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[Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>]

The first thing that struck me is WHY is that article dated December 19, 
2008???  AFTER the fact?
 
WHY wasn't that article dated one year prior when prices were inflated?  
Certainly the articles I was reading a year plus ago were warning that a big 
deflation in prices unfolding.
 
 
>From the weird and quirky point of view of me......
 
Deflation happens right after masses of people buy high.
Deflation is a buying opportunity.  Inflation is a selling opportunity.
 
Helicopter Ben abaondoned the fleet of helicopters about 3 months ago, and 
has ordered the airforce to man the B-52 bombers, and he has the army,navy, 
marines and the coast guard and FEMA on stand-by.  
 
 


--- On Sat, 12/20/08, bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com> wrote:

From: bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
Subject: [Homestead] Something new.... Deflation
To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
Date: Saturday, December 20, 2008, 12:38 PM

>From the editorial board of today's NYT.  Many people are worried about
fututre inflation and some are hysterically claiming hyper-inflation.  But, 
for
now, deflation really is the big worry; and it will affect everyone, including
the more self-reliant than average people, homesteaders or otherwise. 

 At its simplist, deflation is dollars chasing the same or too many goods 
while
inflation is the corrollary of  dollars chasing the same or too few goods. 
Inflation is probably 'down the road'.  Hyper-inflation is slightly
'possible' , also 'down the road'.  And no one with any
knowledge can claim they know if 'down the road' is six months or 16
years.  People can ,and do, guess, and some guesses are eudcated and others
aren't; but, they are all guesses.

Deflation is occuring now, it started with real-estate and is expanding 
quickly
into all parts of the economy.  Even if you don't have debt, deflation can
cause you great harm.  I have zero -debt.  I have had zero-debt for most of my
life, but this deflationary cycle has hit me like a sledgehammer.  I am not
unique.  The article gives some brief explanation of the danger.  Some of the
reader's comments are interesting.  Most of the people commenting just do
not under economics well enough to see the bad part of the picture.

oh well. if you are interested, take what you will.................

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

December 19, 2008, 6:21 pm 

Something New to Worry About: Deflation

By The Editorial Board
Hundreds of thousands of people are being laid off. The nation’s leading
banks and carmakers need bailouts. The stock market has had an ugly 2008.

Well, here’s something else to worry about: deflation. This week, the
government announced that prices fell in November for the second month in a 
row.


It might seem hard to understand what the problem is with falling prices. If
all they mean is that we can buy our Christmas presents for less this month 
than
we could have a month ago, maybe we can get the decked out Mac after all.
What’s there to worry about?

A lot. If prices persist in their decline, they could be devastating to the
economy — not primarily because of their impact on consumers’ spending
habits but because of their impact on consumers’ ability to service their
debts. 

Think of it this way: Say you earn $50,000 a year, and have a $200,000
mortgage. If there is heavy deflation, prices and salaries fall. Your salary
might go down to $40,000, but your mortgage would remain the same. Suddenly,
making those mortgage payments has gotten a lot tougher.

American businesses need to service about $11 trillion in debts, according to
the Federal Reserve, a task that will become more difficult as falling prices
eat into their meager profits. Households owe $14 trillion — which will become
a more onerous burden if businesses cut salaries to bring costs in line with
falling revenues or — far more likely — fire more workers. 

In 1933, the American economist Irving Fisher argued that depressions are
caused by a chain of events from over-indebtedness to deflation that goes
somewhat like this: 

Banks concerned about their corporate customers’ indebtedness demand debt
liquidation, which forces firms to sell off assets at fire-sale prices to pay
them back. 

Money in circulation declines as banks hoard the dollars, which causes 
spending
to drop and prices to fall, depressing businesses’ net worth and profits and
throwing many into bankruptcy. 

Production is cut; workers are laid off. This deepens pessimism and leads to
more hoarding of money.

This chain of events looks strikingly similar to our current predicament. 
Banks
aren’t lending, businesses are failing, jobs are being lost and — since
November — prices are falling.

What to do?

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, got the nickname “Helicopter
Ben” after a 2002 speech in which he argued that the federal government could
defeat a deflationary cycle by flooding the economy with money — even if it
meant taking up Milton Friedman’s suggestion from four decades ago that the
government simply drop cash from helicopters.

(You can read the 2002 speech here.)

The Fed has begun doing that — in a way. Its committee that decides these
matters has agreed to start pumping more money into the economy.

If deflation gets worse, who knows? Maybe Mr. Bernanke will be manning his
helicopter.

http://theboard.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/something-new-to-worry-about-deflation/


      
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>From cayadopi AT yahoo.com  Thu Dec 25 10:52:59 2008
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Merry Xmas to all also !
 
A wholesale price of $7 US apiece (on average) for hunting knives varying in 
length from 8" - 13" including scabbords & small shapening stones, regardless 
of where the stainless came from seems like a really good deal.  Then there 
are the shorter straight blades, more of a multi-purpose stainless steel 
knife ($3 - $5 wholesale).
 
Maybe not for a knife affecionado who still has sufficient currency.  But for 
someone who has lost or broke their knife, for suddenly finds themselves in 
need of one down the road and at a reasonable price.... they will sell. 
 
I am thinking in terms of the old saying I first heard as a kid,,,, "Service 
the masses, live with the classes. Service the classes, live with the 
masses."    
 
The masses can not afford the most expensive knives... but they still need 
knives.

 
There are a lot of people who think differently about bying quality.  Some 
will look for quality and buy something of the best quality that will last a 
lifetime.  So say for example they spend $200 on a single knife.  Others will 
take the same $200, and buy 30-40 cheap knives, sell off half of them for 
$200, get their original money back, and keep the balance, using the spares 
as replacements for when the cheaper ones break, get lost, etc.
 
