Skip to Content.
Sympa Menu

homestead - Re: [Homestead] Perfect Storm

homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org

Subject: Homestead mailing list

List archive

Chronological Thread  
  • From: Gene GeRue <genegerue AT ruralize.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Perfect Storm
  • Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 08:58:18 -0700

Present economic policies seem foolish to me. I know little of high-level finance. I do know real estate so I will only comment on that. The article included this:

The United States weathered a sharp decline in the stock market just a few years ago, in large part because of the housing market's strength. But a sharp rise in interest rates would literally hit home. For new home buyers, or for people with adjustable rate mortgages, 200 extra basis points of interest on a $400,000 mortgage would represent $8,000 a year in extra payments. If mortgage rates were to rise sharply, housing prices would level off and perhaps do the unthinkable: fall.

If you would understand housing prices, study an area of rising population--Southern California--and an area of declining or wavering population--South Dakota and Iowa come to mind. People need a place to live and they will pay whatever it takes to put a roof over their families.

Southern California has in fact experienced falling real estate prices. But over the years, on a much steadier course than any Wall Street stock, real estate prices have risen faster than wages and faster than inflation.

As for a "sharp rise in interest rates," while possible, the likelihood is slim. I know that Alan Greenspan is keenly aware of the value to the economy of consumers using home equities for general purchases because the broker of our company, Realty Executives, was among the Realtors quizzed closely by Greenspan on just that subject.

Interest rates are most closely tied to the bond market, not the overnight Fed rate. Investors choose income-producing securities based on total return and security. Earlier in the article was the statement, "Throw in rising interest rates, warnings of a housing bubble and the potential for higher inflation and slower growth (a k a stagflation) - and you can understand why some economic analysts may be plumbing the New Testament for inspiration."

The article author is here not reporting news; he is attempting to create news with hyperbole. Interest rates are in fact not rising. They have been mostly around or below six percent for the last three or four years. Slight rises have been followed by slight decreases. I expect rates to rise this year to less than seven percent, still a historically wonderful mortgage interest rate. And as I have noted before, the "housing bubble" is mostly a fabrication of writers and speech makers who reflect the growing media fixation on extremism, just one of the reasons why journalists are held in lower regard than members of the DC Whorehouse.

Yes, last year's over-50 percent appreciation in Las Vegas is unsupportable and that insane place will experience price adjustment. In most areas of the US, housing prices are doing what they have always done: reflecting supply and demand. FWIW I have sold houses with sixteen and eighteen percent interest loans.

Resist strongly those who would manipulate your brain with movie-title leads. There is no economic perfect storm abrewing. The sky is not falling. Conduct your personal financial affairs prudently. Do not look to our over-hyped leaders for direction.

Buy a house. If you have a house, buy land. Pay for the land with city jobs, prepare your family for a rural lifestyle, accumulate tools and skills. When the land is free of debt sell the city house and go make a good life.






Archive powered by MHonArc 2.6.24.

Top of Page