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  • From: Don Bowen <don.bowen AT earthlink.net>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Oil demand ‘rising faster than expec ted’
  • Date: Wed, 13 Jun 2007 08:38:54 -0700

At 6/13/2007, you wrote:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/76a4c516-18d6-11dc-a961-000b5df10621.html

>>World oil demand is rising faster than
previously expected while non-Opec supply is
growing more slowly, the International Energy
Agency has said in its latest monthly assessment of the market.

Here is the EIA web site. The report for June 6 has a very interesting chart for refinery utilization for the current year as compared to recent years. It is way down which may explain part of the recent price increases. The next report is due out sometime today.

What should be noted is the situation in the late 70s and early 80s. Crude oil prices shot up and gasoline prices followed. The oil companies dramatically increased exploration and drilling. The new supplies forced prices down and lead to industry instabilities and mergers. Instead of the two big players in the market at the time, Exxon and Mobil, we now have Exxon-Mobil. There are other examples and the companies have learned a huge lesson and will not repeat the mistakes of 25 years ago.

As for world oil supplies. Many large fields have peaked and production is at maximum and declining. Countries are at the same time using more oil. Even oil producing countries are using more energy to support growing populations.



Don Bowen Awl Knotted Up KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.
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From: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

This year, refinery outages and maintenance extending into the early part of summer have kept refinery utilization rates at roughly 90 percent. In a refining system where capacity is over 17 million barrels per day, 5 percent can equate to nearly 900,000 barrels per day in additional crude oil inputs to refineries, providing at least that much in additional refined products. With <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/figure03.pdf>crude oil inventories at the top of the average range, there is certainly enough additional crude oil that can be used in refineries, and with <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/figure04.pdf>gasoline inventories well below the average range, there is certainly a need for more gasoline supply. While gasoline inventories have built in recent weeks, largely due to increased imports and higher blending activity, additional refinery production of gasoline would certainly help gasoline inventories rebuild to more normal levels more quickly than the current pace.


Don Bowen Awl Knotted Up KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
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I am omnivagant.
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The reason is that Russia has a far greater population and they are wanting to use more and more of their own oil. Not only is the demand for oil rising in countries with net oil imports, such as the US, but demand - fueled by rising wealth from oil exports - is rising even faster in oil producing countries and driving up the price even faster.

This is a key point that will make many things more uncertain. Russian demand is easy enough to deal with as they do not have a rising population and the economy is still mired in communist thinking and state corruption. On the other hand the middle east has an ever increasing population and is demanding more of the goodies provided by unlimited cheap energy. They will be using more of their own energy and energy supplies decline. That is why you see the rush to nuclear power in the area.

Of course while we loosen our sabers and throw threatening words at Iran, we are carefully ignoring an even more dangerous threat in the area, Pakistan. They are getting more unstable by the day and they have nuclear weapons.



Don Bowen Awl Knotted Up KI6DIU
http://www.braingarage.com
My travel journal
http://www.braingarage.com/Dons/Travels/journal/Journal.html

I am omnivagant.
From shepperd AT austincc.edu Wed Jun 13 13:05:53 2007
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Subject: Re: [Homestead] Oil demand rising faster than expected
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Add China's increased demand for oil products to that of Russia's and the results are impressive, possibly even staggering. When one considers the current and possible future restrictions on oil production, without factoring in the declining supply, one should not be surprised at the rapid rise in the price of oil and oil products.

Jerry Shepperd


Forget injuries, never forget kindnesses.
-- Confucius

He is a man of sense who does not grieve for what he has not, but rejoices in what he has.
-- Epictetus

What matters is not what you learn but what you teach.
-- Michael Josephson

Live simply. Love generously. Care deeply. Speak kindly.
Leave the rest to God...








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