People buy the best quality that they can afford,,,,, key word being afford.
 
The quality of things in general is really going down hill --- because masses 
can not afford quality.
 
For example, my decent quality hand mixer of some 20 years, totally broke 
down last month.... a tool I use often in the kitchen.  So I trotted over to 
Walmart to find a replacement.  There were 3 varieties, one of $6, one for 
$12, and one for $29.  I opened the box of the $29 first, and was appalled, 
super super appalled at the quality.  It was total junk and totally useless 
in a kitchen, although it had the specific gadget I was looking for.  Same 
with the $12 one.  Appalling quality.  The $6 one actually was better, but 
didn't have the gadget I was looking for in a mixer (bread hooks).  I wound 
up leaving in disgust.  Yet, these mixers are in fact selling.... because 
that is what the masses can afford. 
 
>From the point of view of re-sale,,, I have no doubts about selling them.  
>The masses are getting poorer by the day.
 
>From the point of view of personal use, I would prefer super quality - and 
>if I can't afford, then lots of back-up replacements.  LOL.
 
For guns, I think I would think differently though, as I would guess there 
are probably personal safety issues involved. 
 
 

--- On Thu, 12/25/08, bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com> wrote:

From: bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
To: cayadopi AT yahoo.com, homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
Date: Thursday, December 25, 2008, 10:06 AM

Good am and Merry Christmas to you, Leslie.  The jagged or serratted edge on 
on
a hunting knife is for the same use as its function on any knife --sawing 
motion
for tough cutting.

Personally, I would not waste my time with Chinese knives for future barter.  
I
realize the Chinese are now manufacturing for some of the better names, but 
that
has badly  tarnished the reputation of some of those names.  All of the 
knives I
curerently own , hunting or otherwise were made in Germany or the U.S.  I
don't see a time where I would change that (there are very pricey knives of
Japanese steel and manufacture and other such, but for a regular person, 
Germany
or U.S. is always much better.

The same is true for other 'tools'.  Don't buy cheap Chinese
knock-off pistol magazines,  Buy them from U.S. or country of origiin.  There
are Chinese magazines that are fine, but you need to know which. 

 Cheaper is not better with tools.  Same applies to handtools.  I'll bet if
someone like Don has any Chinese tools, they are carried as a set that might 
be
lost or as a back-up because they were cheap.  Chinese tools are better than
noithing, but usually not good enough to defray the fact that they will always
be cheap tools.

Binoculars, I don't know.  My pair are from germany, but they are very old.
 Japamese optics since the 60's have been excellent, I have read.

Steel might go back up in price, as will cheap, moderately priced, and
expensive knives, when that occurs.  But, it is much more likely that pistol 
or
rifle full capacity magazines will become more scarce and easier to barter, 
for
there are now the present political considerations, also.

I don't know the best set of moderately priced wrenches, for example.  But,
that might do you better than a big mean looking hunting knife for barter if
that is your purpose.  

Many options .......  

If you know for a fact that you will be in that place for the future, and that
it will be 'X' number of people; I would first concentrate (as you
already are) on all of the needs and desires for those "X" people for
whatever "Y" amount of time, you fear or plan that you might need. 
After that , it is all a hedge.  Hedge with what you know best and think will
travel best and will be most easily exchangable.

Good talking with you on this Christmas am .......................


----------------------------------------------------------------


--- On Thu, 12/25/08, Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com> wrote:

