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  • From: "Kelly Finigan" <kfinigan@spots.ca>
  • To: john@eco-living.net, permaculture <permaculture@lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Cc:
  • Subject: [permaculture] energy futures was: Any idea is this is viable?
  • Date: Wed, 20 Aug 2003 21:37:40 -0700

Hi there:

on the topic of energy futures etc, I just finished reading "The Party's
Over"...gives a pretty realistic (I think) future energy case scenario,
although it could be seen as bleak - just depends how societies react over
the next few decades.

The author's premise is based on geological studies of oil production
peaking very soon (if not already). He then considers "replacement fuels"
for oil including coal, natural gas, solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and
assesses whether / how much these can "replace" oil. His basic conclusion:
there will not be enough replacements to maintain the rate of energy use
society currently has, let alone future growth (e.g. "development" of India,
China, etc). He also considers conservation measures but finds these
only "soften the landing", but we WILL have a landing in a low-energy
future. He sees this happening in 20 to 50 years.

>From my experience, a lot of what he says is correct: one source at
Natural Resources Canada has cited studies that Canada may be OUT of
natural gas between 2017 and 2021 (three separate studies apparently that I
do not have...they cost several hundred dollars each).

If you are interested in a relatively in-depth study of our energy past,
present and future, grab this from your local library. I'm also expecting
Holmgren's new book soon and am interested what he has to say about energy.

re: biodiesel etc, I agree with John: there will be local solutions that
work well - grab these and use them well.

Start with design though by clarifying the goal. Perhaps by asking "how can
we transport widgets across water" or even better "can we use something
local to substitute for widgets so we don't have to move widgets across
water" instead of "how do we make biodiesel to run my boat to get those
widgets here"...I find so many times people begin with the third question
instead of the first and end up doing/making/building systems that (although
admittedly COOL and "cutting edge") MAYBE weren't needed. Of course
sometimes they are, in which case I like this approach: design as small as
needed and no more (boat, truck, building), design for efficiency, accept
local free energy (space heat, space cooling, solar thermal water, wind for
sails, tides), then use locally available appropriate external energy
sources, and finally maintain the systems.

ciao for now,
Kelly

PS thanks for the original question - its good to vet these technologies -
and also to Harold W for bringing up the energy thread on the list


--
Kelly Finigan, M.Sc. P.Eng. Permaculture Designer
~ Sustainability consultant & ecological designer ~

744 - 4 Street NW
Calgary, Alberta T2N 1P2
phone 1-403-283-7270




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