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  • From: bob ford <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] More inflation - China trillion stimulus
  • Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2008 18:52:58 -0800 (PST)

Don is real good with this subject and very well read. I think he sees what
I see, which is bad, but I don't know if the bad will be inflationay,
deflationary or stagnant. So, it is hard to make decisions.

For someone like me, tied to the city, currently; I really need direction,
therefore I am reading as much as possible from as many sources as possible.
I am not a philospher, Like James. I just want to know direction, regardless
of what caused us to steer in that direction.

I pay attention to what James, Don, or anyone else is seeing and reading
that I haven't. I've probably picked up something from you. I get most of
my information from links where other people are discussing the subject. The
survivalist sites only tell you how to survive, generally. I have no
interest in living in a hole with a can of beans and 50,000 rounds of
ammunition.

What can happen between us and China, I believe can go one of two ways,
Either terrible war, there will be a billion p*ssed off broke and hungry
chinamen who , rightfully, want their money. We will not have their money,
and we don't have their manpower, but we do have the world's largest arsenal.

OR,

Nothing, everyone just as T.S. Eliot might think , walks sheepishly away

"

For Thine is the Kingdom

For Thine is
Life is
For Thine is the

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.


..................bobford


-----------------------------------------------------------------





--- On Sun, 11/9/08, Lynn Wigglesworth <lynnw1366 AT hotmail.com> wrote:

> From: Lynn Wigglesworth <lynnw1366 AT hotmail.com>
> Subject: Re: [Homestead] More inflation - China trillion stimulus
> To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
> Date: Sunday, November 9, 2008, 7:39 PM
> I keep wondering what things like that mean to this country.
> Will we have to
> have a big nation-wide yard sale to pay off our debt? Will
> the government
> give away states to our creditors? How does the world deal
> with a country as
> large as the US being potentially bankrupt? I suspect they
> will just have to
> suck it up and wait until we dig ourselves out to get their
> money back.
>
> Lynn Wigglesworth
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "bob ford" <bobford79 AT yahoo.com>
> To: <homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org>
> Sent: Sunday, November 09, 2008 8:06 PM
> Subject: [Homestead] More inflation - China trillion
> stimulus
>
>
> >I read an article by Nouriel Roubin, last week,
> indicating that something
> >like this was in the works (he is quoted in this
> article from today, also),
> > Other than the numbers, the most telling comment to me
> was that China is
> > no longer worried about tamping down inflation. They
> hold an awful lot of
> > our debt.................bobford
> >
> >
> >
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> > Notes On The News With Paul Maidment
> > China Announces Massive Stimulus Package
> > Paul Maidment, 11.09.08, 2:07 PM ET
> >
> >
> >
> > More From Paul Maidment
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Ever since it reported sharply slower economic growth
> in the third quarter
> > (9% vs. 10.4% for the first half) China's top
> officials have been
> > signaling that an economic stimulus package was coming
> to boost domestic
> > demand and that the tight monetary policy imposed
> earlier this year would
> > be eased.
> >
> > Today, China's media announced that the State
> Council, the country's
> > highest decision-making group, had approved at a
> meeting on Wednesday a
> > package of capital spending plus income and
> consumption support measures.
> > This confirms that damping down inflation in a runaway
> economy is no
> > longer the policy priority. The top economic concern
> is now arresting the
> > rapid slowdown in growth as a result of the slumps in
> China's exports in
> > the wake of the global financial crisis (see: "
> Cold Christmas For China's
> > Manufacturers" and " Economic View From
> Shenzhen").
> >
> > Four trillion yuan ($586 billion) will be spent on
> upgrading
> > infrastructure, particularly roads, railways, airports
> and the power grid;
> > on raising rural incomes via land reform; and on
> social welfare projects
> > such as affordable housing and environmental
> protection.
> >
> > The package also wraps in some of the disaster
> reconstruction spending
> > from last winter's abnormally severe weather, the
> Sichuan earthquake in
> > May and other natural disasters. It ties together many
> policy initiatives
> > already underway as the country's leadership tries
> to close a potentially
> > destabilizing income gap between the rich coastal
> cities and the poorer
> > interior countryside.
> >
> > In addition, China indicated a shift to
> "moderately easy" monetary policy.
> > After three interest rate cuts since mid-September,
> the easing in monetary
> > policy was a given. Lending limits on commercial banks
> are also being
> > lifted. A long-expected change in the way value-added
> tax is administered
> > will provide tax cuts, accounting for $17.5 billion of
> the package's
> > total, the state news agency Xinhua says.
> >
> >
> > The sums involved are substantial. By comparison, the
> U.S. pumped $100
> > billion into its economy in the summer via tax rebate
> checks. Germany has
> > just announced a $65 billion stimulus package. Both
> economies are larger
> > than China's.
> >
> > China's stimulus package amounts to nearly 15% of
> annual economic output
> > spread over barely two years. Another yardstick of its
> scale: In the Asian
> > financial crisis of 1998, China responded with a
> package worth just 1.2%
> > of gross domestic product.
> >
> > Beijing has little choice. As our columnist Nouriel
> Roubini wrote on Nov
> > 6:
> >
> > "In a country with the potential growth of China,
> a hard landing would
> > occur if the growth rate of the economy were to slow
> down to 5% to 6%, as
> > China needs a growth rate of 9% to 10% to absorb about
> 24 million folks
> > joining the labor force every year--it also needs to
> move about 12 million
> > to 14 million poor rural farmers every year to the
> modern industrial and
> > manufacturing urban sector.
> >
> > The whole social and political legitimacy of the
> Communist Party's regime
> > rests on continuing to deliver this high-growth
> transformation of the
> > economy. Therefore, a slowdown of growth from 12% to
> 5%-6% would be the
> > equivalent of a recession for China. And now a variety
> of macro indicators
> > suggest that China is indeed headed toward a hard
> landing."
> >
> > Four trillion yuan are intended to cushion the fall.
> >
> >
> http://www.forbes.com/business/2008/11/09/china-stimulus-economy-biz-cx_pm_1109notes.html
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
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> >
> >
> >
>
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