> From: Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Thursday, December 25, 2008, 4:49 AM
> A good contingency plan....
>  
>  
>  
> I suspect gold is a good vehicle for storing excess saved
> wealth during very specific periods of time (collapse of
> currency,hyperinflation) and as a way to pass on that wealth
> to heirs without the taxman stealing any.  As well as a
> currency two individuals can use for trade if there is an
> agreement on value.
>  
> For immediate survival needs, tools, ammo etc a very good
> investment.
>  
> I made another excellent "investment" this week
> that I was able to get at wholesale prices, and I'm
> thinking of getting more to use as barter.  Hunting knives
> of various lengths, bone saws, filet knives, skinning
> knives, general all purpose knives, field binoculars (with
> surprisingly good optics).  And of course all made in
> China.....  I figured since I don't know how to make
> steel.... it's a good investment.
>  
> Question.... on the hunting knives.... some of them have
> some wicked jagged edges on the upper side.  What is the
> jagged edge really for?
>  
>  
>  
> Merry Xmas, all
> 
> --- On Wed, 12/24/08, rayzentz AT aim.com
> <rayzentz AT aim.com> wrote:
> 
> From: rayzentz AT aim.com <rayzentz AT aim.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> To: bobford79 AT yahoo.com, homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Wednesday, December 24, 2008, 9:56 AM
> 
> You know, until recently, I was planning on buying more
> gold, but figured it was
> more prudent to stock up on items that may not be
> available..., food, firearms,
> ammo, tools, etc. Those may be of more value than gold, and
> much more readily
> "spendable"
> Ray
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> To: cayadopi AT yahoo.com; homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Sent: Tue, 23 Dec 2008 10:41 am
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> 
> 
> 
> Leslie my comments were specific to Dr. Fekete 's
> meaning, using his own
> words : 
> 
> 
> " In the end, no one was willing to exchange gold and
> silver coins for the
> 
> debased coinage of the empire."
> 
> Acoording to him, and others like him, I might add, the
> gold never lost its 
> value; the gold was never debased.  On the contrary,
> because if its innate, 
> intrinsic value, it was hoarded and hidden away, for there
> was nothing left, 
> proclaimed by fiat that had retained enough value that the
> owners of gold were 
> "willing to exchange" their gold.
> 
> Now, Fekete is an uber goldbug.  I find good points in alot
> of his writing; but
> 
> other groups would call him hysterical or even a
> 'nut'.
> There are other finacial sites similar to financial
> sense--the site that you 
> quote.  Some or bigger, some smaller, but they all have
> well written commentary
> 
> by many well educated ,sometimes prominent, men.  Each
> commengtary makes
> perfect 
> sense until you read the next commentary.  There are many
> historical analogies,
> 
> and different ways of interpreting those historical events.
>  Even today, our 
> best economists still disagree on what finally ended the
> great depression, and 
> that wasn't very long ago.
> 
> There is also the factor of price manipulation of
> currencies (including gold if
> 
> you consider gold to be money) by governments and
> financials cartels all
> through 
> history.  Much tales of manipulation are real and much is
> the fabric of told
> & 
> yet untold conspiracy theories.
> 
> Dr. Fekete is just another very smart voice.  try
> 321Gold.com,or  jsmineset.com
> 
> , for a bigger variety of commentary.  JSMineset is the
> most prominent (along 
> with the commentry section of Peter Schiff's
> Europac.net.).  You seem to be
> 
> drifting toward to very worst case senario set; and you
> could very well be 
> right.  I'm still reading and thinking, having not yet
> decided that anyone
> is 
> even close to perfecting predicting the future.  And, I
> always 'hope'
> for a 
> better case scenario..:-) .............
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>  
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> --- On Tue, 12/23/08, Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> wrote:
> 
> > From: Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> > Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> > To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> > Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 10:20 AM
> > No I don't think I misinterpreted.
> > ?
> > In other things I have read, governments, serfdoms,
> > kingdoms,?etc. practiced "clipping" coins
> (i.e
> > they cheated on the value of the coin).? The modern
> day
> > equivalent is clearly seen in US dimes and quarters,
> which
> > are no longer solid silver.? They have been clipped
> > (filled) with other metals.? The US government is
> cheating
> > on the value of coins & paper currency.? The
> exchange
> > of X units of labor for a 100% silver dime, is now
> exchanged
> > for 1/100th% of the same amount of silver via
> > "clipping"/cheating.? (Not an exact number,
> but
> > illustrative for argument.)? This has been a long
> drawn out
> > process of clipping both metal & paper currency in
> the
> > US?spanning some 80-90 years.
> > ?
> > The hoarding events that has lead to current time
> > backwardation probably?has occured?in two stages.? The
> > first being those who hid their gold from the
> government
> > confiscating it some 80-90 ago when the US made it
> illegal -
> > and passed it on to their children.? And the second
> wave
> > starting when the US made it legal to own gold again,
> and
> > then took us off the gold standard in the 1970s
> triggering
> > fear of monetary collapse.? I would venture there are
> a lot
> > of gold bugs who never sold any of the gold they
> purchased
> > in the 70s as back then they understood the collapse
> of the
> > fiat currency was underway regardless of how
> many?years it
> > would take - even if they bought at the top.? I know I
> was
> > in my early twenties, and I understood that back then
> - that
> > gold is to be hoarded and exchanged as the currency
> finishes
> > collapsing.
> > ?
> > Fekete explains hoarding was?a long drawn out event in
> the
> > W. Roman Empire, and in modern times we have a similar
> event
> > going on.
> > ?
> > Backwardation in part is telling us that fewer and
> fewer
> > people?hoardin
> g gold/silver today are willing to exchange
> > it for paper dollars or for those "clipped"
> silver
> > dimes and quarters that are no longer 100% silver.
> > ?
> > Currently the troops are still accepting below minimum
> > wage(?) paid in the form of paper fiat currency.???If
> the
> > government doesn't increase their wages in sync
> with
> > hyperinflation - how long will they stay?? How can
> they
> > feed their families?? 
> > ?
> > There is no doubt in my mind that the US Gov't is,
> and
> > has been for a long time, bankrupt.? So far the US is
> still
> > paying debts by creating more and more currency out of
> thin
> > air.? How long people will continue to accept that
> form of
> > payment is another story.? I do believe we're
> headed
> > for a monetary hyperinflation phase, where the
> currency
> > collapses in the end.? (And not just the US, I believe
> a
> > lot of G-20s are going the same way.)
> > ?
> > What happens after that??
> > ?
> > >From what I've read, hyperinflations do not
> end
> > until governments stop issuing the?collapsing
> currency,
> > issue a new currency, and promise not to debase it by
> > increasing the number of units circulating.? It
> won't
> > work until there is CONfidence that the government
> will stop
> > the clipping.??I wish I knew if that typically happens
> > overnight, or if the next new currency?typically gets
> > clipped again after a short period of CONfidence.?The
> gold
> > bugs may?hoard their gold, even if it means passing to
> the
> > next generation... meaning there is no centralized
> price
> > mechanism.
> > ?
> > How DO people value gold outside of a government
> issued
> > money system - which in part is what I interpreted
> James to
