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[EarthNSky <erthnsky AT bellsouth.net>]

It looks like there is hope for drought relief for me since I am in NW 
GA. Not so much for the rest of the state, though. Where I live, La Nina 
winters mean lots of rain and snow...We gotta get more wood..

Bev


Oct. 25, 2007
Writer/Source: David Stooksbury (706) 583-0156 (stooks AT engr.uga.edu)
La Ni¤a pattern likely to prolong Georgia drought
By David Emory Stooksbury
University of Georgia
Athens, Ga. -- Drought conditions are expected to continue across much 
of Georgia through spring 2008 and may expand into southeast Georgia by 
spring. A La Niña climate pattern has developed, which increases the 
probability of a dry, warm winter and spring across most of the state.
Current predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 
Administration Climate Prediction Center are for a weak to moderate La 
Niña to persist through early 2008. The climate pattern may intensify 
during the next three months, according to the CPC.
The effects of the La Niña pattern differ with its strength. These 
differences are critical across north and central Georgia, potentially 
having major impacts on the current drought and the region's ability to 
recover this winter and spring.
A weak La Niña climate pattern typically brings a warm, dry winter and 
spring to south Georgia. However, under weak conditions, there is a 
transition zone across the piedmont region, with a tendency toward 
wetter-than-normal conditions across extreme north Georgia.
With a moderate to strong La Niña, the transition zone from dry winters 
and springs to wetter-than-normal conditions moves to the extreme 
northwest corner of Georgia. These conditions would make the entire 
state much more likely to have a dry, warm winter and spring.
Compared to a weak La Niña pattern, the average total rainfall across 
north Georgia for November through February is drier with a moderate 
pattern by 4.97 inches in Athens, 5.47 in Atlanta, 5.59 in Cornelia, 
7.75 in Gainesville and 7.23 in Rome. For spring (March through May), 
the moderate pattern is drier by 3.84 inches in Athens, 3.74 in Atlanta, 
2.77 in Cornelia, 3.33 in Gainesville and 0.88 in Rome.
Regardless of the strength of the current La Niña, there is a 
significant probability that central and south Georgia will have a warm, 
dry winter and spring. If the pattern becomes moderate to strong, a 
warm, dry winter and spring will be even more probable.
Across north Georgia, the strength of the La Niña will be critical in 
determining where the transition zone between drier- and 
wetter-than-normal winter and spring occurs. If the pattern is weak, the 
transition region will normally occur south of the mountains across the 
piedmont. If it's moderate, there is a high probability that all except 
the extreme northwest corner will be warm and dry through spring.
The CPC winter outlook is for below-normal precipitation statewide, with 
the probability ranging from greater than 65 percent in extreme 
southeast Georgia to 50-to-55 percent across the foothills into the 
mountains. Across middle Georgia, the probability of a drier-than-normal 
winter is about 60 percent.
The probability of a warmer-than-normal winter is greater than 60 
percent south of a line from near Columbus to near Lincolnton. North of 
this line, the probability of a warmer-than-normal winter ranges from 55 
percent to 60 percent.
The CPC spring outlook is drier than normal, with the probability 
greater than 60 percent across the southern coastal plain, between 55 
percent and 60 percent across the northern coastal plain into the 
piedmont and 50 percent to 55 percent across the foothills and mountains.
If a moderate La Niña pattern develops, there is a high likelihood that 
north and west Georgia won't be able to recover from the drought this 
winter.
The extreme- to exceptional-drought regions of the state may muddle 
through the winter and early spring. But without significant recharge of 
the soil moisture, groundwater, streams and reservoirs, conditions next 
summer could become catastrophic.
Regardless of the strength of the La Niña pattern, areas of southeast 
Georgia that aren't classified as being in drought could be experiencing 
drought conditions by spring.
Water-conservation and drought-management tips for home, garden, 
landscapes and pets can be found at 
www.caes.uga.edu/topics/disasters/drought/home/index.html.
Get updated drought information at www.georgiadrought.org. The Web site 
includes information on how to deal with the drought.
Updated weather information is at www.georgiaweather.net. This 
University of Georgia network has 71 automated weather stations statewide.
(David Emory Stooksbury is the state climatologist and a professor of 
engineering and atmospheric sciences in the University of Georgia 
College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences.)
--
Bevanron of EarthNSky Farm   Sleep well tonight, for somewhere in the 
ocean's depths, MY son is protecting YOUR freedom.