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  • From: "Josep L. Guallar-Esteve" <jlguallar AT maduixa.net>
  • To: thomas AT tbeckett.com,<internetworkers AT lists.ibiblio.org>
  • Subject: Re: [internetworkers] Window of Opportunity For Iraq War?
  • Date: Sun, 9 Mar 2003 18:53:09 -0500

On Saturday 08 March 2003 09:229am, Thomas Beckett wrote:
> Yes, there is. It starts getting very very hot after March. And the
> moon phase is a factor, too. U.S. troops have a night-vision
> advantage when there is no moon. The next new moon is April 1, 2003.

Actualy,

The US Armiy regularly trains in night combat. Most of the world armies
don't. A night-fight is the best from a US point-of-view. Anyway,
anything less than full moon, specialy with camouflaged vehicles and
against an enemy not-so-well-trained on night combat, is a win
situation for US troops.

Then, there's the air supperiority factor. Iraq has no real airpower.
And a very limited AAA capability. This means that in 2 weeks maximum
of agressive air patrols, armed helos can fly over Iraq as easily as it
is to fly over the OuterBanks.

Half-jokingly, I predicted sometime ago that war with Iraq would begin
on March, 19th. 10 days from today. Time to get yet another convoy
with supplies from the US to the Gulf. Will this be enough?

Wat really worries me is Turkey and the Kurds. If the Turkish army
enters in Northen Iraq/Kurdistan it's not going to be pretty. Kurds
will answer back to Turkey with determined firepower (as always)... and
even the former talibans that direct the will of the more extremist
Kurds will oppose the Turkish army.

Will we need to go and save the Turkish from its own stupidity, as
Germany had to do with Italians going to war in Greece in 1942? Will
the Turkish get their own Chechenya?

Will taliban-types in Iraq run to Jordan's border, with the expected
fleeing Iraqui civilians, and make their way to Israel/Palestine?

IMHO things can get too messy just thinking in the military side of the
operation. And then, with no real support from Europe, the moral side
of the operation it's already a failure.. Add both, plus some mullah
claiming for jihad and you got a pretty nasty scenario.

von Klausevitch said "war is the continuation of politics by other
means" . This has been taken out of context many times. But the
interest of his observation resides in relating politics ang military
operations. that is, you just cannot do one without doing the other.
The troops build up around Kuwait is missing the supporting political
build up around the mission. I see this as a great overlook that can be
costly.


Salut,
Josep
--
Josep Lluis Guallar-Esteve http://www.ibiblio.org/sinner/
Linux System and Network Administration http://www.easternrad.com
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