> > be talking about.? You can't eat it, but you can
> use it
> > to trade without others willing to accept it, but what
> is
> > the pricing mechanism?? 
> > ?
> > If the dollar collapses and people are still willing
> to
> > trade gold for say Euro, you have a pricing
> mechanism.? If
> > the Euro collapses, and the Canadian or NZDollar still
> > sports a gold price, you can still exchange it, and so
> on.?
> > After that, how do people come to a cons
> ensus of value - of
> > fair value?? If no one is willing to trade for ANY
> fiat
> > currency, then what?
> > ?
> > The way I read Fekete's article is that during the
> dark
> > ages there was a period where you could not count on
> > gold/silver being used as a medium of exchange.? It
> may
> > have been because there was no way to determine value
> (i.e.
> > how many grams would be worth a dozen eggs, etc.)? He
> > states that gold/silver went into hiding never to
> re-emerge
> > during the lifetime of the original holders.? I assume
> from
> > that that it was passed on from generation to
> generation
> > until such time as there was a reason to swap out into
> a
> > different kind of currency or other medium of exchange
> (as
> > there have been many besides gold/silver).? Of course
> back
> > then, computers and modern transportation did not
> exist to
> > facilitate world wide trading.
> > ?
> > In a Dark Ages II type scenario, you can't eat
> gold,
> > can't wear it, can't heat with it.? However,
> you
> > can pass it to the next generation clandestinely and
> avoid
> > paying taxes to theiving governments.? LOL.? 
> > ?
> > I think Fekete is saying that gold/silver retains
> value as
> > a more wide-spread medium of exchange (whether in
> physical
> > metal or metal backed currency) only when their is
> > wide-spread confidence in the governing body.? 
> > ?
> > Under a chaotic government(s) situation - and limited
> > person to person gold/silver exchange - a large
> > landowner/farmer MIGHT be willing to exchange his
> excess
> > food production for some gold IF his goal is to
> acquire gold
> > for his heirs or for a time when the governing body
> can be
> > trusted again.? However, a small farmer barely able to
> > produce above his own needs is not going to swap his
> one
> > extra chicken for gold if he needs a horse shoe from
> the
> > blacksmith for his plow, and the blacksmith
> doesn't want
> > gold but needs to eat.
> > ?
> > I don't know if the US or the world will decsend
> into
> > another Dark Ages; I don't discount the
> possibility -
> > but I don't have any way of determining how far
> out
> > along the fat tail of a
>  bell curve?the possibility?of a
> > Dark Ages II needs to go.? Of if we will just return
> to a
> > more agrarian society, or what.
> > ?
> > One point that Fekete makes is that he foresees a time
> when
> > there would be no sellers of gold/silver.? I would
> have to
> > think about that for a long time.? But my first
> thought, is
> > maybe initially but, I think in time?some would be
> willing
> > to sell as a last resort (or not knowing the value) to
> those
> > who have excess production, who see gold/silver as a
> future
> > generation(s) way of preserving wealth.? 
> > ?
> > On your point, "Anyone who now believes things
> will
> > become 'that bad', should be out with ropes,
> rifles,
> > pitchforks, and whatever else will kill and maim those
> in
> > power who would allow such a thing to occur."
> > ?
> > True, but in truth WHO allowed it to occur?? WE DID.
> WE
> > who did not rise up in anger at the debasement of the
> > currency and put a stop to it.? WE who understood the
> > consequences and failed to teach values of exchange
> and of
> > production and self-preservation through our own
> efforts.?
> > WE DO deserve to get a new Dark Ages, not because we
> are
> > sitting and waiting for it, but because we failed to
> > recognize the cause of it and failed to prevent it,
> even
> > with all of our accumulated knowledge of thousands of
> years.
> > ?
> > Although ropes and guillotines won't be needed -
> > starvation and disease will take care of it.
> > ?
> > Yes, it echoes of Ayn Rand, but to me it is the much
> more
> > accurate to blame "we" than those in power.
> > ?
> > ?
> > PS CAPS are not "yelling",,,, but meant to
> > emphasis on paper the words I would emphasis in
> person.
> > 
> > 
> > --- On Tue, 12/23/08, bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> > wrote:
> > 
> > From: bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> > Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> > To: cayadopi AT yahoo.com, homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> > Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 11:04 AM
> > 
> > Leslie, I believe you mis-read Dr. Fekets's
> intenet
> > where he draws upon
> > historical anaylis.  He wrote:
> > 
> > "............... causation goes in the opposite
> > direction. The
> 
> > disappearance of gold and silver coins as a means of
> > exchange was a
> > long-drawn-out, cumulative event. In the end, no one
> was
> > willing to exchange
> > gold and silver coins for the debased coinage of the
> > empire. At that point the
> > empire was bankrupt; it could no longer pay the troops
> that
> > defended its
> > boundaries against the barbarians threatening with
> > invasion.'......."
> > 
> > That is to say, that the gold and silver still
> retained
> > their value , in his
> > opinion; but ttheir was nothing left in the fiat
> system
> > worth the trade value of
> > the gold and silver.  And, if we are sitting and
> waiting
> > for a return of the
> > "dark ages", we desrve whatever we get,
> anyway. 
> > Anyone who now
> > believes things will become 'that bad', should
> be
> > out with ropes,
> > rifles, pitchforks, and whatever else will kill and
> maim
> > those in power who
> > would allow such a thing to occur.  Most of us think
> we are
> > witnessing a
> > calamity, but not anything close to a repeat of the
> > 'Dark Ages'.
> > 
> >
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > --- On Tue, 12/23/08, Leslie
> <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> > wrote:
> > 
> > 
> > > ?
> > > Fekete writes an update on the outlook for the
> value
> > of
> > > gold.? This one is quite interesting as he talks
> > about what
> > > happened to gold/silver during/after the collapse
> of
> > the
> > > Western Roman Empire and the parallels to today.?
> > History
> > > supports James'?points a couple weeks
> ago?that
> > > gold/silvere will have zero value - the pricing
> > mechanism
> > > will be gone.
> > > ?
> > > Fekete warns that gold in backwardation in Dec
> 2008,
> > is
> > > warning, is a premonition of what is coming down
> the
> > road.?
> > > He believes there will be repeated instances of
> > > backwardation, each more severe than the
> preceeding,
> > as
> > > gold/silver go into hiding.? Hyperinflation and
> > ultimately
> > > the collapse of the monetary system - a point
> where
> > > gold/silver will not have a value either, because
> > those
> > > hoarding will not be willing to part with it,
> until
> > such
> > > t
> ime as confidence in a fiat currency returns.? 
> > > ?
> > > After the collapse of the Roman Empire we went
> into
> > the
> > > Dark Ages, where payment in gold/silver could not
> be
> > taken
> > > for granted - gold/silver went into hiding never
> to
> > > re-emerge during the lifetime of the original
> > holders.?
> > > Fekete warns that the disappearance of
> gold/silver is
> > > ominous.
> > > ?
> > >
> > 
> > 
> >       
> > _______________________________________________
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> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> >       
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>From bobford79 AT yahoo.com  Thu Dec 25 11:09:38 2008
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Everyone needs to decide on their niche, Leslie, you are right.  But, always 
remeber the purpose of an item.  If it can't hold an edge , is it really a 
knife?  People pay extra for good quality tools for utilitarian purposes  -- 
the 'brand' is established because of the quality of the function.

