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[Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>]

At 6/13/2007, you wrote:

> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/76a4c516-18d6-11dc-a961-000b5df10621.html
>
>  >>World oil demand is rising faster than
> previously expected while non-Opec supply is
> growing more slowly, the International Energy
> Agency has said in its latest monthly assessment of the market.

Here is the EIA web site.  The report for June 6 has a very interesting 
chart for refinery utilization for the current year as compared to recent 
years.  It is way down which may explain part of the recent price 
increases.  The next report is due out sometime today.

What should be noted is the situation in the late 70s and early 80s.  Crude 
oil prices shot up and gasoline prices followed.  The oil companies 
dramatically increased exploration and drilling.  The new supplies forced 
prices down and lead to industry instabilities and mergers.  Instead of the 
two big players in the market at the time, Exxon and Mobil, we now have 
Exxon-Mobil.  There are other examples and the companies have learned a 
huge lesson and will not repeat the mistakes of 25 years ago.

As for world oil supplies.  Many large fields have peaked and production is 
at maximum and declining.  Countries are at the same time using more 
oil.  Even oil producing countries are using more energy to support growing 
populations.



Don Bowen              Awl Knotted Up                       KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.  
> From don.bowen AT earthlink.net  Wed Jun 13 12:44:38 2007
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From: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

This year, refinery outages and maintenance extending into the early part 
of summer have kept refinery utilization rates at roughly 90 percent. In a 
refining system where capacity is over 17 million barrels per day, 5 
percent can equate to nearly 900,000 barrels per day in additional crude 
oil inputs to refineries, providing at least that much in additional 
refined products. With 
<http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/figure03.pdf>crude 
oil inventories at the top of the average range, there is certainly enough 
additional crude oil that can be used in refineries, and with 
<http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/figure04.pdf>gasoline 
inventories well below the average range, there is certainly a need for 
more gasoline supply. While gasoline inventories have built in recent 
weeks, largely due to increased imports and higher blending activity, 
additional refinery production of gasoline would certainly help gasoline 
inventories rebuild to more normal levels more quickly than the current pace.


Don Bowen              Awl Knotted Up                       KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.  
> From don.bowen AT earthlink.net  Wed Jun 13 12:54:34 2007
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> The reason is that Russia has a far greater population and they are 
> wanting to use more and more of their own oil. Not only is the demand for 
> oil rising in countries with net oil imports, such as the US, but demand - 
> fueled by rising wealth from oil exports - is rising even faster in oil 
> producing countries and driving up the price even faster.

This is a key point that will make many things more uncertain.  Russian 
demand is easy enough to deal with as they do not have a rising population 
and the economy is still mired in communist thinking and state 
corruption.  On the other hand the middle east has an ever increasing 
population and is demanding more of the goodies provided by unlimited cheap 
energy.  They will be using more of their own energy and energy supplies 
decline.  That is why you see the rush to nuclear power in the area.

Of course while we loosen our sabers and throw threatening words at Iran, 
we are carefully ignoring an even more dangerous threat in the area, 
Pakistan.  They are getting more unstable by the day and they have nuclear 
weapons.



Don Bowen              Awl Knotted Up                       KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.  
> From shepperd AT austincc.edu  Wed Jun 13 13:05:53 2007
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Subject: Re: [Homestead] Oil demand rising faster than expected
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Add China's increased demand for oil products to that of Russia's and 
the results are impressive, possibly even staggering.  When one 
considers the current and possible future restrictions on oil 
production, without factoring in the declining supply, one should not 
be surprised at the rapid rise in the price of oil and oil products.

Jerry Shepperd


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rejoices in what he has.
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