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["Don Bowen" <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>]

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The operant phrase here, says I, would be "anything they CAN do".   I heard
in '99 that the govenment would not allow the dot com stocks to tank because 
of
what it would do to the economy.  They tanked anyway. More recently we heard
that the could not be a housing crash, the government would never allow it.
It crashed (is crashing).
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The various bubble busts did not really threaten the government.  Sure some 
individuals and institutions lost money and therefore political influence 
but the government power was not really threatened.  Instead look at the 
September silliness where people felt those bad Islamists were out to get 
us.  The government felt threatened and significantly increased its power 
and we willingly allowed that to happen.

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Without gasoline and a maintained communications network, how much could the
modern government do?
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As supplies get tight and expensive who will have better access to the 
limited supplies?  If the tankers do not arrive as often and prices soar, 
who will get first dibs?   In local governments you will see school bus 
routes and library hours cut before there are cuts in police and fire.  As 
food gets expensive and jobs evaporate, the power structure and those with 
money will want to protect themselves first and that means that police, 
fire, military will continue to get the fuel and maintain communications.

Kunstler in his book failed to take into account our very nature.  Look at 
the days before instant communications and cheap oil.  For one thing we 
traveled a lot.  Not many people did the traveling but those that did spread 
news far and wide.  Trade has been an important part of our economy from the 
very earliest days.  Hunter gatherers traded stones and handicrafts along 
with news.  In many times a lone traveler would be welcomed for the news of 
the outside world.

Even now we have people who easily broadcast all over the world.  Ham radio 
operators and small nations broadcast information that can be picked up by 
simple home made receivers.  Much of that information is suspect even now 
but it is information none the less.  Again a government threatened could 
easily jam those signals but they cannot jam the entire spectrum.

In Kustlers book he mentions the failure of the grid.  He also mentions a 
small local hydro plant torn down and abandoned because it was uneconomical 
to keep it running.  That does happen and continues to happen but again the 
government will keep some things running just to keep itself in power. 
Remote rural areas may well be cut off but populated areas may not be.

It is all very complicated what will happen as we run out of oil.  Things 
will change, things will not be the same but they never have been.  We will 
have institutional memory going for us among other things.  The end of cheap 
energy will mean the end of the world as we know it but it will not mean a 
complete destruction with roving gangs stealing from everyone without an 
AK-47 and 10,000 rounds stored in the basement with the whiskey and 
cigarettes.

Times may well get tough.  The wealthy and powerful will do all in its power 
to retain and increase that wealth and power, the government included.  For 
some people like James, there will be little difference.  Maybe the 
telephone lines will not be maintained so Internet connectivity will stop. 
Maybe the power lines are not maintained so a shift to working while the sun 
shines and telling stories by beeswax candles.  But for some they will not 
know what to do as suburban house prices plummet because no one can afford 
to drive to work and jobs disappear from the multinationals.  This is the 
only life they can imagine.

Don Bowen      KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html