You mentioned the safety aspect in firearm magazines, the same applies to a 
dull knife.  And, you can do better than $7 bucks each-- a lot better, by the 
gross-- if you want to buy cheap chinese hunting knives.  I don't know the 
knives of which you speak, maybe they are of better than average chinese 
quality.  But a good knife is more than a pointy piece of steel, ;-) 

I have sevarl really nice pieces of art leslie; and I also own a couple of 
crap pieces that were received as gifts and have sentimental attachment.  The 
good stuff always sells the fastest, no matter the market.  

I'm only playing devil's advocate here, you do as you please.  But, check 
further into wholesale price vs. value, chinese stuff is being 
'dumped'............

-------------------------------------------------------------------------


--- On Thu, 12/25/08, Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com> wrote:

> From: Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Thursday, December 25, 2008, 8:52 AM
> Merry Xmas to all also !
>  
> A wholesale price of $7 US apiece (on average) for hunting
> knives varying in length from 8" - 13" including
> scabbords & small shapening stones, regardless of where
> the stainless came from seems like a really good deal. 
> Then there are the shorter straight blades, more of a
> multi-purpose stainless steel knife ($3 - $5 wholesale).
>  
> Maybe not for a knife affecionado who still has sufficient
> currency.  But for someone who has lost or broke their
> knife, for suddenly finds themselves in need of one down the
> road and at a reasonable price.... they will sell. 
>  
> I am thinking in terms of the old saying I first heard as a
> kid,,,, "Service the masses, live with the classes.
> Service the classes, live with the masses."    
>  
> The masses can not afford the most expensive knives... but
> they still need knives.
> 
>  
> There are a lot of people who think differently about
> bying quality.  Some will look for quality and buy
> something of the best quality that will last a lifetime. 
> So say for example they spend $200 on a single knife. 
> Others will take the same $200, and buy 30-40 cheap knives,
> sell off half of them for $200, get their original money
> back, and keep the balance, using the spares as replacements
> for when the cheaper ones break, get lost, etc.
>  
> People buy the best quality that they can afford,,,,, key
> word being afford.
>  
> The quality of things in general is really going down hill
> --- because masses can not afford quality.
>  
> For example, my decent quality hand mixer of some 20 years,
> totally broke down last month.... a tool I use often in the
> kitchen.  So I trotted over to Walmart to find a
> replacement.  There were 3 varieties, one of $6, one for
> $12, and one for $29.  I opened the box of the $29 first,
> and was appalled, super super appalled at the quality.  It
> was total junk and totally useless in a kitchen, although it
> had the specific gadget I was looking for.  Same with the
> $12 one.  Appalling quality.  The $6 one actually was
> better, but didn't have the gadget I was looking for in
> a mixer (bread hooks).  I wound up leaving in disgust. 
> Yet, these mixers are in fact selling.... because that is
> what the masses can afford. 
>  
> >From the point of view of re-sale,,, I have no doubts
> about selling them.  The masses are getting poorer by the
> day.
>  
> >From the point of view of personal use, I would prefer
> super quality - and if I can't afford, then lots of
> back-up replacements.  LOL.
>  
> For guns, I think I would think differently though, as I
> would guess there are probably personal safety issues
> involved. 
>  
>  
> 
> --- On Thu, 12/25/08, bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> wrote:
> 
> From: bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> To: cayadopi AT yahoo.com, homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Thursday, December 25, 2008, 10:06 AM
> 
> Good am and Merry Christmas to you, Leslie.  The jagged or
> serratted edge on on
> a hunting knife is for the same use as its function on any
> knife --sawing motion
> for tough cutting.
> 
> Personally, I would not waste my time with Chinese knives
> for future barter.  I
> realize the Chinese are now manufacturing for some of the
> better names, but that
> has badly  tarnished the reputation of some of those names.
>  All of the knives I
> curerently own , hunting or otherwise were made in Germany
> or the U.S.  I
> don't see a time where I would change that (there are
> very pricey knives of
> Japanese steel and manufacture and other such, but for a
> regular person, Germany
> or U.S. is always much better.
> 
> The same is true for other 'tools'.  Don't buy
> cheap Chinese
> knock-off pistol magazines,  Buy them from U.S. or country
> of origiin.  There
> are Chinese magazines that are fine, but you need to know
> which. 
> 
>  Cheaper is not better with tools.  Same applies to
> handtools.  I'll bet if
> someone like Don has any Chinese tools, they are carried as
> a set that might be
> lost or as a back-up because they were cheap.  Chinese
> tools are better than
> noithing, but usually not good enough to defray the fact
> that they will always
> be cheap tools.
> 
> Binoculars, I don't know.  My pair are from germany,
> but they are very old.
>  Japamese optics since the 60's have been excellent, I
> have read.
> 
> Steel might go back up in price, as will cheap, moderately
> priced, and
> expensive knives, when that occurs.  But, it is much more
> likely that pistol or
> rifle full capacity magazines will become more scarce and
> easier to barter, for
> there are now the present political considerations, also.
> 
> I don't know the best set of moderately priced
> wrenches, for example.  But,
> that might do you better than a big mean looking hunting
> knife for barter if
> that is your purpose.  
> 
> Many options .......  
> 
> If you know for a fact that you will be in that place for
