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["Toni Hawryluk" <tonihawr AT msn.com>]

..no Kyoto accord for the U.S. though ....



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6433717/

 

Study: Arctic warming threatens people, wildlife

Eight-nation report faults fossil fuels; U.S. in wait-and-see mode

Subhankar Banerjee

Reuters contributed to this report.

 

Photo deleted for sending : A polar bear makes its way across a frozen 
stretch of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. A report released 
Monday warns warmer Arctic temperatures could wipe out polar bears by 2100.

 

MSNBC staff and news service reports

Updated: 2:56 p.m. ET Nov. 8, 2004

OSLO, Norway - Global warming is heating the Arctic almost twice as fast as 
the rest of the planet in a thaw that threatens the livelihoods of millions 
of people and could wipe out polar bears by 2100, according to an 
eight-nation report released on Monday.

The report, the work of more than 250 scientists and the biggest survey to 
date of the Arctic climate, found that the accelerating melt could point to 
wider disruptions from a build-up of human emissions of heat-trapping gases 
in the earth's atmosphere.

The "Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much larger changes are 
projected," according to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), which 
was commissioned by the Arctic Council and funded by the United States, 
Canada, Russia, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Norway and Finland.

The report projects that temperatures in the Arctic will rise by 8 to 14 
degrees Fahrenheit in the next 100 years. If temperatures then stayed stable, 
the Greenland icecap would melt altogether in 1,000 years and raise global 
sea levels by about 23 feet.

Possible benefits like more productive fisheries, easier access to oil and 
gas deposits or trans-Arctic shipping routes would be outweighed by threats 
to indigenous peoples and the habitats of animals and plants.

Sea ice around the North Pole, for instance, could almost disappear in summer 
by the end of the century, it said. The extent of the ice has already shrunk 
by 15-20 percent in the past 30 years.

"Polar bears are unlikely to survive as a species if there is an almost 
complete loss of summer sea-ice cover," the report said. On land, creatures 
like lemmings, caribou, reindeer or snowy owls are being forced north into a 
narrower range.

Fossil fuels blamed
The report mainly blames the melt on gases from fossil fuels burned in cars, 
factories and power plants. The Arctic warms faster than the global average 
because dark ground and water, once exposed, traps more heat than reflective 
snow and ice.

"Changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and 
societal significance of global warming," it said.

The thaw will have a global impact - melting of glaciers will raise global 
sea levels by about 4 inches by the end of the century.

Many of the four million people in the Arctic are already affected. Buildings 
from Russia to Canada have been demolished because of subsidence linked to 
thawing permafrost that also destabilizes oil pipelines, roads and airports.

Indigenous hunters are falling through thinning ice and say that prey from 
seals to whales is harder to find. Rising levels of ultra-violet radiation 
may cause cancers.

Changes under way in the Arctic "present serious challenges to human health 
and food security, and possibly even (to) the survival of some cultures," the 
report says.

Even so, farming could benefit in some areas, while more productive forests 
are moving north onto former tundra.

U.S. 'sidetrack' strategy?
Foreign ministers from Arctic nations are due to meet in Iceland on Nov. 24 
but diplomats say they are deeply split, with Washington least willing to 
make drastic action.

Some European partners have accused the Bush administration of trying to 
weaken any policy recommendations that stem from the report.

President Bush has made clear he opposes mandatory curbs on gases like carbon 
dioxide, which create a greenhouse effect on Earth. Many scientists fear 
fossil fuel sources of CO2 and other gases are warming the Earth beyond the 
natural greenhouse effect.

Bush also pulled out of the U.N.'s 1997 protocol on global warming, arguing 
it was too expensive and exempted China, India and other rapidly developing 
nations.

Most other industrial nations, most recently Russia, have agreed to Kyoto's 
target of cutting developed nations' CO2 emissions by five percent below 1990 
levels by 2008-12.

One European negotiator said the administration is trying to "sidetrack the 
whole process so it is not confronted with the question, 'Do you believe in 
climate change, or don't you?'" 

A European diplomat added that "U.S. negotiators say 'we already have a 
policy on global warming - we can't have a new one just for the Arctic'."

The negotiator added that while the other member nations will try to press 
the United States on the matter in the final talks, "I cannot see any 
solution to this unless (the Bush administration) clearly changes its 
position."

Scientists agreed to discuss parts of the Arctic Council report ahead of full 
publication. And some European governments originally wanted the report 
issued before Tuesday's U.S. presidential election.

U.S. objection to wording
The Washington Post reported on Oct. 4 that the Bush administration has 
lobbied to drop a policy section stating that in order to meet climate goals 
set in 1992, the "Arctic Council urges the member states to individually and 
when appropriate, jointly, adopt climate change strategies across relevant 
sectors. These strategies should aim at the reduction of the emission of 
greenhouse gases."

A senior State Department official who asked not to be identified told the 
Post that "we're bound by the administration's position. We're not going to 
make global climate policy at the Arctic Council."

The White House said Monday it would not comment on the scientific review and 
would await a final report next year that includes input from diplomats. 
"This is one draft of a report that has yet to be finished," White House 
spokesman Trent Duffy said.

Environmental groups have urged the council to crack down.

"The big melt has begun," Jennifer Morgan, director of the World Wildlife 
Fund's global climate change campaign, said in a statement. She said 
industrialized nations were using the Arctic as a guinea pig in an 
uncontrolled experiment on climate change.

What drives climate change?

Solar input 
A third of the sun's energy is reflected back into space after hitting 
Earth's upper atmosphere, but two thirds gets through, driving Earth's 
weather engine.

 

The atmosphere 
A delicate balance of gases gives Earth its livable temperature. Known as 
"greenhouse" gases because they trap heat inside the atmosphere, they send a 
portion of that heat back to Earth's surface. The gases include water vapor, 
carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.

 

The oceans 
Covering two thirds of Earth, oceans are the key source of moisture in the 
air and they store heat efficiently, transporting it thousands of miles. The 
oceans and marine life also consume huge amounts of carbon dioxide.

 

The water cycle 
Higher air temperatures can increase water evaporation and melting of ice. 
And while water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas, clouds also affect 
evaporation, creating a cooling effect.

 

Clouds 
They both cool Earth by reflecting solar energy and warm Earth by trapping 
heat being radiated up from the surface.

 

Ice and snow 
The whiteness of ice and snow reflects heat out, cooling the planet. When ice 
melts into the sea, that drives heat from the ocean.

 

Land surfaces 
Mountain ranges can block clouds, creating "dry" shadows downwind. Sloping 
land allows more water runoff, leaving the land and air drier. A tropical 
forest will soak up carbon dioxide, but once cleared for cattle ranching, the 
same land becomes a source of methane, a greenhouse gas.

 

Human influences 
Humans might be magnifying warming by adding to the greenhouse gases 
naturally present in the atmosphere. Fuel use is the chief cause of rising 
carbon dioxide levels. On the other hand, humans create temporary, localized 
cooling effects through the use of aerosols, such as smoke and sulfates from 
industry, which reflect sunlight away from Earth.

 

(The following is a link to an interactive slide show) :

 

The greenhouse 
effect<javascript:OCW('http://www.msnbc.com/modules/greenhouse/default.asp','int520x550','width=520,height=550');>
How the Earth maintains a temperature conducive to life

 

Source: National Geographic; MSNBC

The Arctic report is online at http://amap.no/acia/<http://amap.no/acia/>.