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[tvoivozhd <tvoivozd AT infionline.net>]

How many people can afford to pay a half million dollars for a house?  
And what kind of people---those who stare uncomprehendingly at a 
tsunami?  It is possible for bears to make some money in a market, 
possible for bulls to make money in a market, but over and over again 
I've seen hogs go broke---when high drilling costs and cheap oil wiped 
out the oil business in Texas and thousands of homes sold for ten 
percent of their former price.  You never want to sell at the bottom of 
a market, and it is really dumb to try to catch the peak, when the only 
direction has to be down and the speed of the drop is unknown.


 Los Angeles Daily News


*Home sales' new high*
December totals push state toward '04 record
*By Gregory J. Wilcox
Staff Writer*

*Wednesday, January 26, 2005* - The median price of a California home 
jumped 18 percent to a record $474,480 in December, capping what will 
likely be a record year for sales, an industry tracker reported Tuesday.

The median price jumped by double-digits in every region of the state, 
according to the California Association of Realtors.

Last month sales inched up 1.4 percent from a year ago to an annualized 
total of 645,860 units, the association said. That's the number of sales 
that would occur if the market matched December's record-shattering pace 
all year.

The final count is still being tallied, but sales last year are expected 
to be about 3 percent higher than the 2003 record of 601,770 transactions.

"Six months ago we had anticipated that sales in the second half of 2004 
would slow down a bit and that certainly wasn't the case," said Robert 
Kleinhenz, the association's deputy chief economist.

In Los Angeles County the median price soared 22.8 percent to $463,450. 
Sales increased an annual 1.5 percent.

Ventura County's median price increased 25.3 percent to $612,460 and 
sales fell 11.2 percent.

The High Desert, which includes the Antelope Valley, had the 
second-biggest price jump, 42 percent, in the state. The median price 
there is $244,410, the state's lowest. Sales in this market jumped 11.2 
percent.

Supply tightened again, too, dipping to 2.8 months from 3.5 months in 
November. That's how long it would take to burn through listings at the 
current sales pace.

Surprisingly, buyers still caught an interest-rate break.

Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 5.75 percent during 
December, down from 5.88 percent a year ago.

The resale market should remain strong into the first quarter.

"We're showing the same trends. And it looks as if the current trends 
will be staying in place," said John Karevoll, an analyst at market 
tracker DataQuick Information Systems.

Gregory J. Wilcox, (818) 713-3743 greg.wilcox AT dailynews.com 
<mailto:greg.wilcox AT dailynews.com>