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  • From: Clansgian AT wmconnect.com
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: Re: [Homestead] Oil demand ‘rising faster than expected’
  • Date: Wed, 13 Jun 2007 10:19:32 EDT

In a message dated 6/13/2007 8:43:41 AM Eastern Daylight Time,
becida AT comcast.net writes:


> The IEA now expects demand for oil to rise by

> 1.7m barrels a day this year compared to last

> year – an increase of about 2 per cent – and

> non-Opec oil supply to rise by just 900,000 b/d.

> That rise in demand is 167,000 b/d more than the

> IEA had previously estimated, while the rise in

> non-Opec supply is 97,000 b/d less

It's worse than that. The IEA is considered by many who watch the world oil
situation to be a cheering section for the oil industry and always reporting
the absolute rosiest picture the data will allow (with some bending). The
IEA's projections are to be taken with the same amount of confidence that the
NAR's projections about the bursting of the housing bubble being a minor and
expected correction, and then only affecting certain areas (location,
location,
location!!).

Both OPEC and non-OPEC production are declining. The reported rise is a
clever massage of the data. In the entire history of the oil age, there has
always been a swing producer so that when demand exceeded supply, the swing
producer could opan the spigot and moderate prices. Until 1970 the swing
producer
was the US, since then it has been Saudi Arabia. Until this year.

In the early winter those speculating on whether the wold had reached Peak
Oil said that if supply exceeded demand in the early summer and Saudi Arabia
increased production to offset the demand, it would be proof that we were not
yet
at Peak Oil. But if demand rose and Saudi Arabia did not act as swing
producer and fill the demand, giving whatever reason or excuse, it was very
strong
evidence that SA was at their peak production. SA being at peak production
is
about like saying the world is at peak production.

SA's output is declining and the decline in the world oil supply is being
filled by Niger and Russia and other producers. All other major oil
producers
are in decline: Saudi Arabia, Mexico, North Sea, Alaska, Venezuela, etc.

Also there is the phenomenon that as money from the sale of oil is pouring
into oil producing countries, the demand for a oil based lifestyle of
automobiles and air conditioning is rising. For example, the country that
produces more
oil than any other is .......

Russia. Not Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia EXPORTS more oil than any other, but it is second in produciton.
The reason is that Russia has a far greater population and they are wanting
to use more and more of their own oil.

Not only is the demand for oil rising in countries with net oil imports, such
as the US, but demand - fueled by rising wealth from oil exports - is rising
even faster in oil producing countries and driving up the price even faster.

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