Skip to Content.
Sympa Menu

tcrp-news - [tcrp-news] Fw: Detroit Goes for Electric Cars, but Will Drivers?

tcrp-news AT lists.ibiblio.org

Subject: Tompkins County Relocalization Project

List archive

Chronological Thread  
  • From: Tompkins County Relocalization Project <tcrp-news AT lists.ibiblio.org>
  • To: tcrp-news AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: [tcrp-news] Fw: Detroit Goes for Electric Cars, but Will Drivers?
  • Date: Sun, 11 Jan 2009 09:39:09 -0500

The New York Times
January 11, 2009
Detroit Goes for Electric Cars, but Will Drivers?
By BILL VLASIC

DEARBORN, Mich. -- Inside the Ford Motor Company, it was called
Project M -- to build a prototype of a totally electric,
battery-powered car in just six months.

When it was started last summer, the effort was considered a tall
order by the small team of executives and engineers assigned to
it. After all, the auto industry can take years to develop
vehicles.

But Ford was feeling pressure from competitors, and decided it
could not afford to fall behind in the rapidly expanding race to
put electric cars in dealer showrooms.

"Frankly, I think it’s a gamble not to do it," William C. Ford
Jr., the company’s executive chairman, said in an interview. "It’s
clear that society is headed down this road."

Certainly, Ford and other carmakers are betting billions of
dollars on this new direction, at a time when they can ill afford
it and when Detroit is facing government scrutiny after the $17.4
billion bailout of G.M. and Chrysler.

Throughout the cavernous Detroit auto show hall, typically the
high temple of brute horsepower, auto companies will be competing
this week to establish their green and electric credentials. On
Sunday, when the show opens, Ford will announce plans for its
electric vehicle, including a goal to start selling them by 2011.

These are risky bets. There are no guarantees that consumers --
for all their stated concerns about global warming, dependence on
foreign oil and unpredictable gas prices -- will buy enough of
them. They may balk, for example, at the limits on how far they
can drive on a single charge.

But the companies could get some help from President-elect Barack
Obama. He has said he is committed to promoting cleaner cars, and
may propose incentives to encourage consumers and businesses to
buy them.

Ford plans to make only 10,000 of the electric vehicles a year at
first -- very few by Detroit standards -- to test the market
cautiously.

Still, Mr. Obama’s interest, and the scope of projects by Ford and
others, is convincing some environmentalists that the industry is
serious about electric cars.

"I think the days of the gasoline engine are numbered, even if we
don’t know exactly what that number is," said Daniel Becker, head
of the Safe Climate Campaign, which is part of the Center for Auto
Safety consumer advocacy group in Washington.

The competition over electrics is picking up speed and
players. Toyota, which has so far focused its efforts on hybrid
models, will display a battery-powered concept car at the Detroit
show. Nissan’s chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, has promised to sell
an electric car in the United States and Japan as early as next
year.

Two Japanese automakers, Mitsubishi and Fuji Heavy Industries, the
parent company of Subaru, are also testing electric cars. And
Chrysler, the most troubled of Detroit’s three auto companies, has
vowed to produce its first electric car by 2010.

The surge toward electric vehicles also appears to be
jump-starting investments in advanced-battery production in the
United States. General Motors will announce plans at the auto show
to build a factory in the United States to assemble advanced
batteries for its Chevrolet Volt model, which it expects to start
selling next year.

American auto executives have warned that without homegrown
suppliers, the country could potentially become as dependent on
Asian-made batteries as it is on oil from the Middle East and
elsewhere.

"Automakers cannot afford the batteries until they are produced in
a certain volume," said Brett Smith, an industry analyst at the
Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. "But they can’t
be produced in volume until companies make a big manufacturing
investment."

Strong consumer demand has to be part of that equation, too. And
it remains unclear whether consumers will be comfortable with the
idea of buying an electric car, or whether these vehicles will
priced to compete with comparable gas-powered models.

Ford would not say what its electric car will cost. The Chevrolet
Volt is expected to cost around $40,000.

"It’s the right time to take this step, but it would be
presumptive to try and predict what the market is ultimately going
to look like," said Derrick M. Kuzak, Ford’s chief of global
product development.

So far, consumers have proved to be fickle about how much they
care about fuel economy. When gas prices soared above $4 a gallon
last year, sales of the market-leading Prius hybrid surged so
quickly that Toyota could not build them fast enough. But demand
sagged when gas prices dropped below $2 a gallon.

Industry analysts also note that electric models could be a harder
sell than hybrids, which have a gasoline engine to assist and
recharge battery packs, freeing them from the need to be plugged
in.

Most of the prospective electric models need to be charged for
several hours to cover a day’s worth of driving. Ford estimates
that its car will need at least a six-hour charge to travel 100
miles. The Volt can get 40 miles on battery power alone, and it
has a small gasoline engine that drives a generator to extend its
range.

Americans, on average, drive their cars less than 35 miles a day,
according to the latest federal statistics, and the industry is
likely to play up that fact in its advertising campaigns. With so
many families owning two cars, they may see an electric vehicle as
an attractive choice for short commutes and running errands.

One way to potentially take the worry out of being stuck with a
spent battery is to allow consumers to change them on the fly. The
firm Better Place, of Palo Alto, Calif., is working with Nissan
and other carmakers to set up stations to offer quick battery
exchanges or plug-in charging outlets in Japan, Israel, Denmark
and elsewhere. The company has also signed partnership deals in
Hawaii and California.

"What will determine the market is not going to be how far your
battery can go, but how far your infrastructure is spread so power
is available," said Shai Agassi, the chief executive of Better
Place.

The American auto industry’s most notable previous foray into
electric vehicles came in the late 1990s, when G.M. introduced the
EV-1. That car, which was available in limited numbers only
through leases, was pulled from production before it could build a
following (though a 2006 documentary about the EV-1 -- "Who Killed
the Electric Car?" -- has developed a following of its own).

Now most of the major car companies have years of experience with
hybrid vehicles and their electric systems. While Ford’s Project M
was started last year, executives said the company had been moving
in this direction since early this decade. Ford first started
selling its Escape hybrid S.U.V. in 2004.

Mr. Ford recalled how he used to drive an experimental electric
Ranger pickup truck to work each day. "The reason we used a Ranger
was because the whole back bed was full of lead-acid batteries,"
he said.

The advent of smaller, more advanced lithium-ion batteries has
also allowed the car companies to develop electric cars that look,
feel and handle much like conventional vehicles.

Ford and its supplier partner, the Canadian firm Magna
International, built the Project M prototype in the body of a Ford
Focus compact car. It is planning a more distinctive design for
the finished product when it goes on the market in two years.

The modest expectations for initial sales are reflected in Ford’s
plan for introducing the car at the auto show Sunday. There won’t
be the usual dry ice, flashing lights and pounding music.

Instead, there will be a simple announcement at a news conference,
and the car will be parked on the street in front of the
convention center, available for short test drives by journalists
through downtown Detroit.





  • [tcrp-news] Fw: Detroit Goes for Electric Cars, but Will Drivers?, Tompkins County Relocalization Project, 01/11/2009

Archive powered by MHonArc 2.6.24.

Top of Page