> the future, and that
> it will be 'X' number of people; I would first
> concentrate (as you
> already are) on all of the needs and desires for those
> "X" people for
> whatever "Y" amount of time, you fear or plan
> that you might need. 
> After that , it is all a hedge.  Hedge with what you know
> best and think will
> travel best and will be most easily exchangable.
> 
> Good talking with you on this Christmas am
> .......................
> 
> 
> ----------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> 
> --- On Thu, 12/25/08, Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> wrote:
> 
> > From: Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> > Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> > To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> > Date: Thursday, December 25, 2008, 4:49 AM
> > A good contingency plan....
> >  
> >  
> >  
> > I suspect gold is a good vehicle for storing excess
> saved
> > wealth during very specific periods of time (collapse
> of
> > currency,hyperinflation) and as a way to pass on that
> wealth
> > to heirs without the taxman stealing any.  As well as
> a
> > currency two individuals can use for trade if there is
> an
> > agreement on value.
> >  
> > For immediate survival needs, tools, ammo etc a very
> good
> > investment.
> >  
> > I made another excellent "investment" this
> week
> > that I was able to get at wholesale prices, and
> I'm
> > thinking of getting more to use as barter.  Hunting
> knives
> > of various lengths, bone saws, filet knives, skinning
> > knives, general all purpose knives, field binoculars
> (with
> > surprisingly good optics).  And of course all made in
> > China.....  I figured since I don't know how to
> make
> > steel.... it's a good investment.
> >  
> > Question.... on the hunting knives.... some of them
> have
> > some wicked jagged edges on the upper side.  What is
> the
> > jagged edge really for?
> >  
> >  
> >  
> > Merry Xmas, all
> > 
> > --- On Wed, 12/24/08, rayzentz AT aim.com
> > <rayzentz AT aim.com> wrote:
> > 
> > From: rayzentz AT aim.com <rayzentz AT aim.com>
> > Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> > To: bobford79 AT yahoo.com, homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> > Date: Wednesday, December 24, 2008, 9:56 AM
> > 
> > You know, until recently, I was planning on buying
> more
> > gold, but figured it was
> > more prudent to stock up on items that may not be
> > available..., food, firearms,
> > ammo, tools, etc. Those may be of more value than
> gold, and
> > much more readily
> > "spendable"
> > Ray
> > 
> > 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> > To: cayadopi AT yahoo.com; homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> > Sent: Tue, 23 Dec 2008 10:41 am
> > Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Leslie my comments were specific to Dr. Fekete 's
> > meaning, using his own
> > words : 
> > 
> > 
> > " In the end, no one was willing to exchange gold
> and
> > silver coins for the
> > 
> > debased coinage of the empire."
> > 
> > Acoording to him, and others like him, I might add,
> the
> > gold never lost its 
> > value; the gold was never debased.  On the contrary,
> > because if its innate, 
> > intrinsic value, it was hoarded and hidden away, for
> there
> > was nothing left, 
> > proclaimed by fiat that had retained enough value that
> the
> > owners of gold were 
> > "willing to exchange" their gold.
> > 
> > Now, Fekete is an uber goldbug.  I find good points in
> alot
> > of his writing; but
> > 
> > other groups would call him hysterical or even a
> > 'nut'.
> > There are other finacial sites similar to financial
> > sense--the site that you 
> > quote.  Some or bigger, some smaller, but they all
> have
> > well written commentary
> > 
> > by many well educated ,sometimes prominent, men.  Each
> > commengtary makes
> > perfect 
> > sense until you read the next commentary.  There are
> many
> > historical analogies,
> > 
> > and different ways of interpreting those historical
> events.
> >  Even today, our 
> > best economists still disagree on what finally ended
> the
> > great depression, and 
> > that wasn't very long ago.
> > 
> > There is also the factor of price manipulation of
> > currencies (including gold if
> > 
> > you consider gold to be money) by governments and
> > financials cartels all
> > through 
> > history.  Much tales of manipulation are real and much
> is
> > the fabric of told
> > & 
> > yet untold conspiracy theories.
> > 
> > Dr. Fekete is just another very smart voice.  try
> > 321Gold.com,or  jsmineset.com
> > 
> > , for a bigger variety of commentary.  JSMineset is
> the
> > most prominent (along 
> > with the commentry section of Peter Schiff's
> > Europac.net.).  You seem to be
> > 
> > drifting toward to very worst case senario set; and
> you
> > could very well be 
> > right.  I'm still reading and thinking, having not
> yet
> > decided that anyone
> > is 
> > even close to perfecting predicting the future.  And,
> I
> > always 'hope'
> > for a 
> > better case scenario..:-) .............
> > 
> >
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >  
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > --- On Tue, 12/23/08, Leslie
> <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> > wrote:
> > 
> > > From: Leslie <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> > > Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> > > To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> > > Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 10:20 AM
> > > No I don't think I misinterpreted.
> > > ?
> > > In other things I have read, governments,
> serfdoms,
> > > kingdoms,?etc. practiced "clipping"
> coins
> > (i.e
> > > they cheated on the value of the coin).? The
> modern
> > day
> > > equivalent is clearly seen in US dimes and
> quarters,
> > which
> > > are no longer solid silver.? They have been
> clipped
> > > (filled) with other metals.? The US government is
> > cheating
