permaculture

[Lawrence London <lfljvenaura@gmail.com>]

http://orgprints.org/30058/
Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without
deforestation
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html
Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without
deforestationAbstract

   - Abstract•
   - Introduction
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#introduction>
   •
   - Results
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#results>
   •
   - Discussion
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#discussion>
   •
   - Methods
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#methods>
   •
   - Additional information
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#additional-information>
   •
   - References
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#references>
   •
   - Acknowledgements
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#acknowledgments>
   •
   - Author information
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#author-information>
   •
   - Supplementary information
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#supplementary-information>

Safeguarding the world’s remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We
assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a
hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic
assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human
diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products
meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible
limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in
2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the
option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass
harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the
quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints
strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into
natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with
globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of
many developing regions.
Subject terms:

   - Biological sciences
   <http://www.nature.com/ncomms/archive/subject/npg_subject_631/index.html>
   - Ecology
   <http://www.nature.com/ncomms/archive/subject/npg_subject_158/index.html>


Introduction

   - Abstract
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#abstract>
   •
   - Introduction•
   - Results
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#results>
   •
   - Discussion
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#discussion>
   •
   - Methods
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#methods>
   •
   - Additional information
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#additional-information>
   •
   - References
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#references>
   •
   - Acknowledgements
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#acknowledgments>
   •
   - Author information
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#author-information>
   •
   - Supplementary information
   
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#supplementary-information>

Future land use faces several interconnected challenges. Terrestrial
ecosystems play a key role in the global climate system, host a substantial
fraction of global biodiversity and provide ecosystems services that are
essential for humans, including food, fibre, energy, water and air
purification, micro-climate regulation and protection from natural hazards1
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#ref1>.
Three-quarters of the earth’s terrestrial, ice-free surface is currently
under human use2
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#ref2>,
3
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#ref3>,
and one-quarter of global potential net primary production (NPPpot, the
annual net production of organic matter by primary producers such as plants
that would prevail in the absence of humans) is appropriated by humans4
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#ref4>,
5
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#ref5>.
Land use is associated with many other environmental effects, such as
eutrophication, pollution, biodiversity loss or climate effects, reaching
levels that jeopardize the provision of ecosystem services to society6
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#ref6>,
7
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#ref7>.
Exploring ways that allow feeding and fuelling the growing global
population while safeguarding the life-supporting functions of ecosystems
is generally recognized as an urgent sustainability challenge1
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#ref1>,
8
<http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160419/ncomms11382/full/ncomms11382.html#ref8>
.