
times since then, driven by the industrial revolution and fueled by cheap 
oil.  We cannot grow at those rates for many reasons, not the least of 
which is that we are running out of resources.  There is not enough 
available iron to give the Chinese or Indians the level of automobile 
ownership we in the US have.  There are many examples, there is not enough 
wheat in the world for the Chinese double their beer consumption.

In the book McKibben extends this to a future of oil shortages.  In that 
future growth has slowed or even stopped.  Our national transportation 
network can no longer deliver food the 1500 miles we do now so there will 
be a rise of local producers.  Pesticides and fertilizers will also be 
limited as will fuel to power large farm machinery so those local farms 
will be smaller to make them easier for a single family to work them.  For 
some this will be a giant step backwards but it will be unavoidable and we 
will have to make accomodations.


Don Bowen              Awl Knotted Up                       KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.  
> From becida AT comcast.net  Thu May 10 00:41:36 2007
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At  5/9/2007 09:04 PM,Don Bowen wrote:
> IThere are many examples, there is not enough
> wheat in the world for the Chinese double their beer consumption.

This is some kind of statement!

I can get an idea of the amount of beer the Chinese drink from this site.
http://www.kirin.co.jp/english/ir/news_release051215_1.html

>>Kirin Research Institute of Drinking and Lifestyle - Report Vol. 29 -
Beer Consumption in Major Countries in 2004 <<

Now I guess I have to find out how much wheat is used to make a given 
amount of beer..

I'll have to remember to look for that tomorrow, it's bed time now.



Rob
becida AT comcast.net