> > > on the value of coins & paper currency.? The
> > exchange
> > > of X units of labor for a 100% silver dime, is
> now
> > exchanged
> > > for 1/100th% of the same amount of silver via
> > > "clipping"/cheating.? (Not an exact
> number,
> > but
> > > illustrative for argument.)? This has been a long
> > drawn out
> > > process of clipping both metal & paper
> currency in
> > the
> > > US?spanning some 80-90 years.
> > > ?
> > > The hoarding events that has lead to current time
> > > backwardation probably?has occured?in two
> stages.? The
> > > first being those who hid their gold from the
> > government
> > > confiscating it some 80-90 ago when the US made
> it
> > illegal -
> > > and passed it on to their children.? And the
> second
> > wave
> > > starting when the US made it legal to own gold
> again,
> > and
> > > then took us off the gold standard in the 1970s
> > triggering
> > > fear of monetary collapse.? I would venture there
> are
> > a lot
> > > of gold bugs who never sold any of the gold they
> > purchased
> > > in the 70s as back then they understood the
> collapse
> > of the
> > > fiat currency was underway regardless of how
> > many?years it
> > > would take - even if they bought at the top.? I
> know I
> > was
> > > in my early twenties, and I understood that back
> then
> > - that
> > > gold is to be hoarded and exchanged as the
> currency
> > finishes
> > > collapsing.
> > > ?
> > > Fekete explains hoarding was?a long drawn out
> event in
> > the
> > > W. Roman Empire, and in modern times we have a
> similar
> > event
> > > going on.
> > > ?
> > > Backwardation in part is telling us that fewer
> and
> > fewer
> > > people?hoardin
> > g gold/silver today are willing to exchange
> > > it for paper dollars or for those
> "clipped"
> > silver
> > > dimes and quarters that are no longer 100%
> silver.
> > > ?
> > > Currently the troops are still accepting below
> minimum
> > > wage(?) paid in the form of paper fiat
> currency.???If
> > the
> > > government doesn't increase their wages in
> sync
> > with
> > > hyperinflation - how long will they stay?? How
> can
> > they
> > > feed their families?? 
> > > ?
> > > There is no doubt in my mind that the US
> Gov't is,
> > and
> > > has been for a long time, bankrupt.? So far the
> US is
> > still
> > > paying debts by creating more and more currency
> out of
> > thin
> > > air.? How long people will continue to accept
> that
> > form of
> > > payment is another story.? I do believe we're
> > headed
> > > for a monetary hyperinflation phase, where the
> > currency
> > > collapses in the end.? (And not just the US, I
> believe
> > a
> > > lot of G-20s are going the same way.)
> > > ?
> > > What happens after that??
> > > ?
> > > >From what I've read, hyperinflations do
> not
> > end
> > > until governments stop issuing the?collapsing
> > currency,
> > > issue a new currency, and promise not to debase
> it by
> > > increasing the number of units circulating.? It
> > won't
> > > work until there is CONfidence that the
> government
> > will stop
> > > the clipping.??I wish I knew if that typically
> happens
> > > overnight, or if the next new currency?typically
> gets
> > > clipped again after a short period of
> CONfidence.?The
> > gold
> > > bugs may?hoard their gold, even if it means
> passing to
> > the
> > > next generation... meaning there is no
> centralized
> > price
> > > mechanism.
> > > ?
> > > How DO people value gold outside of a government
> > issued
> > > money system - which in part is what I
> interpreted
> > James to
> > > be talking about.? You can't eat it, but you
> can
> > use it
> > > to trade without others willing to accept it, but
> what
> > is
> > > the pricing mechanism?? 
> > > ?
> > > If the dollar collapses and people are still
> willing
> > to
> > > trade gold for say Euro, you have a pricing
> > mechanism.? If
> > > the Euro collapses, and the Canadian or NZDollar
> still
> > > sports a gold price, you can still exchange it,
> and so
> > on.?
> > > After that, how do people come to a cons
> > ensus of value - of
> > > fair value?? If no one is willing to trade for
> ANY
> > fiat
> > > currency, then what?
> > > ?
> > > The way I read Fekete's article is that
> during the
> > dark
> > > ages there was a period where you could not count
> on
> > > gold/silver being used as a medium of exchange.?
> It
> > may
> > > have been because there was no way to determine
> value
> > (i.e.
> > > how many grams would be worth a dozen eggs,
> etc.)? He
> > > states that gold/silver went into hiding never to
> > re-emerge
> > > during the lifetime of the original holders.? I
> assume
> > from
> > > that that it was passed on from generation to
> > generation
> > > until such time as there was a reason to swap out
> into
> > a
> > > different kind of currency or other medium of
> exchange
> > (as
> > > there have been many besides gold/silver).? Of
> course
> > back
> > > then, computers and modern transportation did not
> > exist to
> > > facilitate world wide trading.
> > > ?
> > > In a Dark Ages II type scenario, you can't
> eat
> > gold,
> > > can't wear it, can't heat with it.?
> However,
> > you
> > > can pass it to the next generation clandestinely
> and
> > avoid
> > > paying taxes to theiving governments.? LOL.? 
> > > ?
> > > I think Fekete is saying that gold/silver retains
> > value as
> > > a more wide-spread medium of exchange (whether in
> > physical
> > > metal or metal backed currency) only when their
> is
> > > wide-spread confidence in the governing body.? 
> > > ?
> > > Under a chaotic government(s) situation - and
> limited
> > > person to person gold/silver exchange - a large
> > > landowner/farmer MIGHT be willing to exchange his
> > excess
> > > food production for some gold IF his goal is to
> > acquire gold
> > > for his heirs or for a time when the governing
> body
> > can be
> > > trusted again.? However, a small farmer barely
> able to
> > > produce above his own needs is not going to swap
> his
> > one
