Healthy soil and sustainable growing

[Doug Willhite <drwillhite@earthlink.net>]

Paul,
I have no idea how many California readers that your list reaches,  
but thought I'd forward this weather alert just in case....

By the way, I agree with Mark that you've done a fine job making this  
list a reliable news source, as well as a source of reasonable  
thinking. Reliable and reasonable aren't words I would use to  
describe very many of the list-serves or news sources we've found on  
the web.

Thanks for keeping the "end of cheap oil" & "climate change" deniers  
in check here too. The evidence for both is overwhelming for anyone  
caring and courageous enough to take an honest look at the facts.  
Besides maintaining "business as usual" I can't fathom what anyone  
would have to gain by trying to perpetuate further denial with  
propaganda.

doug
http://chihuahuavalley.net



Begin forwarded message:

Sent: Thu, Jan 14, 2010 4:58 pm
Subject: Pinyon Weather Alert

In some parts of Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain  
could fall over the course of 5-10 days.

This is what the emergency response community is saying (by way of  
our county emergency response group):
Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern  
Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our  
weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out  
over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from  
reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200 
+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm  
systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over  
the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream  
directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous  
dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at  
the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source.  
The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so  
these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy  
rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the  
lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at  
least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire  
state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to  
Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and  
since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event  
of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to  
occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the  
Sierra after it’s all said and done. But there’s a big and rather  
threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events  
are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this  
jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway).  
Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical  
statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to  
be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to  
see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically- 
favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at low er  
elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models  
are virtually unanimous in “reloading” the powerful jet stream and  
forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our  
southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because  
it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to  
develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling  
between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as  
scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the  
models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because  
of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it’s worth  
mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly- 
fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000  
feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious  
flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the  
tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming  
7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of  
themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result  
from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep  
low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by  
early next week. Though it’s not clear at the moment just how  
powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a  
widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra  
peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the  
200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the  
mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed  
out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active  
across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory.  
The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some  
point du ring this interval, especially with the possibility of a  
heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of  
Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over  
the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable  
event. Stay tuned.

Steve Murray
Dean, College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
California State University, Fullerton
Phone: 657-278-2638; FAX: 657-278-5390





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