Tompkins County Relocalization Project

[Tompkins County Relocalization Project <tcrp-news AT lists.ibiblio.org>]

Aside from a shrinking number of holdouts (notably Exxon, British
Petroleum, and the U.S. Department of Energy), it's now widely
accepted in the industry that global oil production will begin to
fall irreversibly behind global demand somewhere between 2013 and
2015.  This just-released UK study explains why:

http://peakoil.solarcentury.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/oil-report-final.pdf

The coming deviation of the petroleum supply and demand curves is
unprecedented in human history and of a different order of
significance than that of recent price fluctuations.  Opinions on
the effect of this development differ and are not examined in
depth in this paper, but there is general agreement that the
impact upon the world economy and standard of living will be
catastrophic.  The probable consequences are far greater than the
overall impact of climate change over the next few decades (though
most of the mitigation strategies are the same).

It is important to understand that the problem is one of flow
rates, not reserves; arguments over the amount remaining in the
ground are basically irrelevant.  The current financial crisis has
momentarily depressed demand, but the lack of capital for new
projects will exacerbate the projected decline in rate of
extraction and may well move the inflection point even earlier
than the 2013-2015 time frame.

In the U.S., the best-case scenario is the immediate
implementation by the incoming Obama administration of the
strategies recommended in the study.  But in any case, we're in
for a radical restructuring of our current way of life, beginning
with limitations on our ability to travel or commute and later
extending to the availability of basic commodities, food in
particular.  I recommend this piece to anyone who wants to know
what's heading our way.

Jon