> > > extra chicken for gold if he needs a horse shoe
> from
> > the
> > > blacksmith for his plow, and the blacksmith
> > doesn't want
> > > gold but needs to eat.
> > > ?
> > > I don't know if the US or the world will
> decsend
> > into
> > > another Dark Ages; I don't discount the
> > possibility -
> > > but I don't have any way of determining how
> far
> > out
> > > along the fat tail of a
> >  bell curve?the possibility?of a
> > > Dark Ages II needs to go.? Of if we will just
> return
> > to a
> > > more agrarian society, or what.
> > > ?
> > > One point that Fekete makes is that he foresees a
> time
> > when
> > > there would be no sellers of gold/silver.? I
> would
> > have to
> > > think about that for a long time.? But my first
> > thought, is
> > > maybe initially but, I think in time?some would
> be
> > willing
> > > to sell as a last resort (or not knowing the
> value) to
> > those
> > > who have excess production, who see gold/silver
> as a
> > future
> > > generation(s) way of preserving wealth.? 
> > > ?
> > > On your point, "Anyone who now believes
> things
> > will
> > > become 'that bad', should be out with
> ropes,
> > rifles,
> > > pitchforks, and whatever else will kill and maim
> those
> > in
> > > power who would allow such a thing to
> occur."
> > > ?
> > > True, but in truth WHO allowed it to occur?? WE
> DID.
> > WE
> > > who did not rise up in anger at the debasement of
> the
> > > currency and put a stop to it.? WE who understood
> the
> > > consequences and failed to teach values of
> exchange
> > and of
> > > production and self-preservation through our own
> > efforts.?
> > > WE DO deserve to get a new Dark Ages, not because
> we
> > are
> > > sitting and waiting for it, but because we failed
> to
> > > recognize the cause of it and failed to prevent
> it,
> > even
> > > with all of our accumulated knowledge of
> thousands of
> > years.
> > > ?
> > > Although ropes and guillotines won't be
> needed -
> > > starvation and disease will take care of it.
> > > ?
> > > Yes, it echoes of Ayn Rand, but to me it is the
> much
> > more
> > > accurate to blame "we" than those in
> power.
> > > ?
> > > ?
> > > PS CAPS are not "yelling",,,, but meant
> to
> > > emphasis on paper the words I would emphasis in
> > person.
> > > 
> > > 
> > > --- On Tue, 12/23/08, bobf
> <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> > > wrote:
> > > 
> > > From: bobf <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> > > Subject: Re: [Homestead] More on Gold
> > > To: cayadopi AT yahoo.com,
> homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> > > Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 11:04 AM
> > > 
> > > Leslie, I believe you mis-read Dr. Fekets's
> > intenet
> > > where he draws upon
> > > historical anaylis.  He wrote:
> > > 
> > > "............... causation goes in the
> opposite
> > > direction. The
> > 
> > > disappearance of gold and silver coins as a means
> of
> > > exchange was a
> > > long-drawn-out, cumulative event. In the end, no
> one
> > was
> > > willing to exchange
> > > gold and silver coins for the debased coinage of
> the
> > > empire. At that point the
> > > empire was bankrupt; it could no longer pay the
> troops
> > that
> > > defended its
> > > boundaries against the barbarians threatening
> with
> > > invasion.'......."
> > > 
> > > That is to say, that the gold and silver still
> > retained
> > > their value , in his
> > > opinion; but ttheir was nothing left in the fiat
> > system
> > > worth the trade value of
> > > the gold and silver.  And, if we are sitting and
> > waiting
> > > for a return of the
> > > "dark ages", we desrve whatever we get,
> > anyway. 
> > > Anyone who now
> > > believes things will become 'that bad',
> should
> > be
> > > out with ropes,
> > > rifles, pitchforks, and whatever else will kill
> and
> > maim
> > > those in power who
> > > would allow such a thing to occur.  Most of us
> think
> > we are
> > > witnessing a
> > > calamity, but not anything close to a repeat of
> the
> > > 'Dark Ages'.
> > > 
> > >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > --- On Tue, 12/23/08, Leslie
> > <cayadopi AT yahoo.com>
> > > wrote:
> > > 
> > > 
> > > > ?
> > > > Fekete writes an update on the outlook for
> the
> > value
> > > of
> > > > gold.? This one is quite interesting as he
> talks
> > > about what
> > > > happened to gold/silver during/after the
> collapse
> > of
> > > the
> > > > Western Roman Empire and the parallels to
> today.?
> > > History
> > > > supports James'?points a couple weeks
> > ago?that
> > > > gold/silvere will have zero value - the
> pricing
> > > mechanism
> > > > will be gone.
> > > > ?
> > > > Fekete warns that gold in backwardation in
> Dec
> > 2008,
> > > is
> > > > warning, is a premonition of what is coming
> down
> > the
> > > road.?
> > > > He believes there will be repeated instances
> of
> > > > backwardation, each more severe than the
> > preceeding,
> > > as
> > > > gold/silver go into hiding.? Hyperinflation
> and
> > > ultimately
> > > > the collapse of the monetary system - a
> point
> > where
> > > > gold/silver will not have a value either,
> because
> > > those
> > > > hoarding will not be willing to part with
> it,
> > until
> > > such
> > > > t
> > ime as confidence in a fiat currency returns.? 
> > > > ?
> > > > After the collapse of the Roman Empire we
> went
> > into
> > > the
> > > > Dark Ages, where payment in gold/silver
> could not
> > be
> > > taken
> > > > for granted - gold/silver went into hiding
> never
> > to
> > > > re-emerge during the lifetime of the
> original
> > > holders.?
> > > > Fekete warns that the disappearance of
> > gold/silver is
> > > > ominous.
> > > > ?
> > > >
> > > 
> > > 
> > >       
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> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
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> > 
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> 
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