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  • From: tvoivozhd <tvoivozd AT infionline.net>
  • To: homestead AT lists.ibiblio.org
  • Subject: [Homestead] The lull before the real estate storm
  • Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2005 12:15:30 -0500

How many people can afford to pay a half million dollars for a house? And what kind of people---those who stare uncomprehendingly at a tsunami? It is possible for bears to make some money in a market, possible for bulls to make money in a market, but over and over again I've seen hogs go broke---when high drilling costs and cheap oil wiped out the oil business in Texas and thousands of homes sold for ten percent of their former price. You never want to sell at the bottom of a market, and it is really dumb to try to catch the peak, when the only direction has to be down and the speed of the drop is unknown.


Los Angeles Daily News


*Home sales' new high*
December totals push state toward '04 record
*By Gregory J. Wilcox
Staff Writer*

*Wednesday, January 26, 2005* - The median price of a California home jumped 18 percent to a record $474,480 in December, capping what will likely be a record year for sales, an industry tracker reported Tuesday.

The median price jumped by double-digits in every region of the state, according to the California Association of Realtors.

Last month sales inched up 1.4 percent from a year ago to an annualized total of 645,860 units, the association said. That's the number of sales that would occur if the market matched December's record-shattering pace all year.

The final count is still being tallied, but sales last year are expected to be about 3 percent higher than the 2003 record of 601,770 transactions.

"Six months ago we had anticipated that sales in the second half of 2004 would slow down a bit and that certainly wasn't the case," said Robert Kleinhenz, the association's deputy chief economist.

In Los Angeles County the median price soared 22.8 percent to $463,450. Sales increased an annual 1.5 percent.

Ventura County's median price increased 25.3 percent to $612,460 and sales fell 11.2 percent.

The High Desert, which includes the Antelope Valley, had the second-biggest price jump, 42 percent, in the state. The median price there is $244,410, the state's lowest. Sales in this market jumped 11.2 percent.

Supply tightened again, too, dipping to 2.8 months from 3.5 months in November. That's how long it would take to burn through listings at the current sales pace.

Surprisingly, buyers still caught an interest-rate break.

Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 5.75 percent during December, down from 5.88 percent a year ago.

The resale market should remain strong into the first quarter.

"We're showing the same trends. And it looks as if the current trends will be staying in place," said John Karevoll, an analyst at market tracker DataQuick Information Systems.

Gregory J. Wilcox, (818) 713-3743 greg.wilcox AT dailynews.com <mailto:greg.wilcox AT dailynews.com>







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