After seeing so many reports like this, I'm
starting to notice a pattern. Either:
1) These reporters can't visualize or believe
a significant move toward (local) production of healthier food
or
2) They're emphasizing the danger to scare people
into doing just that.
I can't see a legitimate reason for maize and
oilseed prices to significantly affect food prices. They aren't
food. Wheat, sure, corn also, but that isn't what is usually
mentioned. It seems that they assume that people are incapable of reacting
to the threats in a positive way.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, December 06, 2007 4:23
PM
Subject: [Livingontheland] Food Prices
Climbing, With No End in Sight
Published on Thursday, December 6, 2007 by Inter Press
Service Food Prices Climbing, With No End in Sight http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=40359
WASHINGTON
- Globalisation, climate change, and the mass production of biofuels are
pushing up food prices worldwide, which could jeopardise the livelihoods of
the world's poorest, according to a report released Tuesday by the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).1206 09
"Food
prices have been steadily decreasing since the Green Revolution, but the
days of falling food prices may be over," said Joachim von Braun, lead
author of the report and director general of IFPRI.
Titled, "The World
Food Situation: New Driving Forces and Required Actions", the 16-page
report examined how various global trends are impacting world hunger on
both the supply and demand ends of the market.
"Surging demand for
feed, food, and fuel have recently led to drastic price increases, which
are not likely to fall in the foreseeable future," von Braun said. But
"climate change will also have a negative impact on food
production."
Similar findings have been reported by the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development, the U.S. Department of
Agriculture, and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation, according to
IFPRI.
Researchers predict that shifting weather conditions resulting
from climate change will disrupt rainfall patterns that farmers rely on to
nourish their crops and water the grasslands that feed their livestock. As
a result, cereal production in South Asia could drop 22 percent by 2080,
while wheat production in Africa may virtually disappear by that time, the
report said.
Furthermore, temperature increases of more than three
degrees Celsius could in turn lift food prices by as much as 40
percent.
The production of crop-based biofuels - renewable energy
sources developed in response to climate change - may also dramatically
impact food supply, and thereby further escalate food prices.
If the
countries that have already committed to biofuel production, as well as
other high-potential producer countries, carry out their current investment
plans, global maize prices would increase by 26 percent and oilseed prices
would rise by 18 percent by 2020, according to the report. This is due to
state subsidies for biofuels, as well the shift in committing scarce
resources toward cultivating biofuel crops.
"As biofuels become
increasingly profitable, more land, water, and capital will be diverted to
their production, and the world will face more trade-offs between food and
fuel," the report said.
In the U.S. alone, the use of maize for ethanol
production increased by two and a half times between 2000 and
2006.
On the demand side of worldwide food production, globalisation,
economic growth, and urbanisation in places such as China and India have
impacted people's dietary preferences and food choices, the report noted.
While demand is on the increase for processed food and high-value
agricultural crops such as vegetables, fruit, meat and dairy, demand for
grains and other staple crops is declining.
This shift in "tastes"
represents a microcosm of the food costs issue, said IPFRI research analyst
Timothy Sulser, who also contributed to the report. As wealthier
populations shift to a diet full of meat, fruits, and vegetables, poorer
populations will struggle to afford ever pricier
food staples.
"There will be an even wider gap between affluent
people and poorer people in terms of access to a nutritional diet" if
trends continue, Sulser said.
With many factors threatening the
world's food supply and demand, immediate action is needed in the areas of
international development and global trade policy in order to avert what
could be a dramatic hunger crisis, according to authors of the
report.
Eliminating trade barriers and programs that set aside
agriculture resources is one way that developed countries could help equip
developing countries for the rising food prices.
Other suggestions
include strengthening policies to promote early childhood nutrition -
thereby diminishing the risks related to limited food access - and
incorporating food and agriculture considerations into the agenda for
domestic and international climate change policy.
Yet these solutions
may only mitigate the effects of a global trend whose causal forces, such
as globalisation and climate change, have already been set in motion, say
researchers.
"The policy suggestions are intended to help minimise some
of the impact of these changes," said Sulser. "It's important now to look
at how we can help people adapt to the changing the situation."
©
2007 Inter Press
Service
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